Jaish Khalid ibn al-Walid reportedly executed several prisoners today, including a captured rebel commander
Syria #SOHR claim #Assad forces conducted 500 (air)strikes on northern #Hama the past 36 hours
I can visually confirm ~50 during that period
95% inside the Kremlin's "de-escalation zone"
Another fake ceasefire to concentrate firepower.
Latest #Syria deal is more of the same - raises more questions than answers.
=> “Good luck to the guarantors,” as one U.S official told me.
Charles Lister
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister 1h
Here are my thoughts on #Lavrov’s upcoming visit to #Washington tomorrow - hoping for U.S support for #Syria zones:
http://www.mei.edu/content/article/r...day-briefing#…
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-08-2017 at 05:23 PM.
Jaish Khalid ibn al-Walid reportedly executed several prisoners today, including a captured rebel commander
Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-08-2017 at 06:58 PM. Reason: Non-Syrian part copied to Pakistani thread
Rather a complicated thesis. Ignores the fact that the pro-#Assad coalition uses the #PKK to limit #Turkey in #Syria
https://goo.gl/M9AmnH
Hayat Tahrir a-Sham confiscated equipment of a reporter w/ the Idlib Media Center for "lack of license" in Jisr a-Shoughour, Idlib
To CrowBat RE: Aerial Blockade/NFZ/NDZ
CrowBat,
See below. I have no wish to argue with you for the sake of arguing, and I acknowledge your expertise in various military areas. Having said that, I am holding that a U.S.-led attempt to blockade Syria or impose a no-fly or no-drive zone would have failed in the same way as the blockade of Berlin, and for very similar reasons.
It is my understanding that the Iranian military intervention in Syria, in terms of special and mercenary forces deployed, reached full strength during the latter half of 2015 and has remained at constant levels ever since. However, Iranian military spending only grew by 1.25% per year annualized in constant USD over the 2013 through 2015 period. Therefore, despite the sharp haircut of –21% in military spending from 2012 to 2013 and the overall government spending cuts from 2013 through 2015, Iran was not deterred by sanctions or low oil prices from growing its presence in Syria.Originally Posted by CrowBat
In terms of international relations, economic conditions, fiscal wherewithal and military capacity, Russia had a much freer hand to intervene in Syria in 2013 than it did in 2014, after it had committed to invading Ukraine. Note that Russia deployed forces to Syria more than seven months after the last major battle of the Russo-Ukrainian War and after it had reinforced Crimea, and that its contribution included elements that had fought in Ukraine. By the time of the Syrian intervention, Russia had been under Western sanctions for a year and a half, had forces committed to the border with Ukraine, oil prices had cratered, Russia had burned through 19% of its forex reserves and NATO was asserting itself with rotational forces and a more ready posture.
Had they chosen to intervene in late 2013 at the level that they would do in late 2015, both Iran and Russia may well have turned to Iraq for aerial and overland logistics. In 2013, Maliki was busy excluding the Sunni Arabs from the Iraqi public sector and military, relations with Teheran were strong and relations with Washington were at a very weak point.
U.S. redeployments to Iraq began in June 2014, but were clearly incapable of halting Daesh’s progress or preventing the various massacres that Daesh committed. It was not until September that the U.S. had enough airpower over Iraq to stall Daesh’s offensives and help the Iraqi forces begin the slow process of rollback. Therefore, assuming that Iraqi permission was secured by Iran and Russia, the U.S. would have not been able to interdict a surge into Syria in time.
Back to the tricky matter of intentions. After the fiasco in Libya in 2011, it was evident that the Kremlin was determined to spoil any other U.S.-led attempts at regime change, and it believes that the uprising in Syria was at the behest of the U.S. and its allies with the objective of ousting Assad. As for Teheran, Syria is considered as vital to Iran as Belarus or Ukraine is to Russia. Arguably, the reduction of Syria’s IADS by direct SEAD/DEAD or indirectly by civil war would presage Israeli and/or U.S.-led airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
For a variety of considerations, intervening in Syria was worth the risk to both Iran and Russia in 2013. Iran would have risked improving the case for a pre-emptive war, but Iran had learned the right lessons from the destruction of Osirak, and knew the worth of being perceived as yet another victim of Israeli-American aggression.
Lastly, despite the JCPOA not being an executive agreement much less a treaty ratified by the U.S. Senate, Iran has done nothing to convince the new Administration or Congress of its good intentions. The JCPOA meant more to Obama than it did to Khamenei, and the alleged rewards to Iran for compliance have been far less than the anti-JCPOA crowd claimed.
I am not attempting to change your opinion. I will say that you have an emotional attachment to it that tends to ignore some weak premises and gloss over inconvenient dynamics.
- What about entering Syrian airspace by way of Iraq, the Mediterranean or Lebanon?
- What about the Russians daring the U.S. and its allies to fire on them first?
- What about the gaps that would have existed in the blockade coverage for months, particularly where Iraq, Lebanon and the Mediterranean were concerned?
- What about objections within NATO by Greece, Italy and others?
- What about Cypriot attempts to deny the use of Akrotiri?
Putin ate up the Su-24 shootdown remember, and used the tragedy for public relations gains despite having a long-term objective of bringing Erdogan closer.
Outlaw,
I didn't realize that you were moderating here now. The war in Syria is certainly more exciting than the monotony in Donbas - except of course for those unfortunate enough to cross paths with a land mine, sniper fire or shrapnel - but currently the only developments of interest are the so-called "safe zones".
Not to repeat myself, but I would like to see U.S. aircraft challenge those zones and see if the Russians or Turks are prepared to enforce their closure to Coalition aircraft.
U.S. foreign policy with regard to Syria has been: "Daesh First".
Weeping and gnashing your teeth won't make a difference any more than it did for the Central and Eastern Europeans who were betrayed by the "Grand Alliance", and whose pre- and postwar suffering at the hands of the Russians went unremarked until the 1980s.
I have said all that I am going to on the subject of the PYD-YPG, until there is a new development.
For someone so determined to take Turkey's perspective on who are terrorists and what is terrorism without question, you would do well to apply the same lens to the burgeoning nationalism in Ukraine, which has not been disabused of its affection for its own historical terrorists...
RE: "Safe Zones"
Today's headlines...
- Syria rejects international forces in safe zones (http://abcnews.go.com/International/...rhood-47269338)
- Mattis: US reviewing Syria safe zones but has many questions http://abcnews.go.com/International/...tions-47270927
This appears to be yet another stillborn Russian ceasefire initiative, and seems to serve a number of purposes:
- Russia wants to show that it is a key Middle Eastern power broker
- After the Pyrrhic victory in Aleppo and Q1 reverses, pro-Assad forces need a breather
- The FSA also needs a breather
- Both the FSA and pro-Assad forces want to deal with HTS
- Turkey wants space to deal with the YPG
- The recent strike on Shayrat has made Assad leery of further U.S. intervention
- Public opinion will support any suggestion of a ceasefire and this may deter further U.S. or Turkish campaigns
Of course, none of this is relevant to the fight against Daesh. Perhaps the West will come to realize that the local actors have their own scores to settle and that Daesh is mainly a sideshow now, except of course for those goofy marchers holding candles to ward off the next atrocity in the West.
FSA-SDF Fighting Around Azaz and Tal Rifat Today
Per: https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/
- Sham Front destroyed a SDF bulldozer with an ATGM in Sheikh Issa
- SDF repelled an attack by AAS and the Sulhan Murad Brigade on Sheikh Issa
- FSA destroy two SDF bulldozers near Ayn Dakna
Begs the question...if you and I and the Ukrainians truly know that whatever Russian "ceasefire" they themselves propose....sign onto never ever gets implemented and now we have seen it happen again and again in Syria WHY then the following....
1. Kerry/Obama celebrated each one with the statement.."we are testing the seriousness of the Russians"
2. the Trump WH and Trump himself says nothing simply because they have nothing to actually say as they have no strategy to speak of....
AND now we see Russian FM Larvor f\lying to DC to try to get the US to sign into an already failed "Russian ceasefire".....
My concern and I think CrowBat has already voiced it...why did the Turks sign on to be a guarantor? Did they do it in order to ensure Gazprom builds their pipeline which would then give them a solid transit cash flow and a cheap energy source....so were they simply bribed into the agreement?
So in the world of IR....why does any US WH believe a single word, comment, statement and or Russian "ceasefire" in the face of true reality on the part of Russian lying?
I will give an excellent example of Russian actions...for weeks and months Putin gives verbal support to LePen, provided her cash for her campaign and unleashed a massive disinformation attack on Marcon and then hacked him in the last days before the election and used US neo right proTrump supporters and even Trump tweeted support for her...THEN sends Marco a letter stating "we should overcome our differences.....meaning lift the sanctions...in full belief suddenly Marcon will forget what happened...
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-09-2017 at 05:42 AM.
BTW...I keep pointing out that as long as this is ongoing there will never be a coherent Syrian, Korean, Russian, NATO, EU FP coming out of the Trump WH or coming from a Trump tweeter barrage.
Trump is far to busy pushing back of his own Russian connections investigation.
AND the Us will never have a clear and concise counter non linear FP against cyber and information warfare.
Not sure which hearing he was watching. Either way, ladies and gents, our 'President'. It's not just us, the whole world is laughing.
BTW the last Trump tweet referring to Clappers statements...is basically a lie as that is not what Clapper stated under OATH......AND Yates also was under OATH...Trump has never been placed under OATH....
AND then Trumps signs the extension to the US visa program EB-1B for foreign investors who invest 500K in US companies...JUST has the Kushner family pitches to Chinese investors...under the mantra in China presentation invest in the Kushner real estate 500K and Trump will get you a visa for the US...
Kushner family sells $500,000 'investor visa' to rich Chinese at Beijing ballroom event.
Let that sink in.
So what does the rest of the world now think of US FP?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-09-2017 at 06:11 AM.
AGAIN if a US President cannot be trusted to state the truth were it is possible to state the truth what do world leaders then believe he is capable of doing...definitely not formulating and defending his own FP....
Remember this was stated under a legal binding OATH which makes it a piece of potential court actions...
This is incorrect or false.
Learn more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...eline/#…
If a sitting US President lies about this...can he hold to any stated Trump FP...if one looks closely he has been changing on just about everything stated concerning FP over the last 18 months...
Appears that DoS and Congress slid something by the Trump WH that will effectively block a Russian reset that Trump wants to do both in ME and Europe...this was pointed out by a hardcore proRussian twitter account....evidently Trump signed the law not really knowing what was in it????
Alex Kokcharov#@AlexKokcharov 8h
8 hours ago
By making this bill a #US #law president #Trump effectively ended any hopes for #Russia-#US reset. Timing could not have been worse: 9 May pic.twitter.com/PdirHUpro7
Announcer during military parade on Red Square: Russian air force displayed mastery in special missions, won respect and love of Syrians.
BUT he forgot to add...killed hundreds of civilians ...men, women and children and supported the use of sarin CWs....
Clapper: "to me the transcendent issue here is Russian interference in our elections," calls unmasking & other issues "ancillary"
BUT WAIT...exactly what did you state on the US/PKK hell of a mess both politically and militarily?
The increased slow step fighting between FSA and YPG which is filled to 90% by PKK fighters should be showing one where this is headed.......
Yes Ukraine is a mid level no actually a full level war in the middle of Central Europe and shows us in over two years EXACTLY what Russia "says and then does".....
I would remind you I have seen PKK shotouts on the streets of Hannover Germany long before the US named them a "terrorist group" and Turkey has been dueling with them since 1978...For someone so determined to take Turkey's perspective on who are terrorists and what is terrorism without question, you would do well to apply the same lens to the burgeoning nationalism in Ukraine, which has not been disabused of its affection for its own historical terrorists
So in some aspects what Turkey states about PKK is exactly what the US naming of PKK as terrorists states/stated.
"Burgeoning nationalism" in Ukraine...you actually mean the following...a country seeking it's own identity after Soviet suppression since 1918 right..then German suppression and then again Soviet suppression and then Russian oligarch theft of the entire State budget for one year...that "nationalism"??..
And eastern Ukraine....a GRU exported war led by a GRU COL who is alive and well in St. Petersburg after the deaths of most of the 14 that started that war and crossed with him from Crimea into eastern Ukraine....as well as a number of Ukrainian criminals who joined him in 2014....
OCCRP @OCCRP
The Coyote’s Trail: A Machine Gun’s Path from #Serbia to #Syria
https://www.occrp.org/en/makingakill...bia-to-syria/#
Azor...well worth reading on how Serbia and Syria fit in the Russian actions right now in the Balkans...
OCCRP are the ones who broke the Panama Papers....
Kind of sums up the current Trump/CENTCOM/SOF FP on the Kurdish PKK....
After reading this, I've checked the last two days. Here the results:
- Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 7 May#2017
- Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 8 May 2017.
Conclusions are on hand:
1.) Lataminah is bombed, especially by Assadists, but nowhere as heavily as during the closing days of April this year.
2.) In no way has anybody in Syria even ‘flown 500 air strikes’, and there can be no word about Lataminah getting hit by 500 of these in the last two days.
...and the quality of SOHR's reporting is further descending into an abyss - and this right on the heels of their complete failure to report Assadist casualties from the March-April offensive (at most, they reported ~20 non-Syrian pro-regime deaths, while the IRGC alone lost at least 50).
Question is: what and how many Syrians?
Alone the title of Airwars.org's report Reckless Disregard... says it all: casualty figures went into thousands already during the first few months of the Russian intervention...BUT he forgot to add...killed hundreds of civilians ...men, women and children and supported the use of sarin CWs....
BUT WAIT
Russian MoD claims they could not fly due to the rain.....
You know what they used to say in X-Files: 'Trust no one...' ;-)
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