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Thread: Syria in 2017 (April-December)

  1. #161
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    Default To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria

    RE: Russian Ceasefires

    The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control. Indeed, the approach that Moscow takes to expand and deepen its rule in Chechnya, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas, is the same approach that Putin uses to hold onto power in the Kremlin. The ceasefire violations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were ordered directly from the Kremlin, which held escalation dominance over Ukraine. However, Moscow cannot fully control the insurgents in Donbas, let alone Teheran or Damascus, who have more skin in the game in Syria.

    The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them. Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts. Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun, and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.

    The discussions in Astana only serve to make Moscow appear more indispensable to peace in Syria than it actually is, and to regain the public relations initiative after the TLAM strike on Shayrat.

    RE: Turkey and the “Safe Zones”

    This is a signal of displeasure with the CJTF-OIR providing CAS to YPG forces, and to possibly help Ankara target the YPG more freely. Ankara worries that a conflict between the TAF/FSA with the YPG will lead to U.S. interference, as exemplified by the Marines attempting to establish a buffer between the YPG and the TAF/FSA.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    I will give an excellent example of Russian actions...for weeks and months Putin gives verbal support to LePen, provided her cash for her campaign and unleashed a massive disinformation attack on Marcon and then hacked him in the last days before the election and used US neo right pro-Trump supporters and even Trump tweeted support for her...THEN sends Marco a letter stating "we should overcome our differences.....meaning lift the sanctions...in full belief suddenly Marcon will forget what happened...
    Stay on topic please. There are numerous other soapbox threads for you.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    The increased slow step fighting between FSA and YPG which is filled to 90% by PKK fighters should be showing one where this is headed...
    According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?

    Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    I would remind you I have seen PKK shootouts on the streets of Hannover Germany long before the US named them a "terrorist group" and Turkey has been dueling with them since 1978...So in some aspects what Turkey states about PKK is exactly what the US naming of PKK as terrorists states/stated.
    I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.

    The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries. This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general. In particular, Turkey has used paramilitaries against the Kurds in a campaign of state terrorism. These Turkish paramilitaries are not dissimilar to the Loyalist/Unionist paramilitaries of Northern Ireland: they have overlapping memberships with the security services, they engage in narcotics trafficking, extortion and other crimes and they carry out extrajudicial killings, and they are protected by the state from prosecution.

    As for the incident in Hanover, what exactly are you referring to? Can you be sure that it was the PKK as opposed to non-PKK Kurds in Germany?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    ...you actually mean the following...a country seeking it's own identity after Soviet suppression since 1918 right..then German suppression and then again Soviet suppression and then Russian oligarch theft of the entire State budget for one year...that "nationalism"??...
    I will reply on the Russo-Ukrainian War thread in the interests of staying on-topic.

  2. #162
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    Default Chatham House: Putin’s ‘Safe Zones’ in Syria Are Nothing of the Kind

    By Lina Khatib: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/...e-nothing-kind

    Although the agreement on the establishment of ‘de-escalation areas’ in Syria, signed by Russia, Turkey and Iran on 4 May, appears positive at face value, it is unlikely to be a first steps towards peace. The Assad regime and its Russian backers have shown little seriousness about reaching an agreement with the opposition – this agreement seems instead likely to pour fuel on the fire.

    Similar agreements have often been used by Russia and the Assad regime to hurt the credibility of the Syrian opposition and of rebel groups, whose continued participation in peace talks while the regime bombardment of civilians goes on makes them appear disconnected from the situation on the ground. And the inclusion of Iran as a ‘guarantor’ caused the Syrian rebel groups participating in the talks to storm out in frustration at its role.

    The media have reported on the agreement as being about the establishment of ‘safe zones’, but ‘de-escalation areas’ are not the same thing. Safe zones would not be run by any of the parties participating in the conflict. The de-escalation zones, on the other hand, allow for Russia and Iran to set up checkpoints and observation posts ‘to ensure that the provisions of the ceasefire regime are implemented’.

    And although the agreement says that the ‘guarantors’ (Russia, Iran and Turkey) would ‘call upon the conflicting parties to stop using any kinds of weapons in the de-escalation areas’ (thus ignoring that Russia and Iran are themselves two of those conflicting parties), the agreement later says that the guarantors ‘shall undertake all necessary measures to force out of the de-escalation areas the groups of ISIL [ISIS] and Jabhat al-Nusra [now also known as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham], as well as other groups that have not joined the ceasefire regime’.

    The inclusion of this clause is important. Visualizing how the de-escalation areas would operate, one can imagine areas encircled by Russian and Iranian (and Turkish) troops, who use their observation posts to monitor the movements of armed groups inside the areas. Russia and Iran would continue to engage in military activity inside those areas under the pretext of forcing out ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.

    The increased intermingling of Jabhat al-Nusra with other rebel groups means that those groups will be regarded as legitimate targets for Russia and Iran under the signed agreement. This might in turn push rebel groups to engage in military confrontation with Nusra.

    These scenarios can then be used by Russia and Iran to argue that it is not possible to ‘deliver humanitarian assistance’ or ‘ensure the movement of unarmed civilians in the areas’, as the agreement postulates, putting the burden squarely on the rebel groups. This would be especially the case in the Idlib governorate, which has a high concentration of rebel groups and a presence of Nusra fighters.

    Idlib is also where Iran-backed militias have comparatively less access than other areas mentioned in the agreement, namely the region north of Homs, eastern Ghouta and southern Syria. The plan to establish a de-escalation area in Idlib could therefore be a way for Iran to infiltrate this region ‘legitimately’.

    The agreement’s timing also comes after a change of stance by Russia towards local councils in Syria, as Russia included a role for the local councils in a draft constitution for Syria that it presented in a previous round of talks in Astana. The likely explanation for this change is that Russia is hoping to absorb the local councils into the Syrian state under the auspices of a settlement agreement. Since local councils operate in some of the regions listed in the agreement on de-escalation areas, Russia’s plan seems to be to use the de-escalation areas as the first step towards neutralizing the local councils.

    None of these outcomes would have the effect of de-escalating the conflict. Instead, they would continue a well-worn strategy to use agreements as a pretext for advancing the interests of the Assad regime and its backers. Don’t be fooled.

  3. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    RE: Russian Ceasefires

    The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control. Indeed, the approach that Moscow takes to expand and deepen its rule in Chechnya, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas, is the same approach that Putin uses to hold onto power in the Kremlin. The ceasefire violations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were ordered directly from the Kremlin, which held escalation dominance over Ukraine. However, Moscow cannot fully control the insurgents in Donbas, let alone Teheran or Damascus, who have more skin in the game in Syria.

    The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them. Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts. Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun, and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.

    The discussions in Astana only serve to make Moscow appear more indispensable to peace in Syria than it actually is, and to regain the public relations initiative after the TLAM strike on Shayrat.

    RE: Turkey and the “Safe Zones”

    This is a signal of displeasure with the CJTF-OIR providing CAS to YPG forces, and to possibly help Ankara target the YPG more freely. Ankara worries that a conflict between the TAF/FSA with the YPG will lead to U.S. interference, as exemplified by the Marines attempting to establish a buffer between the YPG and the TAF/FSA.



    Stay on topic please. There are numerous other soapbox threads for you.



    According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?

    Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?



    I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.

    The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries. This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general. In particular, Turkey has used paramilitaries against the Kurds in a campaign of state terrorism. These Turkish paramilitaries are not dissimilar to the Loyalist/Unionist paramilitaries of Northern Ireland: they have overlapping memberships with the security services, they engage in narcotics trafficking, extortion and other crimes and they carry out extrajudicial killings, and they are protected by the state from prosecution.

    As for the incident in Hanover, what exactly are you referring to? Can you be sure that it was the PKK as opposed to non-PKK Kurds in Germany?



    I will reply on the Russo-Ukrainian War thread in the interests of staying on-topic.
    It is a farce to openly state here that Russia cannot control it´s own allies....stop fuel for armoured vehicles and stop ammo runs into eastern Ukraine and stop paying the mercenaries and see how fast they adhere to agreements...stop the air strikes and see just how far Assad and or Iranian mercenaries move on the ground.

    According to US sources...if CrowBat has shown you anything here...the so called US CENTCOM statements carry no weight whatsoever....

    If you saw the posted photos of SOF with so called SDF Kurds they were top PKK leaders.....the use of percentages can prove anything at anytime and anywhere.

    BTW the US has repeatedly lied to Turkey when it comes to what SDF will do...remember the US stated they would pull out of Manbij...

    Lastly...if you do not understand that right now what Russia does in the Ukraine...in Syria ...meddling and participating in US elections and Trump collusion with Russia IT IS ALL intertwined under the mantra...non linear warfare.

    So if you do not think that the FBI was closing in on Trump and his advisors for their Russian collusion...THEN explain the firing of the FBI Director who has THREE ongoing Grand Juries...

    The killing on the streets of Hannover was conducted and carried out by PKK Kurds from northern Syria....one of a number of incidents that caused Germany to outlaw the organization before the US named them a terrorist org....

    IF you think the firing of the FBI Director will not impact directly US FP over the next six months or even longer then you have no understanding of internal US politics.

    Trump will be firing tweets around each corner now as the demands of a special prosecutor will become reality and he will be dead in the water as was Nixon was ...FP will take second position.

    So if you think that this is off topic then you do not understand just how US FP is driven.

    IF you truly think the title of Trump's firing letter....."Restoring Public Trust in the FBI" is correct and accurate then you really do have a serious problem.

    And if you think that single letter will not disrupt badly US FP anywhere in the world you are wrong as well..many world leaders fully understand the role of rule of law and when they met Trump at say G20 meetings do you think they will be trusting Trump...not for a moment.

    Example..this morning German news media coverage clearly is stating there is a connection between the firing and the FBI Investigation into Trump and his advisors...

    AND I am on topic BTW....because I believe US internal politics drives US external politics....do not think for a single moment the shout of "coverup" will accompany anything he does.....

    BTW...if you listened to Trump's spokesperson yesterday....

    1. US is going to arm the Arab elements of SDF as it is the only one that can take Raqqa...notice I posted this two days ago...AND notice the Trump WH did not specify just how many Arab fighters this was going to be....

    2. he then stated the US is committed to having YPG occupied Arab areas returned to Arabs......

    NOTE.....not a single PKK/YPG village taken that is in fact Arab...HAS EVER returned to their Arab residents...BTW AI and HRW have verified that PKK/YPG has in fact conducted ethnic cleansing in those villages and even then destroyed them.....

    So tell me the US is not lying to the face of Turkey and Turkey fully knows this....and then do not be surprised to see more and more FSA/YPG clashes

    ALSO even after the high level Turkish military visit to Mattis to show them the Turkish plan to take Raqqa....Trump WH is still going with SDF/YPG/PKK
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-10-2017 at 04:43 AM.

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    It is a farce to openly state here that Russia cannot control it´s own allies....stop fuel for armoured vehicles and stop ammo runs into eastern Ukraine and stop paying the mercenaries and see how fast they adhere to agreements...stop the air strikes and see just how far Assad and or Iranian mercenaries move on the ground.

    According to US sources...if CrowBat has shown you anything here...the so called US CENTCOM statements carry no weight whatsoever....

    If you saw the posted photos of SOF with so called SDF Kurds they were top PKK leaders.....the use of percentages can prove anything at anytime and anywhere.

    BTW the US has repeatedly lied to Turkey when it comes to what SDF will do...remember the US stated they would pull out of Manbij...

    Lastly...if you do not understand that right now what Russia does in the Ukraine...in Syria ...meddling and participating in US elections and Trump collusion with Russia IT IS ALL intertwined under the mantra...non linear warfare.

    So if you do not think that the FBI was closing in on Trump and his advisors for their Russian collusion...THEN explain the firing of the FBI Director who has THREE ongoing Grand Juries...

    The killing on the streets of Hannover was conducted and carried out by PKK Kurds from northern Syria....one of a number of incidents that caused Germany to outlaw the organization before the US named them a terrorist org....

    IF you think the firing of the FBI Director will not impact directly US FP over the next six months or even longer then you have no understanding of internal US politics.

    Trump will be firing tweets around each corner now as the demands of a special prosecutor will become reality and he will be dead in the water as was Nixon was ...FP will take second position.

    So if you think that this is off topic then you do not understand just how US FP is driven.

    IF you truly think the title of Trump's firing letter....."Restoring Public Trust in the FBI" is correct and accurate then you really do have a serious problem.

    And if you think that single letter will not disrupt badly US FP anywhere in the world you are wrong as well..many world leaders fully understand the role of rule of law and when they met Trump at say G20 meetings do you think they will be trusting Trump...not for a moment.

    Example..this morning German news media coverage clearly is stating there is a connection between the firing and the FBI Investigation into Trump and his advisors...

    AND I am on topic BTW....because I believe US internal politics drives US external politics....do not think for a single moment the shout of "coverup" will accompany anything he does.....

    BTW...if you listened to Trump's spokesperson yesterday....

    1. US is going to arm the Arab elements of SDF as it is the only one that can take Raqqa...notice I posted this two days ago...AND notice the Trump WH did not specify just how many Arab fighters this was going to be....

    2. he then stated the US is committed to having YPG occupied Arab areas returned to Arabs......

    NOTE.....not a single PKK/YPG village taken that is in fact Arab...HAS EVER returned to their Arab residents...BTW AI and HRW have verified that PKK/YPG has in fact conducted ethnic cleansing in those villages and even then destroyed them.....

    So tell me the US is not lying to the face of Turkey and Turkey fully knows this....and then do not be surprised to see more and more FSA/YPG clashes

    ALSO even after the high level Turkish military visit to Mattis to show them the Turkish plan to take Raqqa....Trump WH is still going with SDF/YPG/PKK
    So this is not going to impact any US FP moves over the next months??

    The optics of firing the FBI director investigating your Russia ties then meeting the Russian FM on THE VERY NEXT DAY defy easy description.

    Just in: Senate Intel Com sent lengthy letter to Treasury requesting detailed financial info on transactions of Trump, family, & assoc.

    A source with knowledge of the investigation says that nine sealed indictments came down in one case with sixteen more expected in others
    .

    SO was this move to fire and then meet Larvor an attempt to signal Putin that he is back into fully supporting all Russian moves in Syria and Ukraine....think so.....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-10-2017 at 05:01 AM.

  5. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    RE: Russian Ceasefires

    The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control.
    Well, at least in Syria they're trying to avoid this problem - by insistently cooperating with the regime and forcing all the warlords to subject themselves to the central command.

    The result of this insistence is the currently-ongoing process of 're-vamping' of the 'SAA', i.e. this 'V Corps': this is now a conglomerate of militias that received official designations (like 1st Brigade, 79th Battalion etc.) and are operating under a centralized command. Similarly, whatever was left of different 'Alawites-only' militias of the IV Assault Corps is concentrated within the newly-established 30th Division Republican Guards, etc.

    How successful this effort might get is left to be seen, then so far only a small part of all the different militias were put under the centralized command in this way - but, one can't say they're not trying.

    The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them.
    Experiences from Syria have shown that cease-fires negotiated by the IRGC were the ones working the best. Those negotiated by Assadists and Hezbollah/Lebanon were always entirely pointless.

    In this case, Iran was involved, so no reason to expect the IRGC to ignore the cease-fire. That this is going to exploit this opportunity to regroup, recuperate and prepare for further operations, is beyond any doubt. But, the same can be expected from any other side too.


    Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts.
    UN mediation efforts are less worth than cease-fires negotiated with Assadists...

    Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun...
    Not the least. They knew exactly what was Assad about to do, but - and contrary to the US intel - didn't know that the order was issued. Apparent reason for this is that the Assadists are using communication links of the Ba'ath Party HQ in Damascus - instead of regular military channels - to issue such orders. I consider myself as in possession of strong, even if circumstantial evidence that the NSA has meanwhile learned to monitor the Ba'ath Party's communications - in addition to military traffic - while the Russians didn't.

    ...and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.
    The Russians have absolutely no air defence assets in Damascus area (at most they're happy if the GRU can keep Bashar safe from Maher and his clique) and thus can't do anything at all there.

    According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?
    That's according to the CENTCOM - and, so I'm sure, utter PRBS.

    The YPG's military strength was estimated at 50,000 already back in late 2015. There is no way the SDF's 'Arab element' has recruited as many fighters ever since - and that for multiple reasons. Firstly, Arabs in NE Syria are more afraid of the PKK than of the Daesh; secondly, for a force supposedly consisting of up to between 30-45% of Arab combatants, the SDF remains completely controlled by the PKK (yes, by 6 PKK-commanders, and just 1 one Arab/FSyA representative); and, thirdly, the YPG has meanwhile attacked and disarmed a number of Free Syrian Army units that joined the SDF (in addition to some of KNC's militias).

    Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?
    I'm not Outlaw, but I 'claim' that at least 50%, and probably up to 60% of the YPG is comprised of Turkish Kurds, which is no surprise considering the YPG is - just like the PYD - a result of PKK's transfer to Syria.

    Reason for this conclusion: rate of non-Syrian casualties of the YPG. Turkish citizens are continuously making out between 50% and 60% of YPG's KIAs.

    I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.
    No problem with that: everybody's got the right to self-determination - so also Kurds in Turkey.

    'Problem' is the fact that the USA and the PKK/PYD/YPG are continuously acting as if the PKK would be the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Turkey, and as if the PKK/PYD/YPG is the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Syria. That, however, is BS.

    Not only that the PKK was never 'elected' by anybody into any kind of a position, but - and foremost - there are dozens of other Kurdish parties (few inside Turkey, at least 13-14 inside Syria), which are no PKK/PYD/YPG, but against it.

    With other words, and as already emphasised: Kurds of Turkey and Syria are not united; but, they are presented to the US public as such, and then on behalf of a Marxist terrorist organization that's assassinating, arresting, detaining and ethnically cleansing anybody who disagrees with it.

    The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries.
    If you want to count centuries, then this period is at least twice as long.

    This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general.
    Erm... majority of Kurds in Turkey and Syria live in rural areas, and are as religious (actually, in this regards Kurds are even slightly more religious and bigotic than average Turks), as backwards, as dogmatic, and as patriarchal as their Turkish neighbours. Every single Kurd I happened to meet in my life so far, was at least three times more supremacist and authoritarian than most of Turks I've met so far - combined (and mind: most of Turks I met so far are from the area along the Black Sea, usually described as the 'poorest' and 'most primitive' part of Turkey by nearly everybody I know).

    Whatever... matter of fact is that both Turks and Kurds have their secular side too. Right now it's primarily due to Erdogan and the US-propping of the PKK that the later appears to be doing better.
    Last edited by CrowBat; 05-10-2017 at 05:47 AM.

  6. #166
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    Azor...this in needed as you tend to ignore the intertwining of non linear warfare used by Russia to drive it's political war against it's perceived main rival the neo liberal US...this article is almost 3 yrs old....

    So what you view as being on a soapbox is actually attempting to get you to see that all is in fact intertwined....Georgia....Moldaiva....Crimea.....e astern Ukraine....countless Russian GRU/FSB global hacking attacks....Syria....influence and propaganda operations against just about the entire West...AND definitely involved in the US elections and tied into the Trump WH to include Trump himself...

    We always need to drop back and review/reread really what is meant by the Russian term non linear warfare.

    I like this particular analyst when it comes to Russia and it's intentions....and who has recently published probably one of the best studies on Russian gangs in Europe...

    https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.c...on-linear-war/


    Military-Industrial Kurier, February 27, 2013
    (My comments are indented and italicised and in red, and the bold emphases are also mine)
    THE VALUE OF SCIENCE IN PREDICTION
    General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation
    In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.
    The experience of military conflicts — including those connected with the so-called coloured revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East — confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.
    There is an old Soviet-era rhetorical device that a ‘warning’ or a ‘lesson’ from some other situation is used to outline intent and plan. The way that what purports to be an after-action take on the Arab Spring so closely maps across to what was done in Ukraine is striking. Presenting the Arab Spring–wrongly–as the results of covert Western operations allows Gerasimov the freedom to talk about what he wants to talk about: how Russia can subvert and destroy states without direct, overt and large-scale military intervention.
    The Lessons of the ‘Arab Spring’
    Of course, it would be easiest of all to say that the events of the “Arab Spring” are not war and so there are no lessons for us — military men — to learn. But maybe the opposite is true — that precisely these events are typical of warfare in the 21st century.
    In terms of the scale of the casualties and destruction, the catastrophic social, economic, and political consequences, such new-type conflicts are comparable with the consequences of any real war.
    The very “rules of war” have changed. The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness.
    For me, this is probably the most important line in the whole piece, so allow me to repeat it:#The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness. In other words, this is an explicit recognition not only that all conflicts are actually means to political ends–the actual forces used are irrelevant–but that in the modern realities, Russia must look to non-military instruments increasingly.
    The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other nonmilitary measures — applied in coordination with the protest potential of the population.
    All this is supplemented by military means of a concealed character, including carrying out actions of informational conflict and the actions of special-operations forces. The open use of forces — often under the guise of peacekeeping and crisis regulation — is resorted to only at a certain stage, primarily for the achievement of final success in the conflict.
    This is, after all, exactly what happened in Crimea, when the insignia-less “little green men” were duly unmasked as–surprise, surprise–Russian special forces and Naval Infantry only once the annexation was actually done.
    From this proceed logical questions: What is modern war? What should the army be prepared for? How should it be armed? Only after answering these questions can we determine the directions of the construction and development of the armed forces over the long term. To do this, it is essential to have a clear understanding of the forms and methods of the use of the application of force.
    What Gerasimov is signalling here, and it may prove an important point, is that the Russian military needs to be tooled appropriately. This may mean a re-opening of the traditional hostilities with the politically more powerful defence industries (that want to pump out more tanks and the other things they produce) over quite what kind of kit the military gets. When former defence minister Serdyukov announced a moratorium on buying new tanks, Putin slapped him down and restated the order. Shoigu and Gerasimov will have to be more savvy if they want to make progress on this one.
    These days, together with traditional devices, nonstandard ones are being developed. The role of mobile, mixed-type groups of forces, acting in a single intelligence-information space because of the use of the new possibilities of command-and-control systems has been strengthened. Military actions are becoming more dynamic, active, and fruitful. Tactical and operational pauses that the enemy could exploit are disappearing. New information technologies have enabled significant reductions in the spatial, temporal, and informational gaps between forces and control organs. Frontal engagements of large formations of forces at the strategic and operational level are gradually becoming a thing of the past. Long-distance, contactless actions against the enemy are becoming the main means of achieving combat and operational goals. The defeat of the enemy’s objects is conducted throughout the entire depth of his territory. The differences between strategic, operational, and tactical levels, as well as between offensive and defensive operations, are being erased. The application of high-precision weaponry is taking on a mass character. Weapons based on new physical principals and automatized systems are being actively incorporated into military activity.
    All worthy enough, but in fairness nothing we haven’t heard before.
    Asymmetrical actions have come into widespread use, enabling the nullification of an enemy’s advantages in armed conflict. Among such actions are the use of special-operations forces and internal opposition to create a permanently operating front through the entire territory of the enemy state, as well as informational actions, devices, and means that are constantly being perfected.
    This, on the other hand, does show something of a different nuance, with the renewed emphasis on “internal opposition”, something which harkens back to Soviet-era playbooks rather than post-Soviet military doctrine, which was largely cleared of such language except in some specific contexts such as counter-insurgency.
    These ongoing changes are reflected in the doctrinal views of the world’s leading states and are being used in military conflicts.
    Already in 1991, during Operation Desert Storm in Iraq, the U.S. military realized the concept of “global sweep, global power” and “air-ground operations.” In 2003 during Operation Iraqi Freedom, military operations were conducted in accordance with the so-called Single Perspective 2020.
    Now, the concepts of “global strike” and “global missile defense” have been worked out, which foresee the defeat of enemy objects and forces in a matter of hours from almost any point on the globe, while at the same time ensuring the prevention of unacceptable harm from an enemy counterstrike. The United States is also enacting the principles of the doctrine of global integration of operations aimed at creating in a very short time highly mobile, mixed-type groups of forces.
    In recent conflicts, new means of conducting military operations have appeared that cannot be considered purely military. An example of this is the operation in Libya, where a no-fly zone was created, a sea blockade imposed, private military contractors were widely used in close interaction with armed formations of the opposition.
    Yes, these were all used in Libya, but whether they were that new is open to question. The key point for Gerasimov, I believe, is that actions such as the no-fly zone that were presented as (and have traditionally been) the preserve of humanitarian interventions were really used to favour one side in the conflict, the rebels. Combined with the use of mercenaries to support them, this makes Libya a convenient synecdoche for the kinds of operations the Russians are really contemplating, in which the mask of humanitarian intervention and peacekeeping can shield aggressive actions.
    We must acknowledge that, while we understand the essence of traditional military actions carried out by regular armed forces, we have only a superficial understanding of asymmetrical forms and means. In this connection, the importance of military science — which must create a comprehensive theory of such actions — is growing. The work and research of the Academy of Military Science can help with this.
    The Tasks of Military Science
    In the main, I will comment less on this section, because often it really doesn’t connect so clearly with the first half. However, taken together it is worth noting that it presents a pretty scathing picture of modern Russian military thinking.

    Continued....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-10-2017 at 08:17 AM.

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    This ties directly into the above posted article.....another example of non linear warfare being generated in Latin American an area that the US has largely been absent from due to a lack of political and military bandwidth....

    BTW Azor this goes back to a comment posted on a small Russian GRU/Spetsnaz company participating in a LA military exercise that I noted did in fact project Russian power abroad......where again you questioned my response.....

    https://www.thecipherbrief.com/artic...simov-doctrine

    How is the increased Russian involvement contributing to crime and instability in Latin America?# Who is driving this, and how does it affect the U.S.?

    In every case of significant Russian expansion, the governmental presence is accompanied by a strong criminal presence. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper noted in his Congressional testimony, Russia, a “threat actor”, is an example of a nation where “the nexus among organized crime, state actors, and business blurs the distinction between state policy and private gain.” This nexus is used to further the goals of the Russian state without the state being visible, as well as provide significant revenues to criminal groups that also have deep ties into the Russian state establishment, both civilian and military.
    The use of Russian organized crime as an instrument of state policy is not new, but it has served and will continue to serve as an important way to strengthening Latin American Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs), further crippling weak states and undermining the rule of law. That, in turn, will weaken U.S. goals and allies in the region. This is a fundamental instrument in propping up radical populist governments, like those in the ALBA alliance, as well as criminal groups, as the ALBA bloc uses TCOs as instruments of state power.

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    FSA battle against #IslamicState in Yarmouk area in southern #Syria
    #IS here without fear of any airstrikes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFsX3jWnI6A#

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    Kremlin using Syrian "safe zones" to normalize relations with US. Diplomats have just hashed out details in Vienna.
    https://rg.ru/2017/05/10/segodnia-gl...tom-ssha.html#

    Not confirmed by anyone else other than Russians...

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    ...and whoever might come to the idea to investigate the PKK - and Pentagon's relations to it - is almost certainly going to get fired too.

    BTW, here a nice collage of PKK's turncoats over the time.

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    Default To CrowBat RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Well, at least in Syria they're trying to avoid this problem - by insistently cooperating with the regime and forcing all the warlords to subject themselves to the central command...How successful this effort might get is left to be seen, then so far only a small part of all the different militias were put under the centralized command in this way - but, one can't say they're not trying.
    Well, the Russians had ample experience in complex cooperation from Chechnya, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine, prior to embarking on their Syrian adventure. Success or no with the Syrians, I do not believe that Russians control the Iranians, who have their own relationship dynamics with their auxiliaries.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Experiences from Syria have shown that cease-fires negotiated by the IRGC were the ones working the best. Those negotiated by Assadists and Hezbollah/Lebanon were always entirely pointless.

    In this case, Iran was involved, so no reason to expect the IRGC to ignore the cease-fire. That this is going to exploit this opportunity to regroup, recuperate and prepare for further operations, is beyond any doubt. But, the same can be expected from any other side too.
    I am not aware of prior ceasefires driven by the Pasdaran, but I would take it as a matter of faith that Iran calls the shots in terms of abiding by or ignoring ceasefires.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Not the least. They knew exactly what was Assad about to do, but - and contrary to the US intel - didn't know that the order was issued. Apparent reason for this is that the Assadists are using communication links of the Ba'ath Party HQ in Damascus - instead of regular military channels - to issue such orders. I consider myself as in possession of strong, even if circumstantial evidence that the NSA has meanwhile learned to monitor the Ba'ath Party's communications - in addition to military traffic - while the Russians didn't.
    I don’t follow you here. How does intercepting the order or not make a difference to Russia knowing that Assad would launch a Sarin strike? How do you explain the discombobulated Russian reactions to the Sarin attack and the subsequent TLAM reply?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    The Russians have absolutely no air defence assets in Damascus area (at most they're happy if the GRU can keep Bashar safe from Maher and his clique) and thus can't do anything at all there.
    Capability vs. intent again. The Russians have made no effort to deter or prevent Israeli airstrikes, correct? This despite the possibility of Russian servicemen being killed or injured in such attacks, in addition to the seeming loss of prestige.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    The YPG's military strength was estimated at 50,000 already back in late 2015. There is no way the SDF's 'Arab element' has recruited as many fighters ever since - and that for multiple reasons. Firstly, Arabs in NE Syria are more afraid of the PKK than of the Daesh; secondly, for a force supposedly consisting of up to between 30-45% of Arab combatants, the SDF remains completely controlled by the PKK (yes, by 6 PKK-commanders, and just 1 one Arab/FSyA representative); and, thirdly, the YPG has meanwhile attacked and disarmed a number of Free Syrian Army units that joined the SDF (in addition to some of KNC's militias).

    I'm not Outlaw, but I 'claim' that at least 50%, and probably up to 60% of the YPG is comprised of Turkish Kurds, which is no surprise considering the YPG is - just like the PYD - a result of PKK's transfer to Syria.

    Reason for this conclusion: rate of non-Syrian casualties of the YPG. Turkish citizens are continuously making out between 50% and 60% of YPG's KIAs.
    Thanks for these details. Were the Turkish Kurds who joined the YPG directly from Turkey, or were they PKK exiles from Iraq? Did current or ex-YPG members participate in the recent armed uprising in southeastern Turkey?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    'Problem' is the fact that the USA and the PKK/PYD/YPG are continuously acting as if the PKK would be the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Turkey, and as if the PKK/PYD/YPG is the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Syria. That, however, is BS. Not only that the PKK was never 'elected' by anybody into any kind of a position, but - and foremost - there are dozens of other Kurdish parties (few inside Turkey, at least 13-14 inside Syria), which are no PKK/PYD/YPG, but against it.
    With other words, and as already emphasised: Kurds of Turkey and Syria are not united; but, they are presented to the US public as such, and then on behalf of a Marxist terrorist organization that's assassinating, arresting, detaining and ethnically cleansing anybody who disagrees with it.
    Yet Turkey bears a great deal of blame for the very prominence of the PKK. The suppression of moderate opposition tends to support the formation of ideologically disciplined and extreme opposition (e.g. OUN/UIA, Black Power, PIRA, ETA, FLN, VM).

    Are there any quiet or covert efforts to rein in the PKK and PYD?

    See here from the European Center for Kurdish Studies (http://www.kurdwatch.org/pdf/KurdWat..._TallAbyad.pdf) as of January 2016:

    No Arab or Turkmen interview partners reported of ethnically motivated mass expulsions from Tall Abyad and the surrounding areas. In fact, we can assume that there have been no large-scale ethnically motivated expulsions in the region.

    For demographic reasons alone a “Kurdification” of the area is out of the question. The proportion of around ten percent Kurds is simply too low. At the same time, regulations such as only Kurds from Tall Abyad can act as a guarantor for refugees so that they can return to Tall Abyad from Turkey clearly discriminate on the basis of ethnicity.

    Furthermore, the absence of targeted ethnic expulsions does not mean that grave human-rights violations are not being committed. It is clearly not about isolated cases or as Marwan, an interview partner from Tall Abyad supposes, “personal conflicts” between a few YPG commanders from Tall Abyad and their Arab neighbors. Rather our interviews point to the fact that the PYD and its People’s Defense Units resort to exactly the mechanisms of repression that they already successfully used in the Kurdish areas. These include:

    • the targeted kidnapping of political opponents, particularly activists critical of the regime (in the Kurdish areas this includes the members of competing Kurdish parties);
    • the prevention of the entry or the return of critics;
    • cooperation with groups and individuals close to the regime;
    • the deployment of personnel in sensitive positions be it as head interrogator or, as in the Kurdish areas, as judges) whose only qualification is loyalty to the PYD;
    • the creation of institutions that seemingly represent the population but in fact only integrate groups or people who are subordinate to the PYD;
    • the preservation of all power and decision-making authority inside the PYD and its People’s Defense Units and thus the PKK;
    • the accusation that people are having close ties to the IS or are cooperating with the IS as a sweeping justification for repressive measures.
    Having noted this, I can understand why the PKK's militancy, organization and ideological unity are useful traits for the anti-Daesh Coalition. Of course, this means that the Americans are in fact quite cynical; as much as the PKK and the Turks themselves.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    …majority of Kurds in Turkey and Syria live in rural areas, and are as religious (actually, in this regards Kurds are even slightly more religious and bigotic [sic] than average Turks), as backwards, as dogmatic, and as patriarchal as their Turkish neighbors. Every single Kurd I happened to meet in my life so far, was at least three times more supremacist and authoritarian than most of Turks I've met so far…
    I’m afraid that collective attitudes aside, the oppression in Turkey is effectively unidirectional. After a flirtation with democracy, Turkey is returning to authoritarian rule, albeit by civilian Islamists rather than military secularists. Regardless, the state remains a Turkish supremacist one and the policies of Turkification will no doubt intensify as Erdogan grapples with unfavorable demographic trends and dissidents from all ethnic and religious groups.

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    Default To OUTLAW 09 RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    It is a farce to openly state here that Russia cannot control it´s [sic] own allies...stop fuel for armoured vehicles and stop ammo runs into eastern Ukraine and stop paying the mercenaries and see how fast they adhere to agreements...stop the air strikes and see just how far Assad and or Iranian mercenaries move on the ground.
    Then Moscow risks losing leverage over them. Beijing is faced with a similar dilemma with regard to Pyongyang. Look at what happens when the "Armed Forces of Novorossiya" are ignored as Putin attends to other more pressing concerns...

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Lastly...if you do not understand that right now what Russia does in the Ukraine...in Syria ...meddling and participating in US elections and Trump collusion with Russia IT IS ALL intertwined under the mantra...non linear warfare. So if you do not think that the FBI was closing in on Trump and his advisors for their Russian collusion...THEN explain the firing of the FBI Director who has THREE ongoing Grand Juries...
    Agreed. This dastardly plot is being directed by Stalin, whose brain is alive and well in a machine interface within Mount Yamantau.

    But I thought that Comey was part of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” against Hillary that has existed since at least 1996, originated in Arkansas, and has come to include Comey and Putin? Why would Trump terminate his employment, and risk Comey revealing the conspiracy that Hillary warned us about decades ago?

    Not engaging here. Feel free to use your EurRail pass to visit Hyde Park…

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    The killing on the streets of Hannover was conducted and carried out by PKK Kurds from northern Syria...one of a number of incidents that caused Germany to outlaw the organization before the US named them a terrorist org...
    Source for this particular incident? Of the list of terrorist attacks in West Germany and reunified Germany, I have not seen a single incident attributed to the PKK, although ethnic Turks in Germany have been killed by racist and ethnic German terrorists.

    Germany inherited the Turkish-Kurdish conflict due to its immigration policies. The PKK uses Germany as a base, but so does the MIT, which has developed an illegal network of 6,000 informers in Germany or roughly half the number of estimated PKK members residing there. This brazen intelligence activity on German soil puts the NSA's snooping in perspective...

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    AND I am on topic BTW....because I believe US internal politics drives US external politics....do not think for a single moment the shout of "coverup" will accompany anything he does...
    U.S. foreign policy has little to do with the Syrian Civil War. Russian, Lebanese, Iraqi, Iranian, Turkish and finally Syrian internal politics, would be more relevant.

  13. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    ...I do not believe that Russians control the Iranians, who have their own relationship dynamics with their auxiliaries.
    In Syria, the Russians are meanwhile working against Iranian interests, and this at the time the Assad-Regime is still providing the IRGC with the right to do whatever it wants to do. Thus, the chaos is actually increasing, despite Russian efforts to create a new military for the regime.

    I am not aware of prior ceasefires driven by the Pasdaran...
    All the cease-fires with various besieged pockets (like Darayya, Madaya, meanwhile largely emptied through 'reconciliation' and 'evacuations') reached since 2013 were made by the IRGC - and violated by Assadists and Hezbollah/Lebanon.

    I don’t follow you here. How does intercepting the order or not make a difference to Russia knowing that Assad would launch a Sarin strike? How do you explain the discombobulated Russian reactions to the Sarin attack and the subsequent TLAM reply?
    It's an example for how much the USA know that the Russians don't know, which in turn is an explanation for Moscow's botched-up reaction.

    Capability vs. intent again.
    Not the least. The Russian intention is to protect their bases (Hmemmem, where the SA-21s and SA-22s are based, and the area between Kweres and as-Safira, where their SA-10 and SA-17 are). The've got no own SAMs further south, nor any kind of control over Assadists air defences there. Therefore, it is neither within their intentions, nor within their capabilities to to 'prevent Israeli air strikes'.

    That aside, only GRU and one Army battalion are based in Damascus and these are deployed around the Presidential Palace. Since Israelis are never striking the same (why should they?), nor are they ever striking few bases 50-60km south of the capital, where additional GRU operators are based, there is absolutely no danger for any kind of Russian servicemen getting killed.

    Thanks for these details. Were the Turkish Kurds who joined the YPG directly from Turkey, or were they PKK exiles from Iraq?
    They are Turkish citizens and members of the PKK - and they didn't 'join' the YPG, but established it.

    Did current or ex-YPG members participate in the recent armed uprising in southeastern Turkey?
    ...I'm surprised by such questions... Don't you know that terrorists in command of the 'PYD/YPG', and thus 'commanders' that are directly cooperating with US forces - like Sahin Cilo, just for example - are either members of Ocalan's family or his close aides since decades?

    After all, I've posted Cilo's photo showing him with a US SF-operator just about a week ago...

    Yet Turkey bears a great deal of blame for the very prominence of the PKK.
    Yeah: it was Turkey - and not the former USSR and Assadist Syria - that has established the PKK, right?

    And why care about Turkish towns and villages taken over by the PKK and turned into military fortresses?

    Even less so should we care about nearly all of northern Syria being surrendered by the leading NATO member to a terrorist organization fighting a NATO member for the last 30 years...

    This all doesn't matter - because PYD/YPG are the gods of war, the future of the world, and the last hope of the mankind too, right, Azor...?

    Are there any quiet or covert efforts to rein in the PKK and PYD?
    'Rein'...? How do you rein the PKK out of the PYD, if the PYD is the PKK...?

    As next you can try to rein water out of water...

    Having noted this, I can understand why the PKK's militancy, organization and ideological unity are useful traits for the anti-Daesh Coalition. Of course, this means that the Americans are in fact quite cynical...
    'Cynical'...? Rather 'BS-itting again' - just like back in 1947-1948, then in 1954, in 1958, in 1963-1965, in 1967, in 1970, in 1973, in 1979, in 1983, in 1991, in 2003 and ever since etc.

    I’m afraid that collective attitudes aside, the oppression in Turkey is effectively unidirectional. After a flirtation with democracy, Turkey is returning to authoritarian rule, albeit by civilian Islamists rather than military secularists. Regardless, the state remains a Turkish supremacist one ...
    Sigh... Replace 'Islam' in Erdogan's vocabulary with 'Christianity' - and he sounds exactly like most of Congressmen and Senators of the Republican Party in the USA.
    Last edited by CrowBat; 05-10-2017 at 11:30 PM.

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    Jordan shot down an UAV that entered its airspace from Syria - and here evidence of Hezbollah (or the IRGC) operating UAVs over Jordan.

    This is actually a surprise: after all, Assadists are new best friends of the Jordanian 'king'...

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Jordan shot down an UAV that entered its airspace from Syria - and here evidence of Hezbollah (or the IRGC) operating UAVs over Jordan.

    This is actually a surprise: after all, Assadists are new best friends of the Jordanian 'king'...
    It is interesting in that there was a recent article in German that indicated that the Sunni nation states are now reconsidering their stance towards Israel in the face of what they now perceive to be their biggest single threat...Iranian expansionism sanctioned largely by the Iran Deal and Obama....

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    This thread is about the Syrian Civil War in 2017, not the present situation in the administration of President Trump in the USA - however much it may have an effect in Syria (which is debatable). A small number of posts have been moved to a more fitting place, a closed thread on President Trump.

    With very few exceptions the theme of such posts does not lead to a debate on the Forum, it is more like a barrage.
    davidbfpo

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    Default To CrowBat RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    In Syria, the Russians are meanwhile working against Iranian interests, and this at the time the Assad-Regime is still providing the IRGC with the right to do whatever it wants to do. Thus, the chaos is actually increasing, despite Russian efforts to create a new military for the regime.
    So where exactly do Iran and Russia differ over Syria? Where does Damascus differ with Teheran and Moscow?

    It seems to me that Moscow is satisfied with the current status quo (i.e. “freezing” the conflict with “peacekeepers” deployed), but that Damascus and Teheran want total victory, with Moscow’s help.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    The've got no own SAMs further south, nor any kind of control over Assadists air defences there. Therefore, it is neither within their intentions, nor within their capabilities to to 'prevent Israeli air strikes'.
    Yet according to other commentators at SWC, Russia has:

    • Created A2/AD bubbles that threaten Israel and the Coalition
    • Armed Lebanese Hezbollah with advanced weapons that also threaten Israel
    • Been behind the sectarian cleansing of Sunnis to pressure the EU with migrants




    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Yeah: it was Turkey - and not the former USSR and Assadist Syria - that has established the PKK, right?
    So the Kurds were living in a prosperous, secure, liberal and democratic society before the Soviets and Syrians convinced them to turn on their Turkish brethren?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    And why care about Turkish towns and villages taken over by the PKK and turned into military fortresses?
    How else to respond to marauding soldiers, secret police and paramilitary gangs?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Even less so should we care about nearly all of northern Syria being surrendered by the leading NATO member to a terrorist organization fighting a NATO member for the last 30 years...
    There was a time when NATO included more than one dictatorship, out of necessity. Now, Turkey is the one that does not fit with the others.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    This all doesn't matter - because PYD/YPG are the gods of war, the future of the world, and the last hope of the mankind too, right, Azor...?
    I have never claimed that. I have always said that the Sunni Arab supremacism represented by Daesh and Al Qaeda can only be defeated by Sunni Arabs, and that occupation forces of another ethnicity or sect, be it the Kurds or Shias, will keep the flame of grievance alive.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    'Rein'...? How do you rein the PKK out of the PYD, if the PYD is the PKK...? As next you can try to rein water out of water...
    I don’t know, which is why I asked. Support the non-PYD factions. Ensure that the YPG only includes Syrian Kurds. But any initiatives would be less than meaningful without a reckoning with the Assad-FSA conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Sigh... Replace 'Islam' in Erdogan's vocabulary with 'Christianity' - and he sounds exactly like most of Congressmen and Senators of the Republican Party in the USA.
    It must be nice taking potshots from the Habsburg’s former realm. Which country was it again that ensured the Ivans didn’t overstay their welcome in Vienna again?

    You and Outlaw have an interesting habit of delving into the nuances of Arab and Turkish Sunni Islam and Islamism, but are decidedly more judgmental on the subjects of Russia, the Kurds, the Shias and the United States. I find myself wondering whether you both have gone native given your experiences in the Middle East, and if you have personal attachments that prevent objectivity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    This thread is about the Syrian Civil War in 2017, not the present situation in the administration of President Trump in the USA - however much it may have an effect in Syria (which is debatable). A small number of posts have been moved to a more fitting place, a closed thread on President Trump.

    With very few exceptions the theme of such posts does not lead to a debate on the Forum, it is more like a barrage.
    On the contrary, and to paraphrase one of the TRADOC science fiction submissions at SWJ, the theme is more like a cannonade.

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    NOTICE anything Azor.....

    Kurdish #YPG took control of #Syria's largest dam.

    Controls most of the available Syrian water for drinking and farming....

    NOT immediately turned over to the Arab tribes in the area as was indicated would happen when Arab areas were taken under YPG/PKK control....

    Supposedly stated by the US government to Turkish government...

    ANOTHER failed US promise to Erdogan...and there is to be no coming clash...get real....

    The tone coming out of Erdogan in the last two days is starting to signal a clear intent to cross the border into Syria in multiple areas and the comments by major FSA units signals a clear intent to attack YGP/PKK if they get in the way....regardless if US troops are with them or not....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    On the contrary, and to paraphrase one of the TRADOC science fiction submissions at SWJ, the theme is more like a cannonade.
    If one cannot "see and understand" the intertwining of Russian non linear warfare in direct support to the Russian political war being directed at the West especially the US...then that person has a serious problem in "seeing and understanding" world events.....

    If one cannot "see and understand" just how this President is driving US FP into a ditch based on whims, bluffs and simple stupidity then one has a serious problem...he is making the "Wag the Dog" look like a raving success right now.....but it is a total failure....

    If one cannot "see and understand" the failures of the Obama WH in the ME especially directed at Sunni's with a full tilt to Iran then there is a serious problem....

    If one cannot "see and understand" the now the failure of Trump ME FP because there is simply none..then there is a serious problem....

    If one cannot see the coming clash between Turkey, FSA and the YPG/PKK with the US in the middle there is a serious problem.....

    We are about two weeks away from that clash...WHY....the Turkish senior military leadership attempted to convince Mattis that they are serious about their taking of Raqqa and failed....

    Erdogan is in DC next week to explicitly tell Trump they will take Raqqa and if that fails Turkish media is indicating they will cross in force and all bets are off then....

    So sometimes a cannonade is what is needed to get some people to "see and uinderstand "....

    PARET of the massive US failure in Iraq was never really seen by many commenters here......

    Saddam was on his last legs anyway and some very astute commenters made that point in 20033....the Iraqi ISI was constantly putting down small revolts up through and including shortly before the US invaded...from both Shia and Sunni elements...

    There is an interesting political theory that says if the uprising comes from within and it is successful then the self pride generated by the "locals doing the job" tends to carry over and the revolt is in the end successful...

    BUT when an outside foreign power especially in the ME does the job for the locals...there is no "self pride" and the intervention ends eventually in failure....

    Because the "perception" is and in the ME it is all about "perception" we the locals were simply too dumb/stupid to do it ourselves and we needed a foreign power to tell us what to do....and there is no "pride in their achievements"....

    REMEMBER this when looking at Syria....had the US simply provided the FSA with the means and tools to throw out Assad and them remained back and lent support after Assad was thrown out...we truly would not be where we are today...

    BUT REMEMBER what the Obama WH "smokescreen" was and it was a "smokescreen" meant to pr4ovide him the reasoning to do nothing....

    "We are still trying to find out who the "moderates" are and who we can "vet".....then the next mantra..."we need to seriously vet the moderates to make sure TOWs do not fall into the hands of IS/AQ".....and oh surprise surprise none have ever been transferred to IS/AQ.

    Both have been seriously proven to be true "smokescreens".....

    WHAT Obama and now Trump do not realize is that IS/AQ are Sunni based...and it must be Sunni's that end the problem not US supported Kurdish PKK....

    That is the reasoning behind what Turkey is saying about they taking Raqqa as well as blocking PKK from controlling the entire Turkish border zone.

    It is just great that Mattis publicly states the US will defend Turkey BUT you should realize Erdogan fully understands that is a farce of a statement unless it comes straight from Trump's own mouth....

    ACTUALLY in the 40 years of PKK attacking Turkey that is in fact what the US has always stated...and still the PKK is not under control is it??

    Now you can cut and paste all you want to with this..but it will not disprove what we are seeing right now on the ground in northern Syria....and it will not coverup the current Trump ME FP failure...as well as the total Obama failures....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-12-2017 at 06:14 AM.

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