Russo-Ukraine War 2017-2018

[OUTLAW 09]

Donbas: 67 attacks un UAF positions y/day, heavy artillery applied at #Pavlopyl, #Novohryhorivka, #Novotoshkivske. 2 soldiers KIA, 4 WIA.

[OUTLAW 09]

"The war, which we have forgotten. In the trenches of Donbas"
Der Spiegel, in German, but no need translation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VnoZQlC2jA …

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING Another ex-Berkut, commander of Kiev unit, that violently dispersed Maidan, spotted among Russian OMON on June 12th.
https://twitter.com/aavst/status/874538486153588736#

[OUTLAW 09]

Still no clear purposes of these attacks, but nothing similar since the start of war. Strategic importance - Volnovakha

Railway to Mariupol? Via Volnovakha, via Ol'hinka - from occupied Donetsk

[Azor]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/moscow...sias-cossacks/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 74
By: Paul Goble

Selected Excerpts:

With the encouragement of the Moscow media, many in Russia and the West assume that Russian Cossacks are entirely behind Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, that they are the group the Kremlin can count on as its janissaries against any opponent, and that there is no possibility that Cossacks could ever line up with Ukraine against Russia. But such assumptions are entirely wrong: Putin’s Ukraine adventure has split Russia’s Cossacks perhaps more deeply than any other indigenous people in Russia. Some, indeed, are prepared to fight for Russia in Ukraine, but many others are equally prepared to fight for Ukraine and against Moscow...

Consequently, and seemingly unexpectedly, Putin’s war in Ukraine may come home to haunt him and his regime via the Cossacks, a group the Kremlin leader does not acknowledge as a nation and assumes will be invariably loyal to him.

[OUTLAW 09]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/moscow...sias-cossacks/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 74
By: Paul Goble

Selected Excerpts:

Actually quite true...UAF has three Cossack BNs who have been on the frontlines for going on two full years...AND it was Cossacks with Spetsnaz troops that captured Debaltseve

[OUTLAW 09]

1 Ukrainian serviceman KIA, 5 WIA amid nearly 60 enemy attacks over the past day.

[Azor]

Actually quite true...UAF has three Cossack BNs who have been on the frontlines for going on two full years...AND it was Cossacks with Spetsnaz troops that captured Debaltseve

You'll notice that the Donbas War has also heightened Chechen divisions, between the Kadyrovtsi fighting with the (pro)Russians and the antagonist clans or factions fighting with the Ukrainians. This is a continuation of the violent struggle that took place in Chechnya and beyond as Kadyrov consolidated power and many of his opponents fled to Ukraine and elsewhere.

A recent New York Times article tries to depict the attempted assassination of a pro-Ukrainian Chechen couple in Kiev - of which the husband Osmayev had temporarily led the Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion in Donbas - as the work of Putin, coinciding with BuzzFeed's "Poison in the System" investigative report.

Yet both articles gloss over the context of the attempted and executed assassinations and over-simplify the dynamics of why Russian citizens are targeted abroad, who targets them and how the "wetwork" is carried out.

In the case of Osmayev and Okuyeva in Kiev, they were Chechens and their would-be assassin was also a Chechen. The Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion is not a formation of any significance, has not been for at least two years, and probably was more significant in 2014-2015 because it was "exotic". At the time of its frontline actions, the opposing (pro)Russian Chechen forces numbered a mere 300. Therefore, the attempted assassination of Osmayev and Okuyeva was almost certainly the work of Kadyrov rather than Putin, as their killing would have served no military or political purpose for the Kremlin.

To be sure, they were opponents of Putin in general, but specifically, they are of importance to Kadyrov.

What the mainstream Western media fails to understand is that Putin's mafia state excels at black covert actions, developing locals into auxiliaries and cobbling together criminals, intelligence officers and special forces operators of varying nationalities to cause havoc. However, Putin's emphasis on plausible deniability of direct Russian involvement makes command and control difficult. Whereas Crimea and Syria were/are "clean" and direct operations, the Donbas War is a mess, and one can never be sure whether the DPR/LPR are lobbing mortars because Putin is turning up the heat on Kiev, or because the DPR/LPR are trying to refocus Moscow's attention on their pressing need for money and materiel.

As for Kadyrov, he has free reign to play Ezhov in Grozny, and sometimes Moscow, so long as he keeps Chechnya "quiet" and within the Federation. Hitler ran a mafia state as well, which was evident when the SS, Abwehr and each military service branch were running their own operations, expropriating their own resources, competing with one another and answering to two separate HQs.

As the real story of Russian meddling in the U.S. election is concerned, we will probably discover that it was in fact an idea thought up by one of Putin's key lieutenants, and then thrown at the wall, rather than a deep, long-term, whole-of-government plot that was directed from the Kremlin's version of the Situation Room.

Another analogue may well be the CIA-led operations to overthrow and/or assassinate Castro, where anti-Castro Cubans were trained as both guerrillas and terrorists, and cobbled together with the Italian-American Mafia.

[Azor]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/lost-s...ly-using-hard/
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 78
By: Paul Goble

Introduction:

The aggressiveness Moscow has shown in its relations with countries in the former Soviet space reflects Russia’s loss of influence via “soft” power channels. At the same time, the Kremlin’s demonstrated bellicosity simply exacerbates that loss. Consequently, if President Vladimir Putin is going to rebuild Russia’s sway over the region, as he hopes, he will increasingly have to rely on “hard” power, including military and economic pressure. That—more than any of his personal preferences—explains Putin’s actions up to now, and it sets the stage for the further decomposition of the former Soviet space and for more violence as this process continues. And this trend will necessarily involve outside powers, ranging from China to the Middle Eastern states to the West.

Highlights:

• Moscow’s control over the post-Soviet space was predicated upon ethnic Russians and Russophones in neighboring states, but these have declined sharply
• Post-Soviet states are turning away from Moscow by seeking membership in NATO, the EU, SCO, etc.
• Russian aggression in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine has backfired e.g. in Ukraine, which is considering dispensing with the Cyrillic alphabet
• Russia is neither an attractive model or an economic center of gravity
• Moscow will have to rely upon force, and has reinforced its deployments to Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in addition to demanding basing rights in Belarus
• The Zapad 2017 exercises will be used to pressure Belarus to comply

[OUTLAW 09]

You'll notice that the Donbas War has also heightened Chechen divisions, between the Kadyrovtsi fighting with the (pro)Russians and the antagonist clans or factions fighting with the Ukrainians. This is a continuation of the violent struggle that took place in Chechnya and beyond as Kadyrov consolidated power and many of his opponents fled to Ukraine and elsewhere.

A recent New York Times article tries to depict the attempted assassination of a pro-Ukrainian Chechen couple in Kiev - of which the husband Osmayev had temporarily led the Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion in Donbas - as the work of Putin, coinciding with BuzzFeed's "Poison in the System" investigative report.

Yet both articles gloss over the context of the attempted and executed assassinations and over-simplify the dynamics of why Russian citizens are targeted abroad, who targets them and how the "wetwork" is carried out.

In the case of Osmayev and Okuyeva in Kiev, they were Chechens and their would-be assassin was also a Chechen. The Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion is not a formation of any significance, has not been for at least two years, and probably was more significant in 2014-2015 because it was "exotic". At the time of its frontline actions, the opposing (pro)Russian Chechen forces numbered a mere 300. Therefore, the attempted assassination of Osmayev and Okuyeva was almost certainly the work of Kadyrov rather than Putin, as their killing would have served no military or political purpose for the Kremlin.

To be sure, they were opponents of Putin in general, but specifically, they are of importance to Kadyrov.

What the mainstream Western media fails to understand is that Putin's mafia state excels at black covert actions, developing locals into auxiliaries and cobbling together criminals, intelligence officers and special forces operators of varying nationalities to cause havoc. However, Putin's emphasis on plausible deniability of direct Russian involvement makes command and control difficult. Whereas Crimea and Syria were/are "clean" and direct operations, the Donbas War is a mess, and one can never be sure whether the DPR/LPR are lobbing mortars because Putin is turning up the heat on Kiev, or because the DPR/LPR are trying to refocus Moscow's attention on their pressing need for money and materiel.

As for Kadyrov, he has free reign to play Ezhov in Grozny, and sometimes Moscow, so long as he keeps Chechnya "quiet" and within the Federation. Hitler ran a mafia state as well, which was evident when the SS, Abwehr and each military service branch were running their own operations, expropriating their own resources, competing with one another and answering to two separate HQs.

As the real story of Russian meddling in the U.S. election is concerned, we will probably discover that it was in fact an idea thought up by one of Putin's key lieutenants, and then thrown at the wall, rather than a deep, long-term, whole-of-government plot that was directed from the Kremlin's version of the Situation Room.

Another analogue may well be the CIA-led operations to overthrow and/or assassinate Castro, where anti-Castro Cubans were trained as both guerrillas and terrorists, and cobbled together with the Italian-American Mafia.

Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???

[OUTLAW 09]

We deny any responsibility for implementation of the Minsk Accords or resolving the conflict in #Ukraine.
http://tass.com/politics/951691

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine's intelligence claims that #Russia is unhappy with #Donetsk & #Luhansk breakaway entities' warlords:

https://www.unian.net/war/1979161-za...razvedka.html#

[Azor]

Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???

Your reply puzzles me.

I was referring very specifically to the discussion of the attempted assassination of the anti-Russian Chechen couple in Kiev by a Chechen assassin, and how it pertained to Russia's internal dynamics under Putin. I was not referring to Russian intelligence operations against the U.S., as there are other threads for that. Perhaps you are replying to another one of my posts?

I shall print off this particular remark of yours and tape it to the wall beside my monitor:

..European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

You have opened Pandora's Box with that one, mi amigo. As you are aware, I have often harped that contemporary electronic vulnerabilities for presidential election voting have existed since 2000, and that logic dictates that Russian preferences for president in both 2008 and 2012 would have been Obama.

Therefore, if Russian operations began in earnest prior to 2008, then we must question whether Russia supported "change we can believe in" and the anti-war/peace movement that emerged following the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Care to comment?

[Azor]

Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???

If you were known to the KGB and StaSi, and were being monitored, then how effectively could you have executed your tasks when the time came?

Correct me if I am wrong, but your unit was tasked with subversion and guerrilla warfare in general, and more specifically, to assassinate key Soviet and East German military and intelligence officers, as well as to wreak havoc behind enemy lines. If you were known to the enemy, they would obviously seek to eliminate you first, and of course, had their own SOF/intelligence teams in Western Europe with the same mission sets in mind.

You may also correct me if I say that the Soviets were not your priority. You were in West Berlin, and "unifying" the capital was the preserve of the NVA, not the Soviets. This is not to say that you wouldn't have jaunted over to Karlshorst or Zossen-Wuensdorf to pay your respects to the Ivans, time permitting, but your targets were unreconstructed militant Germans who had traded brown for red, no?

[OUTLAW 09]

If you were known to the KGB and StaSi, and were being monitored, then how effectively could you have executed your tasks when the time came?

Correct me if I am wrong, but your unit was tasked with subversion and guerrilla warfare in general, and more specifically, to assassinate key Soviet and East German military and intelligence officers, as well as to wreak havoc behind enemy lines. If you were known to the enemy, they would obviously seek to eliminate you first, and of course, had their own SOF/intelligence teams in Western Europe with the same mission sets in mind.

You may also correct me if I say that the Soviets were not your priority. You were in West Berlin, and "unifying" the capital was the preserve of the NVA, not the Soviets. This is not to say that you wouldn't have jaunted over to Karlshorst or Zossen-Wuensdorf to pay your respects to the Ivans, time permitting, but your targets were unreconstructed militant Germans who had traded brown for red, no?

You speak of my SF time in Berlin before 1971....there neither KGB nor Stasi knew of me....

BTW...the research into the Stasi archives on over 100K pages indicated that both KGB and MfS had no earthly idea about the unit other than it existed, strength was not known, nor wartime targets...the unit was stood down by US Army because it was felt that there could be no way that KGB and MfS did not know about the unit.....now with hindsight they knew absolutely nothing.....

I am talking about my time after 1971 and my connections to other organizations ie JAROC (B) and 766th MI, my being a student at the Freie Universitaet, my travels into the East Bloc as a whole and East Berlin in particular and my camping trips to Soviet Union....

When I was allowed to request a Stasi records check I was interested if the records would indicate who might have pointed me out to the MfS and KGB meaning via a Stasi IM agent in West Berlin....

The checks came back indicating two individuals out of my circle of close friends were identified as Stasi IM....and both had written reports on me ...both now in their late 70s...

And based on what happened I was informed I could if I wanted file charges for spying for the MfS and they would be charged and taken to court with a resulting sentence....

I approached the two with the records indicating that I was not going to press charges as for me at least the "war was over on the invisible front"....beside we burned the KGB badly and thus my personal "victory"...

Although both were in fact investigated and questioned by German security services about their past actions...but not charged based on my recommendations...

[OUTLAW 09]

Why Russia is changing ethnic composition of Crimea
https://www.unian.info/politics/1981...f-crimea.html#
…

Exactly what the Soviets did in the Baltics, in eastern Ukraine in the 30s, in Hungarian, and in Belarus.....

Then they can always argue "we are protecting Russian speakers".....

Here they are attempting to eliminate the homeland of the Tartars....

[Azor]

You speak of my SF time in Berlin before 1971....there neither KGB nor Stasi knew of me....

BTW...the research into the Stasi archives on over 100K pages indicated that both KGB and MfS had no earthly idea about the unit other than it existed, strength was not known, nor wartime targets...the unit was stood down by US Army because it was felt that there could be no way that KGB and MfS did not know about the unit.....now with hindsight they knew absolutely nothing...

But did the West know any more about Detachment A's opposite numbers? Moreover, it was easier for the Communists to form reconnaissance/sabotage groups in the open and free West, than vice versa.

I am talking about my time after 1971 and my connections to other organizations ie JAROC (B) and 766th MI, my being a student at the Freie Universitaet, my travels into the East Bloc as a whole and East Berlin in particular and my camping trips to Soviet Union....

When I was allowed to request a Stasi records check I was interested if the records would indicate who might have pointed me out to the MfS and KGB meaning via a Stasi IM agent in West Berlin....

The checks came back indicating two individuals out of my circle of close friends were identified as Stasi IM....and both had written reports on me ...both now in their late 70s...

And based on what happened I was informed I could if I wanted file charges for spying for the MfS and they would be charged and taken to court with a resulting sentence...

Yes, it seems as though the 766th had its hands full with the East Germans and Hungarians. What made you prefer to "invisible war" to the visible one? Intellectual stimulation?

I always thought that homicide and CI investigators deep down enjoyed the thrill of the chase, as much as their quarry enjoyed evading consequences.

I approached the two with the records indicating that I was not going to press charges as for me at least the "war was over on the invisible front"....beside we burned the KGB badly and thus my personal "victory"...

Although both were in fact investigated and questioned by German security services about their past actions...but not charged based on my recommendations...

Interesting. How was the KGB "burned badly", exactly? Fed disinformation? Networks blown? Agents arrested? Tricked into executing their own framed officers?

I think we can both agree that the Russians have outstanding HUMINT skills and experience, and have been able to turn people without a great deal of money or ideological indoctrination.

I sincerely believe that Snowden, Assange and Winner were turned by Russian intelligence, and that the U.S. IC continues to focus upon non-HUMINT, given its technological superiority and comfort level.

[OUTLAW 09]

Trenches, tanks, artillery & snipers. My latest podcast episode: 8 days on the front lines of the war in Ukraine

https://soundcloud.com/user-78907277...ar-in-ukraine#

[OUTLAW 09]

But did the West know any more about Detachment A's opposite numbers? Moreover, it was easier for the Communists to form reconnaissance/sabotage groups in the open and free West, than vice versa.



Yes, it seems as though the 766th had its hands full with the East Germans and Hungarians. What made you prefer to "invisible war" to the visible one? Intellectual stimulation?

I always thought that homicide and CI investigators deep down enjoyed the thrill of the chase, as much as their quarry enjoyed evading consequences.



Interesting. How was the KGB "burned badly", exactly? Fed disinformation? Networks blown? Agents arrested? Tricked into executing their own framed officers?

I think we can both agree that the Russians have outstanding HUMINT skills and experience, and have been able to turn people without a great deal of money or ideological indoctrination.

I sincerely believe that Snowden, Assange and Winner were turned by Russian intelligence, and that the U.S. IC continues to focus upon non-HUMINT, given its technological superiority and comfort level.

Yes we knew far more than many think about the then Soviet, Polish and GDR versions of the later day Spetsnaz...

You missed the Poles and Czechs.....

The problem is the US after the Wall fell HUMINT did not matter...as all shifted to the tech side...heck even the military language training in German and Russian was stopped.....

BTW......it is always about money with the exception of Winner...remember you are dealing with Americans.

Every American Russian spy in the last 30 years was in it for money..EVEN Pollock...I know of not a single one that did it out of ideology reasons.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine reports 5 WIA amid 66 enemy attacks from Russia's troops in Donbas over the last day.

Previous days attack level was 71 with 2KIA and 4WIA...

Whether Trump and his WH NSC want to admit it or not..there is an ongoing Russian ground offensive underway in eastern Ukraine......typical summer offensive based on attack doctrine....