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Thread: Syria in 2017 (April-December)

  1. #221
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    http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2017/...kurdish-areas/

    WELL worth reading


    Analysis: Crackdown Continues in Syrian Kurdish Areas

    by Kyle Orton


    The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) controls areas of northern Syria, operating under the name of the Democratic Union Party or PYD (its political wing) and the People’s Protection Units or YPG (its military wing). On Tuesday, President Donald Trump approved plans to arm the YPG directly, abandoning a fiction that the U.S. was only arming the Arab parts of an ostensible coalition, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is in fact controlled by the YPG/PKK. This is in preparation for the U.S. backing the “SDF” to liberate Raqqa City, the Syrian capital of the Islamic State’s (IS) caliphate. Leaving aside the geopolitical implications of the U.S. decision for NATO and regional order, and putting aside, too, the likelihood that this decision will defeat its own purposes and give IS a new lease on life, there is a purely humanitarian dimension that deserves more attention. In March the PYD effectively legalized its one-party state in northern Syria and escalated its already-severe persecution of the Kurdish opposition. That crackdown has continued.

    THE NATURE OF THE PYD/YPG

    The PYD/YPG is a fully integrated component of the PKK, recognised as a terrorist organisation by the European Union, NATO, and numerous individual governments, including the United States, Britain, Germany, and of course Turkey, against which the PKK has run an insurgency since 1984. The PKK was formally founded in 1978 in Turkey by Abdullah Ocalan. Ideologically, the organization mixed Marxism-Leninism and Kurdish nationalism, though the personality cult around Ocalan (“Apo”) was and is very strong. The PKK fought initially for secession and later for autonomy in the Kurdish-majority areas of Turkey.

    The PKK is a severely authoritarian organisation. It spent the years leading up to its formal foundation—and indeed the years afterward, until the Turkish coup d’état in September 1980 drove the PKK from the country—attacking other Kurds and Leftists, trying to monopolize the support from that part of the Kurdish political spectrum. This did not stop. In 1985, the PKK struck down Cetin Gungor (Semir) in Sweden after he advocated internal democratic procedures. After the PKK launched its war against the Turkish state from bases in Iraq it gained considerable popularity, which is unsurprising, given the long history of anti-Kurdish discrimination by the authorities in the Turkish republic, and the especial savagery of the post-1980 junta. Ocalan used this wave of popular assent to conduct a bloody purge of those he thought might pose a future threat to his leadership, correctly calculating that this would not get much attention when set against the fact that the long-awaited war had finally begun.

    Kurdish support for the PKK was not unanimous. Significant parts of the Kurdish population in Turkey sided with the state and formed militias in their villages to keep the PKK out, for example. The PKK also created Kurdish antagonists by insisting that it was the only legitimate representative of Kurdish opinion and its ruthless dealings with the large number of dissenters from this, who were and are labelled “traitor Kurds”. Forced conscription and “taxes” (extortion) imposed by the PKK on populations under its rule have obvious advantages in military-insurgency terms, but diminishing returns do set in.

    The PKK began setting up local organizations in the mid-2000s, primarily in Syria and Iran but also to a lesser degree in Iraq. The intention was to hide its hand, so it could better embed in populations that were suspicious of it because of its collaboration with their governments, and to avoid the international terrorism designation, especially in the War on Terror environment after 9/11. Despite claims that the group transitioned at this point from old-line Stalinism to a form of eco-anarchistic stateless democracy called “Democratic Confederalism,” in practice old habits have remained.

    BACKGROUND TO THE CRACKDOWN

    The PYD/PKK made “Decree Number Five,” built out of an ordinance issued in April 2014, operational as of 13 March 2017. It requires the registration of “unlicensed” political parties on penalty of closing their offices. The PYD has not troubled itself with elections since it gained territory via Bashar al-Assad’s withdrawal in July 2012, but has nonetheless presented itself as the sole legitimate representative of Syrian Kurds and worked to suppress opposition. It has a long record of attacking peaceful demonstrators, ransacking the offices of political groups, and jailing, exiling, and even killing journalists, activists, and others.

    The PYD has arrested dozens of opponents every year it has been controlling territory, and has taken in hundreds of de facto prisoners as conscripts. Last summer this intensified, with Ibrahim Biro, the leader of the Kurdish opposition umbrella group, the Kurdish National Council (KNC or ENKS), being expelled from Rojava, as the PYD calls the areas it controls, and told he would be killed if he returned. A dozen KNC members were abducted in the days that followed, including Hassan Saleh, who had been imprisoned multiple times for his resistance to the Assad regime. When protests against this conduct broke out, they were violently quelled and more KNC members were kidnapped the following day.

    No less than thirty oppositionists were abducted over a two-day period before the passage of Decree Number Five. Independent events pertaining to International Women’s Day were broken up, with women arrested and one doctor stabbed by PYD youth. A women’s union that publicly resisted the demand that it submit itself for approval by the PYD was burned to the ground the day after the decree came into effect. The PYD had raided, sacked, and sealed numerous opposition offices before the decree, and within five days of passing the total stood at forty-four. The repression continued through March.

    THE CURRENT WAVE OF THE CRACKDOWN

    On 23 March, Amin Omar, a teacher in Derik (Al-Malikiya), was kidnapped by the PYD. Omar’s “crime” is that he is the brother of Hussein Omar, a member of the Kurdish Union Party, usually known as the Yekiti Party, a constituent of the KNC. Hussein himself was kidnapped and detained between 9 February 2017 and 20 March. Fuad Ibrahim, a youth officer with the KNC, was arrested by the PYD on 25 March. This led to protests by Kurds aligned with the KNC in Germany, where there is a very large diaspora population (and extensive PKK networks), on 27 March, demanding that the PYD be put on the terrorism list.

    Ahmad Harran al-Motawab, a 16-year-old boy, was killed fighting for the PYD/YPG in Shadadi on 2 April. Al-Motawab had tried to flee Rojava to Turkey eighteen months ago, but was arrested at a PYD checkpoint. That was the last his family heard of him. As it now transpires, al-Motawab had become one of the YPG’s many child soldiers. On 10 April, Farhad Muhammad Othman, a shopkeeper in Dirbesiya, a town in northern Hasaka along the Turkish border, was arbitrarily detained by the PYD. The “taxation” policy also became a particular issue of contention in Kobani in April.

    The PYD moved against the headquarters of the KNC in Qamishli on 9 May, arresting thirteen people:
    1.Fasla Yusef
    2.Muhsin Taher
    3.Muhammad Amin Hussam
    4.Narin Matini
    5.Mahmud Mala
    6.Abdul Samad Khalaf Biro
    7.Fathi Kado
    8.Ahmad Aje
    9.Mahmud Haj Ali
    10.Farhad Tama
    11.Nooradeen Fatah
    12.Taher Hassaf
    13.Qasim Sharif

    The PYD has released ten of the thirteen, but continues to detain Ms. Fasla Yusef, the vice president of the KNC, Muhsin Taher, and Muhammad Amin Hussam.

    It was reported that in separate operations on 9 May, the PYD abducted another four KNC officials, two of them women, from their homes in Qamishli, and closed down the offices of the Germany-based Democracy Centre for the Human Rights.

    There is a claim from this morning that yesterday the PYD’s security forces, the Asayish, raided a village in Hasaka Province searching for Rami al-Turki, a young man who had been conscripted by the YPG before deserting. Al-Turki allegedly hid, until the PYD began threatening his family by, inter alia, firing in the air, at which point he charged them. In the ensuing melee, it is alleged that at least four civilians, including al-Turki, and three YPG militiamen were killed.

    CONCLUSION

    Most often the PYD settles for short-term arrest as a scare tactic, which can be effective, not least because time in PYD prisons so often includes torture. There are other occasions when those apprehended are either kept in custody over long periods (the PYD still holds political prisoners it abducted in 2012), expelled from the Syrian Kurdish areas, or killed. A notable case is Kawa Khaled Hussein, a member of the Kurdish opposition Azidi Party, who was tortured to death in PYD custody.

    It would be a positive development if the U.S. used its leverage to insist that the PYD cease its attacks on Kurdish opposition groups and allowed space for diversity of opinion. However, there are reasons to be sceptical that this is possible, relating to the PYD’s very nature.

    “The PYD’s terrorist practices reveal the hypocrisy of its claims regarding its democratic attitude,” the KNC said in a press release on 11 May; “they attest to the PYD’s … growing isolation from the population.” This is what the KNC is expected to say. It is also true. As The International Crisis Group recently noted, the PYD remains focused on Turkey, holding to the PKK line.

    Continued....

  2. #222
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    "Behind the smoke screen of [#PYD] egalitarian ideology, the Kurdish national project manifests"
    http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/f...as-new-capital

    "By relying on the #YPG in the fight against #ISIS, U.S. is helping one terror group fight against another."
    — U.S. amb. to Syria, 2011-14

    Amb @fordrs58 on the nature of the U.S.'s chosen partners in #Syria and the long-term disaster it's setting up.

    The Fatal Flaw in Trump's ISIS Plan
    Can he keep both the Turks and the Kurds on his side?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-raqqa/525963/

    Azor.......head's up.....
    Aleppo: #YPG released dozens of arrested Arab refugees in #Manbij and gave them 1-week ultimatum to leave #YPG-controlled areas.


    AND that is not ethnic cleansing?????

    Manbij is and was Arab....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 04:56 PM.

  3. #223
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    PYD spokesperson wrote for @NYTimes of group's democratic character, just after it abducted 13 Kurdish dissidents.
    https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...y-terror-laws/

    Media, Democracy, and Terrorism Laws

    By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 13 May 2017

    The New York Times on 11 May carried an op-ed entitled, “Once We Beat ISIS, Don’t Abandon Us,” by Sinam Mohamad, the effective foreign minister of the governance structure in northern Syria administered by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian departments of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This comes just over two weeks after another senior PYD/PKK official, Ilham Ahmed, was given space to disseminate the group’s messaging in The Washington Post, and the problems remain the same.

    Ms. Mohamad—like Ms. Ahmed—was not identified by her party affiliation, and was instead identified as the “foreign envoy for the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria”. This slight deception conceals the larger issue of the PYD’s nature, a totally integrated component of the PKK’s transnational edifice. Ms. Mohamad claims that the PYD/YPG and their front-groups, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), “are not the P.K.K.” This is to be expected since the PKK is a registered terrorist organization by NATO, the E.U., Britain, Germany, the United States, and others.

    The PYD is backed in this contention of a distinction between the YPG/SDF and the PKK by the United States government, which—as best it can—retains this fiction in order to circumvent its own terrorism laws and work with the SDF against IS. The Western press has also adhered to this, presenting this matter, when it is mentioned at all, as a contest between “Turkey’s view” of the YPG as an extension of the PKK and the YPG/SDF’s denial of that—a faux neutral posture of even-handedness, rather than objectivity. The objective stance might raise uncomfortable questions about how media organizations should deal with blacklisted groups.

    Ms. Mohamad uses the platform to attack the Turkish government. Brusquely
    dismissing Ankara’s fears that Rojava, as the PYD calls the area it controls, would become a launchpad for the PKK’s insurgency inside Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to be “no friend to the Kurds in Syria or in his own country” and to want to “decimate Rojava simply because his regime cannot tolerate a pluralistic democracy that includes the Kurds right next door”.

    The history of harsh discrimination against Kurds by the Turkish republic is well enough known. It has improved from the days of the Kemalist junta in the 1980s and 1990s, but there is still a long way to go. Turkey’s government has made headway in terms of human rights generally since the coup of 1980, but, again, the recent authoritarian backsliding is plain for all to see. This does not negate the fears the Turkish government has about a PYD-run enclave, which as mentioned above are well-founded, and would be shared by any government in Turkey of any ideological character. Indeed, it is quite likely that Turkey would have moved against the PYD long before now if the General Staff were still running things.

    It is the matter of democracy on which Ms. Mohamad chooses to place her emphasis, and it is here that the most glaring deficiencies with the op-ed become evident. There are references to the “unique democratic system” being built by the PYD and their “interest [in] promoting a federated system of local democracy in Syria”.

    The key paragraph is:

    Not only is our aim to fight against the Islamic State—and not Turkey—but we are also fighting for democracy, for a just and inclusive society in which Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs, Turkmen and other ethnic groups in our diverse area of Syria govern together, where women and men have an equal voice, protected by law. In city after city that we have liberated, whether majority Kurdish or not, we have given residents the opportunity to form their own democratic local governments. [Emphasis original.]

    This is textbook from the PYD, framing its state-building project in Syria in universalist, liberal terms as a means of defeating the Islamic State (IS). Parts of this are even true. The PYD has proven—with the provision of weapons, intelligence, logistics, and massive air power—an efficient partner for the international Coalition against IS. The PYD is also the only organization situated to begin an operation to evict IS from its capital, Raqqa City, if the priority is to begin that operation now and the assumption is that IS’s defeat can be measured in the square-miles it controls. But this is only part of the story.

    In terms of sustainably defeating IS, the U.S. has at least paid lip-service to the idea that liberated populations must be governed by institutions they see as legitimate. Many Arab populations, Raqqa included, are hostile to the PYD’s political program. This led the U.S. to the idea of using the PYD/YPG to liberate Arab-majority cities and then letting locals to govern themselves, which Ms. Mohamad says has been the PYD practice. This was tried in Minbij. It quickly went wrong, with locals chafing under the Minbij Military Council, a poorly-disguised PKK proxy. (This helped damage U.S.-Turkey relations, since the Turks had supported the PYD/PKK-led Minbij operation, on condition that these forces left the city after liberation.) And that was long before the PYD began handing areas of Minbij over to the coalition of forces supporting Bashar al-Assad, which we can assume will not have democratization as a priority. The U.S. had imagined that Minbij could be the model for Raqqa—and of course it probably will be.

    Meanwhile, this stress on ethnic diversity from the PYD is a useful mask for its political monopoly. The PYD has not generated a unique governance model: it inherited institutions almost wholesale from the Assad regime, which continues to operate alongside the PYD and to maintain key parts of the PYD statelet’s infrastructure. This is part of the reason some Kurds compare the PYD to the Ba’ath Party. The other reason is its intolerance of dissent. As Ms. Mohamad’s op-ed went into print, the PYD had just arrested thirteen more Kurdish political opponents, kidnapped four others from their homes, and shut the offices of an NGO. Hundreds of Kurdish dissidents have been arrested, tortured, or beaten up by PYD-directed mobs since 2012-13, with many more expelled and dozens murdered by live-fire against peaceful protesters, extra-judicial assassinations, and maltreatment in prisons. The persecution of the Kurdish opposition in PYD-held areas has escalated since March when the PYD legalized its one-party system. This is not quite the image that the PYD presents to Western audiences.

    The PYD’s suppression of dissent matters when calibrating how deeply the West should get involved with the party. The engagement began militarily, against IS. The PYD’s conciliatory relations with the regime made it into the primary U.S. anti-IS partner, since it allowed—so it appeared—U.S. engagement solely on a counter-terrorism basis. The problem, even in narrow anti-IS terms, is that the Arab opposition, not the PYD, are the force demographically capable of holding the territory IS is cleared from, and they would insist on continuing the anti-Assad fight. Regardless, the tactical decision to support the PYD is defensible to keep IS out of the Kurdish-majority areas. There is no geopolitical rationale to get more deeply politically entangled with the PYD, however: it damages the NATO alliance at a time when Russia is on the march, and it degrades a bilateral relationship with an incredibly strategically-positioned ally for the sake of a militia, landlocked in a corner of Syria, whose only non-hostile relations are with the pro-Assad coalition. If the PYD truly embodied the West’s values, it might make a case for risking relations on their behalf, but this is not so.

    It is fair for the PYD to insist they are owed a debt for their collaboration with the Coalition against IS, and some kind of autonomy would seem to be a reasonable price. Decentralization is in Syria’s future anyway, and Kurdish self-government is a just cause. But supporting the party itself, rather than independent institutions in the Syrian Kurdish areas, cements in place a PYD autocracy that has limited local buy-in, setting up a long-term crisis when such a brittle system buckles, as such systems always do.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 04:29 PM.

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BREAKING - @StateDept’s Stu Jones says newly declassified info will shortly be released, detailing “the depth” of #Assad’s crimes in #Syria.

    US accuses Syria of killing thousands of prisoners and burning the dead bodies in large crematorium outside Damascus.

    @StateDept’s Stu Jones:

    - ‘The #Assad regime abducted 65,000-117,000 people from 2011-2015 & practiced extrajudicial mass executions.'


    WOW: @StateDept’s Stu Jones:

    - ‘We now believe the #Assad regime has installed a crematorium at Sednaya prison, to dispose of bodies.'

    @StateDept’s Stu Jones asked if military action could target crematorium:

    - ‘We’re not going to signal what we’re going to do’

    Jones says Russia and Iran have nothing to do with the crematorium in world notorious Sendaya prison.

    Jones says the US hasn't presented this evidence to the Russians but we urged Moscow to hold the regime responsible for such atrocities.
    Odd to be doing this just as reports emerge that US plan is to hand Raqqa back to Assad after ISIS is gone.

    BUT WAIT...AI has reported on this far earlier than the DoS....

    Thousands of executed prisoners in #Syria cremated." Amnesty reported 13,000 killed 2011-5
    http://saydnaya.amnesty.org
    https://www.axios.com/us-syria-killi...tent=textshort
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 04:50 PM.

  5. #225
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    Hama: #Assad warplanes bombing #Lataminah area in Northern #Hama today.

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    Assad: "We need #Al_Tanf to cut supply route of #ISIS towards #Mosul."
    #Iran: "We need #Al_Tanf to fight the Grand Satan (USA)."


    For Assad, "fighting ISIS" means moving troops into the area after rebels have cleared ISIS from it.
    http://bit.ly/2r966nv

    New joint border checkpoint by #FSA in #Syria & tribal forces in #Iraq to protect borders and trucks passing btwn both countries from #ISIS.

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    I made an album of ~40 IS-made rocket launchers documented captured by ISF in W. Mosul. Widespread use indicated
    http://imgur.com/a/YFZCh
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Default To OUTLAW 09 RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    You really do not see that if the US wants and or needs allies for anything that they cannot themselves can handle creditability [sic] is critical...while Trump AND notice again it is NATO debating more troops to AFG while Trump dallies around on what he wants to do...

    You seem to not notice what Merkel is indicating what counts against the NATO defense spending 2%...foreign aid, humanitarian aid and the number of African mission sets that both Germany, European members of NATO have been providing WHEN the US has largely not participated in that assistance.

    Check the aid amounts vs GDP of both Germany and US....

    And check her statement from yesterday....EU..has the largest market, the large economy and the largest amount of troops....on the ground in Europe and the US has to send troops over because they pulled out of remaining in Europe....

    THEN track the amount of NATO SOF that has been rotating in and out of Iraq, AFG and now Syria...they have as much combat times as does US SOF units....AND that does not count towards the 2% under the new Trump rules....

    BTW...want to take bets on a Trump impreachment....right now running 90 to 10% that he does not remain past one year..even the UK betting offices do not give him a chance either....

    zor...and Europe needs to follow this Trump WH??...really you must admit creditability means everything in FP????

    This is the actual White House statement following NK missile test. See 2nd line. HAS White House now entered the state of permanent self-parody?

    BTW...Russian MoD statement...not a problem as it impacted 500kms from Russian borders....

    BUT WAIT...all those Trump aggressive tweets along with TLAMs and one MOAB and this statement is all we get...come on Azor Trump can do better than that??
    Attached Images

    Azor...this is what I mean...Trump simply has no creditability

    Trump relying on charisma to bridge old divides on first foreign trip

    The White House is seeking to recast the US president as a world statesman, but critics say his confidence in his own persuasive powers is simply delusional.
    Firstly, the issue is the level of contribution to collective defense not international peacekeeping. European contributions to UN missions in Africa and aid have not made Europe more secure, given that millions of Africans still seek work and welfare in Europe. Indeed, the 2011 intervention in Libya had more of an impact on European security than Europe’s other efforts in Africa have. The only NATO members where humanitarian or foreign aid plus defense spending reaches the 2% of GDP target are Denmark and Norway, not France or Germany. As for Denmark and Norway, helping out in Africa won't make a difference if they clash with Russia in the Arctic. If that scenario occurs, it will be the U.S. and Royal Navies that get there first. Oslo is more interested in investing its oil profits in micro-finance and green energy than on defense or - heaven forbid - returning the taxpayers' money to the taxpayers.

    It could very well be argued that Europe can afford the luxury of humanitarian dabbling in Africa precisely because of U.S. conventional and nuclear protection. For instance, Canada emerged from World War II with a very large and capable military by default, and leveraged this new power into a peacekeeping role. Yet Canada hollowed out its military throughout the Cold War to the point that it was incapable of deploying even token forces on peacekeeping missions during much of the 1990s, and now its global “role” exists primarily in the minds of Canadians.

    Secondly, Merkel is undoubtedly the worst German postwar leader, whose policies have threatened the stability of Germany and the European integration process. Despite her apparent knowledge of Russia and Putin, she did nothing to prepare for a harsh Russian response to the Ukrainian Revolution of 2014, when the EU’s “soft power” was met with Russian hard power. Germany is the paymaster of the EU and so Merkel could not have been unaware of developments in Ukraine prior to late 2013; her government also took a keen interest in the fate of Timoshenko and other opponents of Yanukovych. Yet there was no grand strategy, which would have factored in energy sources as much as defense spending, and as usual it is the responsibility of the United States to ensure that Russia does not start gnawing on NATO’s borders. Unfortunately, despite being a permanent fixture in the Chancellory and an Albatross in German politics, Merkel is a mere caretaker whose reactive policies are more impulsive and naïve than her current counterpart in the White House.

    Thirdly, Afghanistan will remain an open sore permanently, because true Pashtun self-determination is an existential threat to Pakistan, because Pakistan’s antidote to Pashtun nationalism is Islamist Pashtunwali, and because Pashtunistan is a haven for narcotics and terrorism. Hopefully Trump will retreat to the northern areas of Afghanistan and use special forces and UCAVs to police the south.

    Lastly, if European NATO was so capable, why couldn't it:

    • Handle Qaddafi on its own?
    • Handle intervention against Al Qaeda and Daesh on its own?
    • Surge forces to the Baltics and Poland on its own?


    You as well as anyone should know that the on-paper strength is only the beginning of the story. European capabilities have atrophied and readiness levels are poor; in Germany, they are worse than during the scandalous 1970s. They've enjoyed the "peace dividend" and now Russia is on the move yet again. What'll it be? Thus far, it seems to be a combination of Munich and the Phoney War...
    Last edited by Azor; 05-15-2017 at 05:22 PM.

  9. #229
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    The Russian air campaign in Syria in April predominantly targeted civilians in Idlib, a supposed "deescalation zone"
    http://www.understandingwar.org/back...rian-civilians
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 06:19 PM.

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    Read the latest from @SyriaSource on #Raqqa and the oil economy of #ISIS:
    http://bit.ly/2rioW8E

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Firstly, the issue is the level of contribution to collective defense not international peacekeeping. European contributions to UN missions in Africa and aid have not made Europe more secure, given that millions of Africans still seek work and welfare in Europe. Indeed, the 2011 intervention in Libya had more of an impact on European security than Europe’s other efforts in Africa have. The only NATO members where humanitarian or foreign aid plus defense spending reaches the 2% of GDP target are Denmark and Norway, not France or Germany. As for Denmark and Norway, helping out in Africa won't make a difference if they clash with Russia in the Arctic. If that scenario occurs, it will be the U.S. and Royal Navies that get there first. Oslo is more interested in investing its oil profits in micro-finance and green energy than on defense or - heaven forbid - returning the taxpayers' money to the taxpayers.

    It could very well be argued that Europe can afford the luxury of humanitarian dabbling in Africa precisely because of U.S. conventional and nuclear protection. For instance, Canada emerged from World War II with a very large and capable military by default, and leveraged this new power into a peacekeeping role. Yet Canada hollowed out its military throughout the Cold War to the point that it was incapable of deploying even token forces on peacekeeping missions during much of the 1990s, and now its global “role” exists primarily in the minds of Canadians.

    Secondly, Merkel is undoubtedly the worst German postwar leader, whose policies have threatened the stability of Germany and the European integration process. Despite her apparent knowledge of Russia and Putin, she did nothing to prepare for a harsh Russian response to the Ukrainian Revolution of 2014, when the EU’s “soft power” was met with Russian hard power. Germany is the paymaster of the EU and so Merkel could not have been unaware of developments in Ukraine prior to late 2013; her government also took a keen interest in the fate of Timoshenko and other opponents of Yanukovych. Yet there was no grand strategy, which would have factored in energy sources as much as defense spending, and as usual it is the responsibility of the United States to ensure that Russia does not start gnawing on NATO’s borders. Unfortunately, despite being a permanent fixture in the Chancellory and an Albatross in German politics, Merkel is a mere caretaker whose reactive policies are more impulsive and naïve than her current counterpart in the White House.

    Thirdly, Afghanistan will remain an open sore permanently, because true Pashtun self-determination is an existential threat to Pakistan, because Pakistan’s antidote to Pashtun nationalism is Islamist Pashtunwali, and because Pashtunistan is a haven for narcotics and terrorism. Hopefully Trump will retreat to the northern areas of Afghanistan and use special forces and UCAVs to police the south.

    Lastly, if European NATO was so capable, why couldn't it:

    • Handle Qaddafi on its own?
    • Handle intervention against Al Qaeda and Daesh on its own?
    • Surge forces to the Baltics and Poland on its own?


    You as well as anyone should know that the on-paper strength is only the beginning of the story. European capabilities have atrophied and readiness levels are poor; in Germany, they are worse than during the scandalous 1970s. They've enjoyed the "peace dividend" and now Russia is on the move yet again. What'll it be? Thus far, it seems to be a combination of Munich and the Phoney War...
    Oh where to start.....??

    Handle Qaddafi on its own?
    Handle intervention against Al Qaeda and Daesh on its own?
    Surge forces to the Baltics and Poland on its own?
    1. Go back and actually check how long the US and Obama were engaged in the Qaddafi take down.....??

    How many days until they turned it over to NATO to include NATO command leadership EXACTLY TEN??

    2. Let's see..not exactly sure which NATO partners warned the US about going into Iraq which has triggered the now IS which morphed out of QJBR and the AQI....supported by Assad BUT a little bird said France and Germany....and several others with their predictions of what would happen actually now occurring.....

    3. Outside of a US HBCT and one Aviation Bde and one Airborne Bde virtually all other troops are NATO..logistics first initially US and then replaced by NATO logisitics units....even the Baltic Air Patrols are largely being flown by NATO....the 2nd CAV was always in Europe with only the last remaining Aviation Bde (10th CAB) which was to go home before Crimea....after coming back from AFG...

    WHAT is not being talked about is that normally all BCTs and HBCTS undergo yearly train up cycles ..about 22 per year with only really one National Training Area big enough to shot and move on the scale now seen in the Baltics and Poland....same for the US artillery units.....NEVER underestimate the value of deploying and shooting live ammo to these units....

    AND what is more important to DoD... all of this is being covered by added OCFs which does not come out of the yearly DoD defence budget which has been under sequestion..so basically it is a "free show of force" against Russian intentions....

    BTW...since the slow down of combat rotations to AFG and Iraq many units complain about the day to day grind of being "in garrison"...so "fun, travel and adventure" get's a workout....

    So in fact the US is retesting the Rapid Deployment concepts of the Cold War Reforger Exercises and giving the HBCTs a chance to stretch their legs and shoot or as the armor units say..."placing metal on metal" in their respective war time combat areas....

    And the US taxpayer is footing the bill and NATO picks up the manuever damage piece and is funding the Forward Deployed Storage Depots....which will allow for a rapid deployment and just falling in on their equipment....just as they did for Reforger...

    NATO is building out the infrastructure with no cost to the US BTW...

    AND we can thank Putin for bringing back the NATO upgrading of their armor and several countries rebuilding their armored forces ie tanks...example Germany....

    So I am not sure what the problem is??

    AND here is the kicker..ALL these NATO costs mentioned above do not count against their 2% requirements....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 06:59 PM.

  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Oh where to start.....??

    1. Go back and actually check how long the US and Obama were engaged in the Qaddafi take down.....??

    How many days until they turned it over to NATO to include NATO command leadership EXACTLY TEN??

    2. Let's see..not exactly sure which NATO partners warned the US about going into Iraq which has triggered the now IS which morphed out of QJBR and the AQI....supported by Assad BUT a little bird said France and Germany....and several others with their predictions of what would happen actually now occurring.....

    3. Outside of a US HBCT and one Aviation Bde and one Airborne Bde virtually all other troops are NATO..logistics first initially US and then replaced by NATO logisitics units....even the Baltic Air Patrols are largely being flown by NATO....the 2nd CAV was always in Europe with only the last remaining Aviation Bde (10th CAB) which was to go home before Crimea....after coming back from AFG...

    WHAT is not being talked about is that normally all BCTs and HBCTS undergo yearly train up cycles ..about 22 per year with only really one National Training Area big enough to shot and move on the scale now seen in the Baltics and Poland....same for the US artillery units.....NEVER underestimate the value of deploying and shooting live ammo to these units....

    AND what is more important to DoD... all of this is being covered by added OCFs which does not come out of the yearly DoD defence budget which has been under sequestion..so basically it is a "free show of force" against Russian intentions....

    BTW...since the slow down of combat rotations to AFG and Iraq many units complain about the day to day grind of being "in garrison"...so "fun, travel and adventure" get's a workout....

    So in fact the US is retesting the Rapid Deployment concepts of the Cold War Reforger Exercises and giving the HBCTs a chance to stretch their legs and shoot or as the armor units say..."placing metal on metal" in their respective war time combat areas....

    And the US taxpayer is footing the bill and NATO picks up the manuever damage piece and is funding the Forward Deployed Storage Depots....which will allow for a rapid deployment and just falling in on their equipment....just as they did for Reforger...

    NATO is building out the infrastructure with no cost to the US BTW...

    AND we can thank Putin for bringing back the NATO upgrading of their armor and several countries rebuilding their armored forces ie tanks...example Germany....

    So I am not sure what the problem is??
    As someone who fancies themselves to be a strategic thinker, you can start by looking at the big picture rather than snippets of anecdotal evidence that is supposed to confirm your rightness.

    RE:

    1. Irrelevant. The ORBAT, strikes on Libyan ground forces and the special forces embedded with the rebels all point to an operation driven by Doha, Paris and London. The U.S. provided crucial C4ISR, (S)DEAD, logistics, WMD security, and diplomatic clout at the UNSC, but otherwise was not the prime mover.

    2. Also irrelevant. NATO members who refused to join the “Coalition of the Willing” had no inkling as to how the War in Iraq would unfold. The subversion and guerrilla warfare did not arise until Bremer’s blunders. The U.S. was also warned that Afghanistan would be a repeat of the Vietnam experience, which was untrue.

    3. Baltic Air Policing is a token force. Should Americans be grateful that the Europeans can muster a few aircraft to patrol their own borders? Again, this slow reactivity does not exactly fill me with confidence about Europe’s political leadership. It is an improvement, however.

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    Azor..another one for you to comment on....

    Syria: YPG leader: "We don't deny our connection with PKK and Ocalan. I'm proud that I have a photo of Ocalan on my desk."

    NOTICE he says nothing about ethnicc cleansing of Arabs from Arab villages and towns does he....??
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    Raqqa: Several districts of #Raqqa were flooded after #US airstrikes destroyed a new dam north of #Raqqa City.

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    Raqqa: #US soldier carrying #YPG flag and badges near #Raqqa City.

    BTW..if this particular US soldier was seen carrying this flag on the streets of Germany he would be arrested and jailed up to 3 years just for carrying it....AND does this soldier actually understand he is supporting a US named terrorist organization and that it is Communist inspired and has been fighting against Turkey for over 40 years and Turkey supported in 9/11 the US by voting to trigger Article 5....????

    Probably not as most US soldiers are really weak on international politics and affiars....
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 07:11 PM.

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    DeirEzzor: #US airstrikes have killed 25+ #Syria|n civilians in #Abu_Kamal today.

    The US is getting up to Russian levels of terror with aerial bombing.

    #Raqqa: 379+ #Syria|n civilians were killed by #US airstrikes and #YPG artillery shelling in #Raqqa Province in the last 30 days.

    Raqqa: #YPG has shelled Mazra’et al Asadiya village north of #Raqqa with artillery and killed 18 civilians, including 8 children & 3 women.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 07:13 PM.

  17. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Raqqa: #US soldier carrying #YPG flag and badges near #Raqqa City.

    BTW..if this particular US soldier was seen carrying this flag on the streets of Germany he would be arrested and jailed up to 3 years just for carrying it....AND does this soldier actually understand he is supporting a US named terrorist organization and that it is Communist inspired and has been fighting against Turkey for over 40 years and Turkey supported in 9/11 the US by voting to trigger Article 5....????

    Probably not as most US soldiers are really weak on international politics and affairs....
    Is he a serving U.S. soldier or a volunteer from the U.S.?

  18. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    As someone who fancies themselves to be a strategic thinker, you can start by looking at the big picture rather than snippets of anecdotal evidence that is supposed to confirm your rightness.

    RE:

    1. Irrelevant. The ORBAT, strikes on Libyan ground forces and the special forces embedded with the rebels all point to an operation driven by Doha, Paris and London. The U.S. provided crucial C4ISR, (S)DEAD, logistics, WMD security, and diplomatic clout at the UNSC, but otherwise was not the prime mover.

    2. Also irrelevant. NATO members who refused to join the “Coalition of the Willing” had no inkling as to how the War in Iraq would unfold. The subversion and guerrilla warfare did not arise until Bremer’s blunders. The U.S. was also warned that Afghanistan would be a repeat of the Vietnam experience, which was untrue.

    3. Baltic Air Policing is a token force. Should Americans be grateful that the Europeans can muster a few aircraft to patrol their own borders? Again, this slow reactivity does not exactly fill me with confidence about Europe’s political leadership. It is an improvement, however.
    BTW...the last time I checked you were not part and parcel of the targeting team nor sat in on the classified briefings...nor sat in the NATO planning center ship off shore...

    THE first TEN days was under Obama control until Congress virtually demanded he hand off to NATO....which he did.....BTW then the majority of the flown missions were NATO and the US pulled back fighter assets...

    Noticed you did not read the SWJ article just posted concerning the failure of AFG..losing in AFG.......even Bill M commented on it...read it ..it is interesting to say the least....So maybe not a true VN loss BUT close enough.

    So the Trump leadership in global FP has inspired you??

    Right now after two major Ultra Right populist party failures actually counting Austria THREE failures and the fourth coming...I would say EU is holding up nicely when compared to Brexit and Trump....

    REMEBER the Trump tweet praising Le Pen...the French did and still do....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-15-2017 at 07:33 PM.

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    Kyle Orton
    ✔ @KyleWOrton #Assad's prisons have long been known to be de facto death camps, now they have crematoriums to burn the bodies.
    http://reut.rs/2pCQoky

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    BTW...the last time I checked you were not part and parcel of the targeting team nor sat in on the classified briefings...nor sat in the NATO planning center ship off shore...
    Yawn. Actually you didn't check. But at any rate your snippets aren't convincing me that Libya was a great feat for European arms. If anything, it showed the clear lack of independent capability, which would only be beneficial if the U.S. feared the rise of a threatening great power in West-Central Europe more than Russia.

    Your style of debate is perhaps more suited to Disqus or Twitter, where context and facts are less important, and ad hominem rules the day.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    THE first TEN days was under Obama control until Congress virtually demanded he hand off to NATO...which he did...BTW then the majority of the flown missions were NATO and the US pulled back fighter assets...
    Which makes perfect sense considering that the U.S. was required to perform DEAD prior to Anglo-French fighters stealing the show.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Noticed you did not read the SWJ article just posted concerning the failure of AFG...losing in AFG...even Bill M commented on it...read it...it is interesting to say the least....So maybe not a true VN loss BUT close enough.
    I don't have time to read everything. I'm still deciding whether to respond to the "Complex IPB" article by Vicrasta. My opinions on Afghanistan are well-known and haven't changed.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    So the Trump leadership in global FP has inspired you?
    No. But I don't inspire easily. I'm a cynic and the only idealists worth believing in tend to be powerless and soon to shake off their mortal coils.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Right now after two major Ultra Right populist party failures actually counting Austria THREE failures and the fourth coming...I would say EU is holding up nicely when compared to Brexit and Trump...

    REMEMBER the Trump tweet praising Le Pen...the French did and still do....
    You continue to conveniently ignore that the right-wing populist movements in Europe are disparate and began long before Putin's influence operations began in earnest. It is logical for Brussels to blame Moscow rather than its own overreach, but it is more concerning to see people with your experience and knowledge guzzling the Kool-Aid.

    If Macron recalls Trump's endorsement of Le Pen, Trump recalls the heavy endorsement of Clinton by his opposite numbers. Unless the French plan to keep their forces in Mali permanently and start a colony, or merely hold candles in response to Daesh attacks, Macron would do well to be professional.

    The EU model of vertical and horizontal integration is broken. It will face containment and rollback by key constituencies for some time, and will be less attractive to prospective entrants.

    Certainly, there was a brief moment somewhere between 2003-2010, when the "correlation of forces" (to use the vague but useful Soviet term), seemed in Europe's favor. By comparison, the recession, asset bubbles, racism, gun violence and foreign adventures of the U.S. did evoke a sense of American decline. Those Neo-Conservatives who had laughed at Western Europe in the early 2000s seemed very wrong. But the world came to learn that Europe was simply more opaque and less willing to confront the problems that it faced.

    For all intents and purposes the EU or Eurozone scare of the 2000s has gone the way of the Japan scare of the 1990s. Now the attention is on China, which will probably plateau in the coming decades as a middle income country. How will the CPC retain power without the 6% Mandate of Heaven? The world has been moving in the multipolar direction since the 1960s, but the U.S. has thus far seen off all rival "first among equals"...
    Last edited by Azor; 05-15-2017 at 08:55 PM.

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