Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Le Carr was not wrong in his opinion that Germans are such literalists. I will reply in-kind then, with no dark humor or attempt at objective detachment.



Yet Giap refused to repeat the admission of 500,000 NLF/NVA fatalities through 1968 when interviewed in 1990 by Karnow. An aide of Giaps later claimed that the Communists lost at least a million combatants, primarily to the U.S (Karnow, 1990). Authors of Inside the VC and the NVA suggest that Giap was inflating Communist casualties to impress the West with North Vietnams determination to win the war (Lanning and Craig, 2008).

Not exactly. How long could the South Vietnamese state have survived a combination of NVA conventional warfare lavishly supported by the Soviet Union and China on the one hand, and NLF subversion and guerrilla warfare on the other, even with U.S. materiel? Certainly U.S. airpower could have prevented a major conventional offensive by the NVA, but then Hanoi could have resorted to less conventional methods as well as expanding its IADS southward as part of a bite and hold strategy (e.g. Egypts Operation Badr in 1973). Regardless, South Vietnam was not a particularly strong state that its dependency on the U.S. was the crux of the problem. The U.S. defined victory as a strong and allied U.S. state in South Vietnam, albeit probably one that was far more liberal and democratic at the outset than was required either of South Korea or Taiwan.

Militarily, Johnsons restrictions on the use of airpower prior to and during his ground escalation was the death knell for the U.S. effort. By the time Nixon unleashed the B-52s, Hanoi was more than ready and had had years to prepare.

By the wars end, the U.S. had lost the hearts and minds of Americans and Westerners, despite the fact that the Communists were mass murderers and were also sectarian, targeting Catholics for some of the worst treatment. In a similar vein, note that the popular conception in the West of the Republican side of the Spanish Civil War is the idealism of the International Brigades, rather than the raping of nuns and crucifixion of priests, NKVD assassinations, and the dominant role of the Soviet Union. Properly educating people on these histories now would be akin to conducting a fair trial of the Ceausescus.

In many respects, the Vietnam War was a U.S. own goal. It did not commit to South Vietnam the way it had to Western Europe, Taiwan and South Korea, or even the way it had to former foes Germany, Italy and Japan. The U.S. tried to accomplish with a light footprint what only a heavy bootprint would do. The former level of effort was more than enough to set Indochina ablaze (paraphrasing Churchill), and force the Communists into meting out mass murder in frustration, thereby tarnishing their reputation in the manner of Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) and Afghanistan (1979).

While the U.S. was busy covering up problems in Vietnam, it was busy producing corny videos of its successes. Yet these rather silly propaganda clips of South Koreans, Germans, Taiwanese and Japanese being brothers-in-arms and just like us (going for dinner and dancing), demonstrate the U.S. commitment to strong and friendly states for these diverse peoples. Interestingly, much as South Vietnam was outside the tent, so too is Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen et al.

The U.S. presence in Europe and East Asia today is as much about alliance solidarity and deterring Sino-Russian aggression as it is about preventing the rise of hostile state and non-state threats in these regions.



But how does 400 Communist bodies counted transform into 4.4 million dead and missing?



Yet the B-52 was not the best tool for that sort of unconventional work. I read that on average each B-52 load dropped on the HCM trail killed three NLF/NVA personnel because of issues with accuracy, but I would have to get back to you with sourcing. The U.S. was so vexed by the Trail that it considered salting the area with fiberglass shards to irritate the skin of those who frequented it.

In any event, the danger of the Trail to any U.S. intervention in South Vietnam was foreseen by Kennedys Brain Trust. Compare the geography of South Korea to South Vietnam and one can instantly see the tyranny at work.



Well, how about we refer to Guenter Lewys work America in Vietnam (1978)? He reduced U.S. estimates of NLF/NVA deaths by 30% to account for U.S. soldiers killing civilians and then claiming that they were combatants. If Lewys figures are to be believed, the NLF/NVA only lost some 530,000 between 1955 and 1975.

Now, if I have any issue with R.J. Rummels research, it is that he includes outliers to arrive at his middle estimates, including minimizers such as Lewy as well as maximizers. Yet his inclusion of low and high estimates provides a range which one can use to determine if a specific estimate is reasonable or unreasonable. Given that the highest estimate for NLF/NVA deaths is 1.5 million, your suggestion of 4.4 million (KIA and MIA) is utterly ridiculous.

Any person familiar with studies on mass murder and casualties of war should be familiar with Rummels work, whether one accepts it on an unqualified basis or not. Rummels middle estimate of 1.1 million deaths is corroborated by both the Vietnamese government (1995) and the British Medical Journal (2008).

As I recall, the Americans fled from the rooftop of the embassy in Saigon and had to push helicopters off carrier decks into the sea in order to make room for fleeing citizens and South Vietnamese refugees. Therefore, there was no opportunity for Americans to fully count the bodies on the ground or get a proper measure of the ground reality, was there?

So know for someone who was not there you quote a awful lot of individuals who were also not there....

BTW...the Embassy personnel and Marine personnel were those on the last copter....my former unit commander I worked with here in Berlin was on the last flight.

BTW...you forgot that in the 1972 Easter offensive the US air together with SVN army and marine units did in fact inflict heavy loses on the NVA and drove them back into Cambodia and Laos....fact not fiction....

The numbers that Giap talked about were not inflated as he was not trying to impress anyone in the West with his statements...

Check the number of all the actual NVA units who fought in SVN and then take an accurate listing of their manning strength and you might be surprised on how accurately they matched.....and if you take the average of in 1970 line crossers who deserted NVA units of 25,000 then your provided figures start to look a tad unreal...

We captured the complete logistics listing for all member of the Ho's on personal honorific Regt....we listed them has having only 900...actual logistics listing with complete names and each individuals equipment 1200....

Up and until 1975 NVA was able to mobilize and send south any number of needed troops....as the entire country was mobilized for complete and total war....

So now go back to the books and start all over...

Secondly, in one specific local village we knew we have exactly 7 VC members by name...we captured two and went to the village and stated surrender or we will kill the remaining 5 in ambushes....FIVE came in....

So while it is great to hear people calculate...they never took in the ground reality....

So now get back to the thread at hand...

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-Assad forces lay siege on rebel-held east Qalamoun after ISIS withdrawal.
US/UK backed FSA were not allowed to link with east Qalamoun.

[Azor]

So know for someone who was not there you quote a awful lot of individuals who were also not there....

BTW...the Embassy personnel and Marine personnel were those on the last copter....my former unit commander I worked with here in Berlin was on the last flight.

BTW...you forgot that in the 1972 Easter offensive the US air together with SVN army and marine units did in fact inflict heavy loses on the NVA and drove them back into Cambodia and Laos....fact not fiction....

The numbers that Giap talked about were not inflated as he was not trying to impress anyone in the West with his statements...

Check the number of all the actual NVA units who fought in SVN and then take an accurate listing of their manning strength and you might be surprised on how accurately they matched.....and if you take the average of in 1970 line crossers who deserted NVA units of 25,000 then your provided figures start to look a tad unreal...

We captured the complete logistics listing for all member of the Ho's on personal honorific Regt....we listed them has having only 900...actual logistics listing with complete names and each individuals equipment 1200....

Up and until 1975 NVA was able to mobilize and send south any number of needed troops....as the entire country was mobilized for complete and total war....

So now go back to the books and start all over...

Secondly, in one specific local village we knew we have exactly 7 VC members by name...we captured two and went to the village and stated surrender or we will kill the remaining 5 in ambushes....FIVE came in....

So while it is great to hear people calculate...they never took in the ground reality....

So now get back to the thread at hand...

As usual you get too close to your subjects to see clearly. This is reflected in your desire to argue with the person who probably agrees with you most on Vietnam here at SWJ/SWC.


You can't admit that you simply don't know. Unfortunately, your estimate of 4.4 million dead NVA/NLF is simply fanciful, and exaggerations like that only harden the hearts and minds of those who believe the popular narrative of the war, which seem to include Cooper and Jones, to name two.


The VVAW members were in Vietnam, weren't they? So perhaps we should give them the final word. What say you to that?


I suppose all those scholars still going over World Wars I and II, the Civil War, the Napoleonic Wars and the Thirty Years Wars should simply give up. Perhaps we should take the word of an elderly Russian with several dozen watches over Glantz?

[Azor]

By Paul Iddon at WIB: https://warisboring.com/after-bailin...yria-quagmire/

It has been well over one year, seven months since Russia’s military intervened in Syria’s civil war. From the get-go the Kremlin brushed aside claims that its campaign#would lead to an Iraq or Afghanistan-like quagmire.

Relying heavily on air power, Russia helped the Syrian regime to rebound from a defensive posture, launch offensive operations and reclaim substantial territory. Russia also retains a sizable amount of troops and equipment in Syria, despite two highly publicized but phony withdrawals in March 2016 and January 2017, which were both normal#military rotations.

Russia has meanwhile only slowly added to its military presence in the country, according to experts. The Russian air force’s operational tempo has also decreased now that Bashar Al Assad’s regime appears stable. Propping up the regime was one of Russia’s primary goals in Syria—and accomplishments.

“They are really cautious to keep the bare minimum force presence and nothing more,” Michael Kofman, a leading Russia expert and Global Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute told War Is Boring.“I don’t see Russia taking steps that would lead to mission creep and eventual conflict ownership, but with that comes a lack of control over local actors, so its a double-edged sword.”

“The best indicator is force posture. If it’s increasing then it’s a bad sign.”

Neil Hauer, an expert on Russian-Syrian relations at SecDev, says there are several factors at play.

“Russia has scaled down its combat operations significantly over the last several months. It’s kept up bombing on rebel strongholds in Idlib, but even that has been reduced compared to the first 16 months of its intervention,” Hauer said. “So in a strictly kinetic sense, their operations have decreased.”

Nevertheless, Russia now has more military forces in Syria than ever before. These soldiers, airmen and contractors#number nearly 10,000, according to Hauer—including roughly 5,000 personnel at Hmeimim Air Base, 2,500 Wagner group mercenaries and 1,000 North Caucasian military police.

Russia has “also placed a lot of political capital behind these proposed ‘de-escalation zones,’ which will reportedly be partly secured by Russian or North Caucasian military police,” Hauer added.

This comes as the war in Syria approaches a new phase marked by the looming defeat of Islamic State. “The questions that follow—the fate of Idlib, Raqqa city, how the regime will interact with the Syrian Kurds and so forth—are much more volatile and likely to cause Russia diplomatic headaches as well as generating potential military conflict,” Hauer added.

On May 18, 2017, U.S. warplanes struck Iranian-backed paramilitaries who#were approaching U.S.-backed New Syrian Army militia fighters around Al Tanf near the Iraqi border, the same area where Russia dropped cluster bombs on the NSyA in June 2016. “Russia apparently tried to get the regime and Iran to turn back, but they didn’t listen,” Hauer said.

“Problems with its allies have already caused Russia to have to deploy additional ground forces to ensure its goals are achieved in key areas, with the Chechen military police coming as a response to Iranian interference with ceasefire and evacuation deals in Aleppo.”

Given these circumstances, it’s possible Russia could deploy more ground troops—most likely more military police from the North Caucasus, an option which Russian officials have suggested.

“While there isn’t a need for large-scale Russian military activities, I do think we’ll see more Russian ground personnel, in the form of Chechen special forces and Wagner mercenaries, increasingly deploying to Syria as Russia’s desire for greater influence on the ground grows.”

However, Timur Akhmetov, an analyst on Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, believes the Kremlin is trying to minimize its military involvement in Syria while pushing for a political solution to end the conflict. Russia prefers air strikes, advising and supplying military equipment—not a larger ground presence.

“Assad on the other hand claims he is ready to fight until the very last terrorist [is defeated], he has also claimed Syria will probably need more Russia troops on the ground,” Akhmetov said. “Russia is trying to channel the conflict into the political canvas—freezing active clashes in western Syria. For this, Russia is trying to attract Turkey, because it is one of major players that influence the opposition.”

[OUTLAW 09]

As usual you get too close to your subjects to see clearly. This is reflected in your desire to argue with the person who probably agrees with you most on Vietnam here at SWJ/SWC.


You can't admit that you simply don't know. Unfortunately, your estimate of 4.4 million dead NVA/NLF is simply fanciful, and exaggerations like that only harden the hearts and minds of those who believe the popular narrative of the war, which seem to include Cooper and Jones, to name two.


The VVAW members were in Vietnam, weren't they? So perhaps we should give them the final word. What say you to that?


I suppose all those scholars still going over World Wars I and II, the Civil War, the Napoleonic Wars and the Thirty Years Wars should simply give up. Perhaps we should take the word of an elderly Russian with several dozen watches over Glantz?

THEN argue with Giap if you can....it is his figures not mine....but my experience is ground reality which you never saw....

By say about 1975 every third family in NVA had lost one or more members of that family fighting in the South...you do the math....

[OUTLAW 09]

The New York Times‏
In the fight against ISIS, U.S. airstrikes have killed hundreds and possibly thousands of civilians
http://nyti.ms/2qj1afU

And the fighting for Raqqa has not even started.....and Mosul is far from over...

[OUTLAW 09]

Despite massive Assad / Iranian-led gains in the area, @CJTFOIR keeps bombing ISIS near Palmyra.

DeirEzzor: #US warplanes committed a massacre in #Mayadin City and killed 80 civilians, including 35 children(!).

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: #FSA counter-attack E. of #Suweida started (Desert Volcano Battle). Several armours reportedly destroyed. Heavy clashes ongoing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Exclusive: US knows its allies have killed civilians in Iraq and Syria but they won't admit it.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/26/...aq-and-syria/#

War monitor: US airstrikes in Syrian town have killed 100 including 40 children
http://read.bi/2qr7Bsz

Syria 106 dead including 42 children after #US airstrikes on Al-Mayadin town in eastern #DeirEzzor province

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: visual confirmation pro-Regime forces took Sawanah phosphate mine SW. of #Palmyra.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34...022770&z=16&m#

[Azor]

The New York Times‏
In the fight against ISIS, U.S. airstrikes have killed hundreds and possibly thousands of civilians
http://nyti.ms/2qj1afU

And the fighting for Raqqa has not even started.....and Mosul is far from over...

Don't we all follow Airwars? Do we really need the Gray Lady as middleman here? I appreciate Airwars working to keep the U.S. and its partners "honest", but as usual there is no context:

• Airstrikes and CAS in built-up areas always incur more casualties
• Daesh has a long history of using civilians as human shields
• The Iraqi Army is engaged in urban combat in large populated cities (esp. Mosul)
• What is the ratio of civilian-to-combatant deaths?
• What are the trends?
• How does the Coalition compare to say the SyAAF, RuAF or Saudi-led Coalition in Yemen?
• In 1944, Allied tactical airpower killed some 30,000 French civilians as part of the invasion of Europe, in addition to 30,000 killed by strategic bombing

Unfortunately, this myopic sort of reporting lends itself to popular misconceptions such as those that continue to haunt us from the Vietnam War e.g. how many recall Hue vs. My Lai?

If Airwars is to be believed, it is the Coalition, rather than the RuAF (SyAAF is ignored) that is murdering civilians and children...

[Azor]

THEN argue with Giap if you can...it is his figures not mine...but my experience is ground reality which you never saw...

By say about 1975 every third family in NVA had lost one or more members of that family fighting in the South...you do the math....

For someone who rightly depends upon anonymity in today's intrusive and interconnected age, you sure try to get personal. You should know by now that I don't bite.

Do you have a source for Giap's 4.4 million figure? Which book of his?

I didn't know that the NVA enrolled whole families, but it does make the whole debate over women serving in combat units today rather silly, doesn't it?

[OUTLAW 09]

Video shows Russian helicopters firing missiles at Syrian rebels near al-Tanf - place of US airstrikes last week
https://lenta.ru/news/2017/05/26/mi35/#

[OUTLAW 09]

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
We are deeply worried over mass deaths of civilians in #Iraq in ongoing bombing and shelling by the US-led coalition
http://tass.com/politics/947959

ALL I can say is...REALLY........Russia has not killed less civilians...really??

[Azor]

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
We are deeply worried over mass deaths of civilians in #Iraq in ongoing bombing and shelling by the US-led coalition
http://tass.com/politics/947959

ALL I can say is...REALLY........Russia has not killed less civilians...really??

Refer back to that Airwars/NYT post you made. This is what happens when one side is transparent and the other is opaque.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW..the US was not at all in forthcoming on this..several NGOs have been literally demanding that the US investigate...you would have noticed that YES the USAF admitted to killing 100 civilians in Mosul in one attack BUT then placed the blame on IS hidden IEDs which detonated when the bomb hit...BUT WAIT...they would not have been killed if the bomb had not dropped...right???

REMEMBER the Syrian mosque attack that CENTCOM claimed was a drone strike on top AQ leaders which turned out to be civilians...story was pushed hard by @bellingcat and then suddenly CENTCOM agreed....

So do not come with the US is more open than the Russians..they are both hiding and hiding and hiding...

A wise man who just died and I really liked a lot of his IR analysis and books.....as he was of the "old guard European thinker model"......

RIP ...... The U.S. has lost one of its great strategic thinkers -- yet we never discuss anything from him here at SWJ.....as it would challenge way to many....

Heavy and rude trolling tonight, all about a man who died. It's not even a full moon...and they have been largely never outside the US and do not have a passport and they are proTrump troll accounts on top of it...

Pavlo Klimkin
✔
@PavloKlimkin
A legend has gone. Condolences to family of Zbigniew #Brzezinski - great global thinker, who inspired Eastern Europe to get rid of communism.

[OUTLAW 09]

MUST READ: Interview with wise man @zbig Brzezinski. On #Putin: "particularly dangerous that he is a gambler."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-1041795.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: Regime deployed several 130 mm SPGs with desert camo for its offensive vs #FSA on E. #Suweida front.

[OUTLAW 09]

RT yday: "Peace-loving citizens will barely like" NATO accession to anti-#ISIS coalition.
You see their twist!
While calling EU countries ....reaction to islamist terrorism weak and calling for more cooperation w/Russia, Kremlin media opposes more western anti-terror activities.

NOTICE the Russian referral to the Trump comment that NATO is obsolete....

[OUTLAW 09]

DeirEzzor: #YPG/#SDF fighters have beaten & raped a woman in #DeirEzzor Province on 25 May, threatened to kill her.
http://en.deirezzor24.net/a-group-of...nd-raped-her/#


BUT WAIT...she was Sunni Arab and the YPG fighters were Kurdish....and the US supports them thus just as complicit as the rapists are....