...and here the source of that copy, and the story: Administrative Decisions on Local Defence Forces Personnel: Translation & Analysis.
Mind: the author of that article, has a giant problem understanding what he's got. And, sadly, that's meanwhile no exception in his work, but a rule.
Namely, the author - Aymen Jawad at-Tamimi, somebody who became quite 'famous' for works of this kind - is not only failing to understand and explain the paper he's got, he's also not aware of its importance.
1.) Tamimi can't put together a story and simply explain facts: when reading his work, I've all the time got a feeling he's circling around the actual topic like a cat around a mug of hot milk. The only exception from this rule was hit 'critique' of Guttman's recent article of the PKK.
2.) He also seems not to understand the simple brutality of the Assad regime. Or is he intentionally downplaying the importance of networks of patronage and crime...?
In this case he starts 'wondering loud':
Actually, the principle is simple: the regime pays next to nothing to the SAA; SAA has no other choice but to defect and is thus criminalized; there come the 'saviours' of some militia, offer amnesty; and the ex-SAA should not only be 'happy', but indeed is 'in debt' with 'merciful regime' that gave his life a new sense......As a result, there has been widespread evasion of compulsory and reserve service, along with desertion from the army ranks. Fear of arrest for these offences would also prevent many people from venturing too far beyond their hometown or area, on account of the risk of encountering a security checkpoint that might have their names on a wanted list.
Instead, militias may be seen as offering a better alternative, as the salaries are often higher than those of army conscripts.
...
And now, with this document, the IRGC is offered a carte blanche in regards of related work. :roll:
3.) Tamimi has also got an immense problem with drawing simple conclusions about the NDF and the LDF. Surely enough, the Russians are trying to change the situation lately, but essentially, both of these are nothing else but an attempt to formalize all the sorts of militias and PMCs, with the LDF usually standing for different 'units' of Hezbollah/Syria.
4.) And, he's paying too much attention at the purported 'symbology': sure, it's nice to have some unit crest explained, but what some insignia stands for or should depict is one thing, while the actual nature and purpose of the unit in question is another. The fact the regime lets militias recruit and pay better means not the resulting unit is 'SAA', just for example.
Therefore, it is not - or it should not be - the least surprising the LDF 'exists beyond Aleppo' (like it is for Tamimi): in essence, the LDF might be wherever the regime decides to call one of IRGC's local surrogates that way - or whatever local gangs prefer to call themselves.
What a 'surprise' then: what the regime considers 'LDF of Mhrada' for example, is calling itself 'Mhrada NDF'.
Overall, the piece is informative in regards of existence of few of armed groups in question. But, Tamimi's narrative and failures to understand the nature of the regime, and the purpose of the NDF/LDF legend, is severely smudging the picture.
BTW, and to make sure, the IRGC is not the only one to get such permissions. The Russians are meanwhile neck-deep into repeating IRGC's example:
Russians 'proposing the creation of a local militia' in Suweida is silly: the area already has some 5-6 own militias - all Druze. Actually, this is indicating the Russians are trying to recruit some of these to fight for them, i.e. for Assad.A #Russia|n delegation was allegedly in #Suweida today & proposed the creation of a local militia. Pic via Suweida24. #Syria
-> Members would get $200 a month, some health care, and have their status regularized :!: (for those who missed service)...
Last edited by CrowBat; 05-04-2017 at 08:07 AM.
CrowBat....my compliments on a rather good translation....did not notice it was page 3 but the significance is still massive and YOU wonder if CENTCOM/Trump and the SOF community "will get it".
BUT I seriously doubt it....
IMHO this clearly indicates that Syria is now fully under Iranian IRGC control and no longer a "so called sphere of influence zone" that Obama/Rhodes were pushing for in the end........
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2017 at 08:10 AM.
Hama Battle: #Iran announced death of #IRGC Brigadier General Mahab Ali Farsi, veteran of Iran-Iraq war. Killed by Rebels 2 days ago.
Here's the Kremlin transcript of Putin's press conference with Erdogan yesterday, in English.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54444#
Russia stated that they together with Iran and Turkey will setup four "safe zones" and be the guarantors of the agreement for the four zones..to be presented at the ongoing Astana talks....
What's new is that there's a 3-page memorandum circulating in Astana with a May 22 deadline for establishing the zones' exact borders.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2017 at 08:14 AM.
IF this is anywhere close to being accurate/confirmed the US (Trump), CENTCOM and US SOF are now involved in one hell of a total mess.....
PYD (PKK) signed an agreement to cooperate with the Regime and Russia for upcoming offensives in Aleppo and Idlib.
http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/...e-east/347692#
So Trump, CENTCOM and US SOF are in fact supporting Assad in genocide, ethnic cleansing, fighting together with sectarian Iraqi Shia militias and the Iranian IRGC along with support of a Communist terrorist group PKK....
Can it get any worse???
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2017 at 08:07 AM.
Azor...back on my soap box for this morning in a very rainy Berlin.....while we have sparred a lot over the Russian Trump connections and the Steel Dossier...we are slowly seeing the FBI close in on indictments...Originally Posted by Azor
If you noticed yesterday Comey did admit to three ongoing investigations....
A social media poster had pointed to three grand juries in progress with two being close to and or finished with indictments/warrants coming out of them...
Many bashed him and his sources for being incorrect, BUT Comey did in fact confirm yesterday what he had posted...
THEN he posts this....
I now have 2 sources within legal community confirming that a D.C. area judge has signed 2 warrants related to Comey's Trump investigation.
(Warrants could be to force someone to testify in a grand jury and or actual arrest warrants...although normally a person would not refuse to testify unless there is something to hide and a GJ can provide immunity to get you to testify).
So exactly if you are the Trump WH on the verge of being charged with obstruction and or worse just how do you conduct FP...ANY FP?
"Wag the Dog" takes over as the easiest way to deflect from his "troubles" does it not........???
Even yesterday the Chinese were warning the US to stop their bomber overflights hardening their line actually and coming to the open support of NK which many said they would in the end...."as a cause for potentially triggering a war".
In Syria if you have read the CrowBat postings and mine from today... Trump/CENTCOM/US SOF are now in one hell of a mess....
With Trump/CENTCOM/US SOF now supporting openly terrorists of multiple stripes and all Shia based...and supporting FIVE US named terrorist groups when they are suppose to be fighting two terrorist groups?
SEVEN terrorist groups and the US is in the middle of all SEVEN?
What in the hell did Trump get the US into in his "rush to eradicate IS from the face of the earth" and ALL just in under 110 days?
Even Obama did not stumble this badly....
THIS goes to the heart of all the Trump lies.....remember he bashes constantly the "failing and fake news NYTs" on just about anything....
The failing @nytimes added 308k new digital/print subscribers in the first quarter of '17, according to our latest Fake News press release
308,000 new subscriptions in one quarter and MSM is :failing and fake"?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2017 at 08:43 AM.
Thanks, but that translation is not mine: it's Taimimi's (see the link to his article I've posted above).
The importance of his 'find' is as follows:
1.) It's a definite confirmation that the Assadists are running the policy of letting the IRGC do whatever it wants to do in parts of Syria that are nominally 'regime controlled'. I.e. the parts of Syria in question - even those directly controlled by nominal 'regime forces' - are actually not under control of the same. The regime actually has no say at its own home turf: even at the time it's so short on troops like never before, it must let the IRGC recruit and establish militias as it likes.
And that's 'official'.
2.) The official nomenclature of 'National Defence Forces' and 'Local Defence Forces' is a farce; a big PR-show, and nothing else.
3.) Assad-Regime knows very well what the IRGC is doing, but has no other choice but to make it its official policy to let the IRGC do whatever it wants to do in Syria.
For Trump, Pentagon etc. there should be no clearer message than this: if they are so eager to confront Iranians, and as eager to do so in Yemen... then why to hell do they miss all the Iranians are doing in Syria?
Like you, though, I strongly doubt Washington will be doing anything about this. Namely: development of this kind is playing directly into the hands of Israel (free along the motto 'the IRGC in Syria is mortal danger' etc.).
Oppo's delegation in Astana are fragmented and unqualified. They belong in the field, not negotiating table.
Where is Hijab
In Astana: Russia, Iran and Turkey signed memorandum on 4 "safety zones" in Syria
Guess all other areas will be "free fire zones a la VN 1968"...
Outlaw,
What is there to reconsider?
The Army would doubtless agree that aside from Operation Desert Storm, subversion and guerrilla warfare would have been far preferable to conventional mobile and siege warfare.
As for Vietnam, the Communists paid an absolutely terrible price for harassing U.S. forces. Even including ARVN fatalities, the NLF and NVA experience was akin to the Red Army's experience on the Eastern Front.
The Korean War was a hideous conflict and the risk of a U.S. military defeat was far higher. Indeed, Eisenhower basically had to threaten to use the bomb in order to secure an armistice. Yet this is regarded as a decisive victory...
The issue is one of perception, not objective reality.
There is a very old battlefield saying...the last one standing on that field is the "winner".....
Ask the NVA and the North Koreans....they were the last one's standing.
Kuwait does not count as the Saddam army was not prepared to withstand a full scale US Army rolling thunder full TWO Corps armored attack fully patterned on a possible NATO/Soviet war.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2017 at 04:17 PM.
To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria
Not going there.
To date…
- Russia has less of a free hand in Syria and less prestige in the Middle East than it did under the previous administration
- There is no evidence that Operation Timber Sycamore has been wound down
- There have been no efforts to rein in Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield or its attacks on the YPG
- There appears to be no micro-management of the military by the administration
- Washington appears to have warmer relations with Ankara and Riyadh
- Clashes between the FSA and YPG have been reduced
None of these developments indicate an attempt to placate Russia, dismantle NATO or other alliances, or to retreat from MENA.
Really...you really think this??
Hanoi had a strategic and Pyrrhic victory over along with a tactical defeat to the U.S.
Beijing and Pyongyang suffered strategic defeats.
Operation Desert Storm does count amigo, because no one knew exactly how effective the Second Offset/AirLand Battle would be, and various members of Bush's NSC were suggesting that tactical nuclear weapons be considered for use.
But you still do not get it...they walked away as "winners".....as they were in fact willing to take the massive loses as they knew the West could not absorb the same loses..it was a game of staying power and they "stayed..we left"....
As one involved on Desert Storm tact nukes were never discussed nor even in the AOR....nor were the handlers of tact nukes ever placed on alert and move status...
Secondly, what is far more interesting is did Bush actually sucker the US and Saddam into the war.....US intel assets inside the Indications and Warnings divisions repeatedly warned Bush of Saddam's invasion moves...and you know things are serious with you pick up tank commanders talking 600 meters from the Kuwait border and you warn the President physically of an impending invasion AND YET that President does nothing but wait for the crossing to happen....
Saddam/we got suckered...simple as that...
BTW...hate to disappoint you but everyone knew Air/Land Battle would work...go back and reread the Soviet MoD comments on it...Kuwait just allowed them to array two full Corps on the ground...which one could never exercise in Germany...as an arrayed Corp takes up a lot of space....the German defense and attack model did not foresee an arrayed Corp but several attack fronts once the Soviets came to a stand still...
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2017 at 06:21 PM.
Are you referring solely to the NLF/NVA? Yes they did.
The U.S. campaign in Vietnam was doomed because of:
- Poor intelligence and therefore understanding of the conflict i.e. not Korea redux
- An overly ambitious objective i.e. a strong and friendly state in South Vietnam
- A restricted commitment in order to placate Beijing and Moscow on the one hand, and the American electorate on the other
Imagine if the U.S. had simply denied the Communists control of Vietnam, relying upon anti-Communist insurgents, small special forces/intelligence teams, and airpower…
Yet returning to the issue of comparing conventional warfare with guerrilla warfare and subversion, every strictly conventional war that the U.S. has fought with major ground forces has been far more costly to those soldiers than the counter-insurgencies in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq (*).
On the contrary, according to Khalizad and Bush himself, Cheney among others, advocating using tactical nuclear weapons. Bush, of course, was strongly opposed, but the mere suggestion indicates the anxiety over Iraq’s conventional capabilities. Indeed, the U.S. forces committed at the beginning of 1991 indicate a major overreaction to the possibility of war.
The threat that the U.S. faced from Iraq in 1991 was the Soviet one, in miniature, and although a U.S. victory was assured, there was anxiety over how costly that victory would be. Would quality overcome quantity, and to what degree? If liberating Kuwait was hard-fought then the ramifications would be felt by NATO forces in Germany opposite the crumbling Warsaw Pact and the still formidable Soviet Union, as well as the U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific facing North Korea and China.
If you are intending to claim that “everyone” knew that AirLand Battle would work as advertised, then why did Hussein not back down?
Moreover, why did the Soviets express surprise at the effectiveness of U.S. doctrine and technology in action as the following sources indicate?
- Glantz: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rs-storm.htm
- DIA: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1...military-force
- CIA: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingr...0000266048.pdf
In 1990, 39% of the total U.S. combat aircraft inventory was deployed to Desert Storm, whereas 30% was deployed to Iraqi Freedom, and elements of the latter were already in theater supporting the ongoing NFZ/NDZ in Iraq and Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.
So because it’s rainy in Berlin, you’re using tinfoil to stay dry while on your soap box? :P
Hussein had more than five months to withdraw from Kuwait and refused to do so despite the Desert Shield build up in Saudi Arabia and the UNSCR authorizing force to expel Iraqi forces. If those gathering Desert Storm clouds – pun intended – did not convince Hussein, how could Bush have done so in 1990?
* Referring to the Civil War, World War I, World War II and the Korean War
I find it interesting that you have never participated in either VN nor Desert Storm nor sat in the actual planning phases of DS or even during the Cold War in Germany yet you quote like wild....
If you really did do your research on SVN you might have noticed that actually the SVN Army was holding up well and with heavy B52 strikes effectively stopped the NVA Easter invasion in it's tracks and pushed them back into Laos and Cambodia...
The NVA licked it wounds and waited...WHAT exactly was the next US government move...they simply cut off SVN from any further military aid...and then the NVA moved again.
If you the reread a lot of the 1975 battlefield reports coming from SVN army/marine units...they basically ran out of ammo and there was nothing there to supply them with and then broke and ran....
Back to tact nukes..US politicians can talk all they want to but at no time were the handlers of those weapons "alerted to move" a key sign they were going to be used.....so again understand what you are talking about.
BTW you avoided my comments on the I&W warning Bush but Bush not reacting...why was that...if you knew the history behind I&W and their mission and where they sit in the IC and the role they play in national level command authority decisions you should have jumped on my comments but you did not.....
Long time I&W types who are very in tune to intel openly questioned what Bush was up in totally ignoring their warnings even SIX hours before the actual invasion and they called it to the exact invasion minute....Bush could have forewarned Kuwaiti forces but did not..but no action from a sitting US President...they indicate that had he gone on national TV and laid out all the intel evidence down to SIGINT as the buildup was occurring Saddam would not have invaded...but he did nothing....
Their reasoning is still today this and it has not changed with time...he wanted the war with Saddam...
But somehow we do not talk about that do we Azor?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-05-2017 at 06:38 AM.
Azor...BTW you are badly off topic so drop this line and get back to answering what CrowBat and I have posted....which is far more interesting that reliving the past...
What is ongoing now in Syria will directly impact and badly impact the US in the coming decade and Trump is leading the US down that path in a worse way than did Obama...
So prove me wrong...
Tin foil hat off now...
Why do I say that....the Russian Trump connections will draw Trump far more into trying to survive it and will thus cause US FP to drift in a way never seen before...much like the Nixon WH days after the Watergate break in....
And as we have seen with the TLAM/MOAB strikes that impressed no one he shots to distract not to underline a strategic strategy...
Azor...this is why you must pay more attention to what CrowBat and I both post here.....
Although in Iraq..this is a serious indicator of IS eventually going back to gerrilla warfare from which they evolved in the first place.....
I saw the first versions of this in a major battle in Diyala 2005...and it has further evolved....
They will never be "militarily defeated"...
The first launcher is a standardised anti-tank weapon cobbled together by IS in Mosul. The second appears to fire a more powerful rocket.
BREAKING
Infighting between Turkish backed Lisa Sultan Murad and Ahrar al-Sham in western and southern entrance of Jarablus. (ANHA)
Abu Ibrahim, president of al-Bab's Military Council, has been hospitalized after an assassination attempt by unknown assailants few today.
Azor...heads up ..now tell me what the Trump FP response will be on this....and then check the actual locations of the four safe zones....you will notice somethin...but will allow you to "see" the connection to this statement...
Russia: Syria safe zones to be shut for U.S., coalition planes - agencies
http://reut.rs/2qGMQdR
Russia says U.S. coalition forbidden from operating in planned Syria safe zones
http://tass.ru/politika/4233897?utm_..._social_share#
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-05-2017 at 07:51 AM.
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks