Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[OUTLAW 09]

By Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-...n-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:

Here is the inherent failure of such articles...they all truly fail to learn from previous Russian "ceasefires both in eastern Ukraine and Syria"..."ceasefires Russia style" are basically designed to hold the opponents in place and if they do fight then blame them for ceasefire violations ALL the while preparing for future major ground offensives...which is in now in fact what is ongoing.....

In the announced memorandum there is not a single control/punishment regime Assad and or the Russians and or Iran/Shia militias in fact violate both the ceasefires and safe zones ie via shelling's and or artillery.

AND it does not stop Assad from continuing to attacks areas not in the safe zone....

BTW find it interesting they mention Merkel....as she "envisioned" safe zones to be totally free from attacks, shelling's and even Russia air strikes...a semi form of NFZ was what she was pushing.....AND she also stated that a safe zone had to have a control mechanism in place which this Russian/Iranian/Turkish agreement certainly does not have.

AND if one really reads the small and very fine print (almost invisible) the US cannot fly/crawl/drive over/under/through these zones WITHOUT Russian MoD approval....

WOW...confirms that the ruse of a safe zones was nothing but a precursor to new Russian and Iranian offensive operations..

Clashes erupt in northwest Syria hours after de-escalation zones established by Russia, Iran, Turkey
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...medium=Social#

AND the Trump WH and even Trump himself is even more silent than Obama was...

[CrowBat]

Citing Azor's post in part and Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-...n-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:

Moscow wants to win the Syrian war and use this victory as a basis of a future dominant role in the Middle East. But this is impossible to achieve only through bombing: Moscow must split and undermine internal Syrian and international resistance to its actions. If Trump, Erdoğan and Merkel want “safe zones” in Syria for a public relations win and to curtail the flow of refugees, they may have them, the Kremlin apparently believes. Selected Syrian opposition warlords may, in turn, receive designated fiefdoms—“de-escalation zones.” Such a strategy worked in Chechnya; it could work in Syria. Or at least that is seemingly the plan.

Well, this might be Russian intentions - but if this is the case, then Moscow is only showing that it has got no clue whom is it facing in Syria. Namely, Syria is no Chechnya, and that not in any regards.

It doesn't take more than monitoring the gradual dissolution of the Southern Front FSyA to conclude: no serious 'warlord' within insurgency can afford a public admission he's not going to fight Assadists, the IRGC and the Russians any more.


BTW, Azor (and all others thinking the same way), here a nice summary on why all your thinking about 'Russia could do this or that' to counter whatever kind of Western military ops in Syria - is such a way off:
Russia’s Involvement In Syria Proves That It's Far Behind The Western World

...Russia has a long way to go before its full military can be labeled as fully modern. Some elements are very modern, some parts of some weapons are modern and most of the military is nowhere close to being able to conduct a sustained modern war with a near-peer. Russia may say it’s impressed with its military performance in Syria and they should be considering how badly they performed during their last combat operations against the military juggernaut of Georgia in 2008. But that doesn’t mean anybody else has to be impressed with its janky old killing apparatus.

As can be seen, Outlaw and me are not the only ones to draw similar conclusions (it's only so that I 'dared' making such statements public already back in October-November 2015).

[CrowBat]

AND it does not stop Assad from continuing to attacks areas not in the safe zone....

On the contrary, it defines what areas are Russians and the IRGC going to attack in the future.

The only thing that makes me wonder is Turkish agreement to such conditions: Ankara must feel completely isolated from all of its glorious allies in the NATO.

But then, what should Erdo do at the times 'even' Washington is doing its best to threaten the very existence of Turkey as a national state - through supporting the PKK: request help according to Article 5 of the NATO Charta...?

[OUTLAW 09]

On the contrary, it defines what areas are Russians and the IRGC going to attack in the future.

The only thing that makes me wonder is Turkish agreement to such conditions: Ankara must feel completely isolated from all of its glorious allies in the NATO.

But then, what should Erdo do at the times 'even' Washington is doing its best to threaten the very existence of Turkey as a national state - through supporting the PKK: request help according to Article 5 of the NATO Charta...?

CrowBat you are reading my thoughts lately...Turkey does right now feel totally alone within NATO...granted Erdogan has contributed to that problem with his own coup and counter coup and his destruction of his officer corps and AF...but on the whole the actions of the US a fellow NATO partner smacks of treason and selling out of a key NATO southern flank NATO partner....

Why "smacks"...it is treason when one nation state openly and completely supports...trains and fights with at least FIVE major US named terrorist groups ALL just as dedicated against Turkey as well as FSA...

Actually it would be interesting if in fact Turkey called for a major NATO meeting and asked for Article 5 to be triggered as it feels threatened and under attack by PKK supported by Russia, Iran and the US.....

WHAT is extremely interesting is that this whole Russian Trump thingy has US MSM so wrapped up right now that they are not seeing what is ongoing inside Syria or for that matter eastern Ukraine and that the US government is actually supporting FIVE named terrorist groups...AND it is suppose to be fighting only two AQ/IS....

[OUTLAW 09]

As expected: #Qaboun this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEhra9ZIEug#

The #Kremlin regime's de-escalation zones in #Syria perfectly work ... only for #AssadPutin of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKV2MW-VU3s#

Syria Regime howitzer & rockets Hit #Daraa City & suburbs

Crowdsourced Geolocation and Analysis of Coalition Airstrike Videos from Syria and Iraq via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...ition-videos/#

[OUTLAW 09]

UNDER the rubric of WOW.........

Russian MoD: What distinguishes Russian special forces officers from US comrades? Intellect and resoluteness.
http://tass.com/politics/944893

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Assad regime attacking #Lataminah since the morning. Northern #Hama is part of #Assad's escalation zones.

Northern Hama under heavy Assad artillery fire.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Hatay governor denying that Turkish Army will enter #Idlib

Maghwar al-Thawra established a checkpoint at Tanf / Al-Walid border crossing.Civilians are now able to pass the border

[Azor]

Azor (and all others thinking the same way), here a nice summary on why all your thinking about 'Russia could do this or that' to counter whatever kind of Western military ops in Syria - is such a way off

That's rich, considering I have posted reports from The Jamestown Foundation and others, including by Roger McDermott, which have driven home the point about Russia's weaknesses. I have also referred to Russian operations in Syria as a very "poor man's Desert Storm", if that. I've been waiting for FoxtrotAlpha to confirm these assertions with baited breath...

So if you're going to snipe, do me the courtesy of actually reading what I write, rather than what you want me to have written. I get it that traveling the land of online Brohemia with Outlaw is an amazing journey, but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know? Putin has done what Catherine, Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev couldn't. Or are all contradictions smoothed out in Brohemia?

Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays. Last I checked the honor of the Turkish flag and the feasibility of blockade running hung in the balance...

[OUTLAW 09]

That's rich, considering I have posted reports from The Jamestown Foundation and others, including by Roger McDermott, which have driven home the point about Russia's weaknesses. I have also referred to Russian operations in Syria as a very "poor man's Desert Storm", if that. I've been waiting for FoxtrotAlpha to confirm these assertions with baited breath...

So if you're going to snipe, do me the courtesy of actually reading what I write, rather than what you want me to have written. I get it that traveling the land of online Brohemia with Outlaw is an amazing journey, but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know? Putin has done what Catherine, Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev couldn't. Or are all contradictions smoothed out in Brohemia?

Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays. Last I checked the honor of the Turkish flag and the feasibility of blockade running hung in the balance...

Let's see...if I currently check Russian non linear efforts....and even if they are basically hanging on in Syria....THEY are in fact holding Syria together, together with Iran...they hold now permanent bases long term in Syria/Med and are positioned solidly on the NATO southern flank the last time I checked..they have built A2AD bubbles in the ME and sit next to Israel and they are allowing advanced weapons to flow via Iran to Hezbollah....they hold eastern Ukraine and will not leave there...they massively interfered in the US election and yesterday in France and are starting to in Germany.

AND the Trump WH and Trump response is exactly what again?

So when you get ready to actually "accept" ground reality and that is exactly what CrowBat and I attempt to show you...you are off base with your comments...

Every notice lately that the chatter coming from the US Trump WH and Trump and his TLAMs "somehow" does not match ground reality???

[OUTLAW 09]

That's rich, considering I have posted reports from The Jamestown Foundation and others, including by Roger McDermott, which have driven home the point about Russia's weaknesses. I have also referred to Russian operations in Syria as a very "poor man's Desert Storm", if that. I've been waiting for FoxtrotAlpha to confirm these assertions with baited breath...

So if you're going to snipe, do me the courtesy of actually reading what I write, rather than what you want me to have written. I get it that traveling the land of online Brohemia with Outlaw is an amazing journey, but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know? Putin has done what Catherine, Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev couldn't. Or are all contradictions smoothed out in Brohemia?

Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays. Last I checked the honor of the Turkish flag and the feasibility of blockade running hung in the balance...

Sniping..strange comment for someone who basically repackages our comments and then cut and pastes their comments.....that is really easy to do.

Seriously take the recent PKK posting say from Orton ..take CrowBat's...comments on the PKK and then take Trump/CENTCOM/SOF comments on PKK and THEN tell me we do not have a serious FP breakdown in the Trump rush to "eradicate IS from the face of the earth"....

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat...anything on this development since last night?

BREAKING: Opposition source tells Rudaw reporter that Turkish army will be deployed tonight to Syria's Idlib to enforce de-escalation zones

Lots of chatter that #Turkey is considering interfering in #Idlib in order to separate opposition forces from #HTS - as per #Astana plan.

Concurrently, rumor is rife in #Idlib that #HTS may be preparing for attacks on Faylaq al-Sham, the most powerful FSA group in area.

Tensions between #HTS & the opposition have been constant since Jan '17 - but intensified lately as FSA groups consider unity/ops room.

Depending on substance of rumors, #HTS may pre-emptively attack potential threats (again); or build tensions enough to deter #Turkey.

[OUTLAW 09]

Predictably, Syria "safe" zones didn't stay safe for long: pro-government planes & artillery already attack in Hama.


The #FSA burned pro-#Assad troops, trying to advance in northern #Hama province despite the #Astana deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eice...fied=1#…

Also the so-called #Homs De-Escalation Zone was shelled while #Kremlin regime jets hovered above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ByMmXBj1aY#…

Lataminah today,a town inside the "Wider Idlib De-Escalation Zone"
The #AssadPutin army ignored the deal of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeUk...utu.be#…

Pro-#Assad activists make no secret out of the fact that their dictator's army ignores the #DeEscalationZones deal in northern #Hama prov.

[davidbfpo]

The tone here has changed of late, with words like 'sniping' and 'that's rich'. Is that really necessary? Please remember others read the forums and it is very likely the tone discourages them from contributing.

[OUTLAW 09]

By Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-...n-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:

The authors of this article really do need to study every Russian offered eastern Ukraine and Syrian ceasefire and then tell me Russia was ever going to hold to it?

It does not take a rocket scientist to see they never have held to a single ceasefire that they themselves have both pushed and then signed....

Day 2 of the #DeEscalationZones farce.
#AssadPutin & #Iran keep attacking where they need to according to their #Syria strategies.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...this is why you must pay more attention to what CrowBat and I both post here.....

Although in Iraq..this is a serious indicator of IS eventually going back to gerrilla warfare from which they evolved in the first place.....

I saw the first versions of this in a major battle in Diyala 2005...and it has further evolved....

They will never be "militarily defeated"...

The first launcher is a standardised anti-tank weapon cobbled together by IS in Mosul. The second appears to fire a more powerful rocket.

Azor...BTW...all this talk about "defeating IS" is exactly what it is..."talk"...while they are supposedly losing in Mosul and Raqqa...IS is back into their standard sanctuary of Diyala and the Diyala River Basin which was their fall back position every time they got pushed out of Mosul...Ramadi..Baghdad..etc...from 2003 until 2010.

THIS has to be the 90th time US and or Iraqi forces have moved into Diyala....

Iraqi forces launch an "extensive operations" to root out Isis in Diyala after latest Isis attacks

IS is back to the basics again..guerrilla warfare and they practice that very well....

There are areas in the Diyala River Basin that make the jungles of SVN look "friendly"....

[OUTLAW 09]

Trump to Tell Turkey: We’re Going to Take Raqqa With the Kurds
The White House is poised to greenlight an Obama administration plan to seize the last bastion of the Islamic State in Syria.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/05/...ith-the-kurds/

If in fact confirmed then Turkey might in fact now nudge themselves ever closer to Russia as they view the US in the same light as the PKK...AND they now know that the countless US official statements given to Turkey concerning US support to and control of PKK are basically a farce...and not to be trusted....this might in fact be why they agreed to the Russian/Iranian proposed safe zones agreement...when the FSA did not agree to them....

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT to read and fully understand the implications of this article...

Jihadi Clerics Dispute Legitimacy of Hay’at Tahrir#al-Sham
By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on 30 April 2017
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...ahrir-al-sham/

AND understand the implications of these articles as well....

Al-Qaeda in Syria Condemn Jaysh al-Islam for East Ghuta#Infighting
By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on 4#May 2017
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...ta-infighting/

Al-Qaeda Aligned Jihadist in Syria Condemns Rebel Group Jaysh#al-Islam
By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on 2 May 2017
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...aysh-al-islam/

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian Kurdish fighters are newly armed w/ sophisticated American combat equipment as they close in on Raqqa
http://www.militarytimes.com/article...itary-weapons#

SO will now Turkey ramp up heavily arming FSA units in order to counter this equipment as it gets directly into the hands of PKK units fighting inside Turkey?

AND will Turkey believe CENTCOM/SOF/Trump when they say it will not get into PKK hands????

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Zilaqiat village is under regime control. Pro-#Assad forces will try to advance next week if rebels don't launch an offensive.