Russo-Ukraine War 2017-2018

[OUTLAW 09]

"The war, which we have forgotten. In the trenches of Donbas"
Der Spiegel, in German, but no need translation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VnoZQlC2jA …

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING Another ex-Berkut, commander of Kiev unit, that violently dispersed Maidan, spotted among Russian OMON on June 12th.
https://twitter.com/aavst/status/874538486153588736#

[OUTLAW 09]

Still no clear purposes of these attacks, but nothing similar since the start of war. Strategic importance - Volnovakha

Railway to Mariupol? Via Volnovakha, via Ol'hinka - from occupied Donetsk

[Azor]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/moscow...sias-cossacks/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 74
By: Paul Goble

Selected Excerpts:

With the encouragement of the Moscow media, many in Russia and the West assume that Russian Cossacks are entirely behind Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, that they are the group the Kremlin can count on as its janissaries against any opponent, and that there is no possibility that Cossacks could ever line up with Ukraine against Russia. But such assumptions are entirely wrong: Putin’s Ukraine adventure has split Russia’s Cossacks perhaps more deeply than any other indigenous people in Russia. Some, indeed, are prepared to fight for Russia in Ukraine, but many others are equally prepared to fight for Ukraine and against Moscow...

Consequently, and seemingly unexpectedly, Putin’s war in Ukraine may come home to haunt him and his regime via the Cossacks, a group the Kremlin leader does not acknowledge as a nation and assumes will be invariably loyal to him.

[OUTLAW 09]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/moscow...sias-cossacks/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 74
By: Paul Goble

Selected Excerpts:

Actually quite true...UAF has three Cossack BNs who have been on the frontlines for going on two full years...AND it was Cossacks with Spetsnaz troops that captured Debaltseve

[OUTLAW 09]

1 Ukrainian serviceman KIA, 5 WIA amid nearly 60 enemy attacks over the past day.

[Azor]

Actually quite true...UAF has three Cossack BNs who have been on the frontlines for going on two full years...AND it was Cossacks with Spetsnaz troops that captured Debaltseve

You'll notice that the Donbas War has also heightened Chechen divisions, between the Kadyrovtsi fighting with the (pro)Russians and the antagonist clans or factions fighting with the Ukrainians. This is a continuation of the violent struggle that took place in Chechnya and beyond as Kadyrov consolidated power and many of his opponents fled to Ukraine and elsewhere.

A recent New York Times article tries to depict the attempted assassination of a pro-Ukrainian Chechen couple in Kiev - of which the husband Osmayev had temporarily led the Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion in Donbas - as the work of Putin, coinciding with BuzzFeed's "Poison in the System" investigative report.

Yet both articles gloss over the context of the attempted and executed assassinations and over-simplify the dynamics of why Russian citizens are targeted abroad, who targets them and how the "wetwork" is carried out.

In the case of Osmayev and Okuyeva in Kiev, they were Chechens and their would-be assassin was also a Chechen. The Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion is not a formation of any significance, has not been for at least two years, and probably was more significant in 2014-2015 because it was "exotic". At the time of its frontline actions, the opposing (pro)Russian Chechen forces numbered a mere 300. Therefore, the attempted assassination of Osmayev and Okuyeva was almost certainly the work of Kadyrov rather than Putin, as their killing would have served no military or political purpose for the Kremlin.

To be sure, they were opponents of Putin in general, but specifically, they are of importance to Kadyrov.

What the mainstream Western media fails to understand is that Putin's mafia state excels at black covert actions, developing locals into auxiliaries and cobbling together criminals, intelligence officers and special forces operators of varying nationalities to cause havoc. However, Putin's emphasis on plausible deniability of direct Russian involvement makes command and control difficult. Whereas Crimea and Syria were/are "clean" and direct operations, the Donbas War is a mess, and one can never be sure whether the DPR/LPR are lobbing mortars because Putin is turning up the heat on Kiev, or because the DPR/LPR are trying to refocus Moscow's attention on their pressing need for money and materiel.

As for Kadyrov, he has free reign to play Ezhov in Grozny, and sometimes Moscow, so long as he keeps Chechnya "quiet" and within the Federation. Hitler ran a mafia state as well, which was evident when the SS, Abwehr and each military service branch were running their own operations, expropriating their own resources, competing with one another and answering to two separate HQs.

As the real story of Russian meddling in the U.S. election is concerned, we will probably discover that it was in fact an idea thought up by one of Putin's key lieutenants, and then thrown at the wall, rather than a deep, long-term, whole-of-government plot that was directed from the Kremlin's version of the Situation Room.

Another analogue may well be the CIA-led operations to overthrow and/or assassinate Castro, where anti-Castro Cubans were trained as both guerrillas and terrorists, and cobbled together with the Italian-American Mafia.

[Azor]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/lost-s...ly-using-hard/
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 78
By: Paul Goble

Introduction:

The aggressiveness Moscow has shown in its relations with countries in the former Soviet space reflects Russia’s loss of influence via “soft” power channels. At the same time, the Kremlin’s demonstrated bellicosity simply exacerbates that loss. Consequently, if President Vladimir Putin is going to rebuild Russia’s sway over the region, as he hopes, he will increasingly have to rely on “hard” power, including military and economic pressure. That—more than any of his personal preferences—explains Putin’s actions up to now, and it sets the stage for the further decomposition of the former Soviet space and for more violence as this process continues. And this trend will necessarily involve outside powers, ranging from China to the Middle Eastern states to the West.

Highlights:

• Moscow’s control over the post-Soviet space was predicated upon ethnic Russians and Russophones in neighboring states, but these have declined sharply
• Post-Soviet states are turning away from Moscow by seeking membership in NATO, the EU, SCO, etc.
• Russian aggression in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine has backfired e.g. in Ukraine, which is considering dispensing with the Cyrillic alphabet
• Russia is neither an attractive model or an economic center of gravity
• Moscow will have to rely upon force, and has reinforced its deployments to Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in addition to demanding basing rights in Belarus
• The Zapad 2017 exercises will be used to pressure Belarus to comply

[OUTLAW 09]

You'll notice that the Donbas War has also heightened Chechen divisions, between the Kadyrovtsi fighting with the (pro)Russians and the antagonist clans or factions fighting with the Ukrainians. This is a continuation of the violent struggle that took place in Chechnya and beyond as Kadyrov consolidated power and many of his opponents fled to Ukraine and elsewhere.

A recent New York Times article tries to depict the attempted assassination of a pro-Ukrainian Chechen couple in Kiev - of which the husband Osmayev had temporarily led the Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion in Donbas - as the work of Putin, coinciding with BuzzFeed's "Poison in the System" investigative report.

Yet both articles gloss over the context of the attempted and executed assassinations and over-simplify the dynamics of why Russian citizens are targeted abroad, who targets them and how the "wetwork" is carried out.

In the case of Osmayev and Okuyeva in Kiev, they were Chechens and their would-be assassin was also a Chechen. The Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion is not a formation of any significance, has not been for at least two years, and probably was more significant in 2014-2015 because it was "exotic". At the time of its frontline actions, the opposing (pro)Russian Chechen forces numbered a mere 300. Therefore, the attempted assassination of Osmayev and Okuyeva was almost certainly the work of Kadyrov rather than Putin, as their killing would have served no military or political purpose for the Kremlin.

To be sure, they were opponents of Putin in general, but specifically, they are of importance to Kadyrov.

What the mainstream Western media fails to understand is that Putin's mafia state excels at black covert actions, developing locals into auxiliaries and cobbling together criminals, intelligence officers and special forces operators of varying nationalities to cause havoc. However, Putin's emphasis on plausible deniability of direct Russian involvement makes command and control difficult. Whereas Crimea and Syria were/are "clean" and direct operations, the Donbas War is a mess, and one can never be sure whether the DPR/LPR are lobbing mortars because Putin is turning up the heat on Kiev, or because the DPR/LPR are trying to refocus Moscow's attention on their pressing need for money and materiel.

As for Kadyrov, he has free reign to play Ezhov in Grozny, and sometimes Moscow, so long as he keeps Chechnya "quiet" and within the Federation. Hitler ran a mafia state as well, which was evident when the SS, Abwehr and each military service branch were running their own operations, expropriating their own resources, competing with one another and answering to two separate HQs.

As the real story of Russian meddling in the U.S. election is concerned, we will probably discover that it was in fact an idea thought up by one of Putin's key lieutenants, and then thrown at the wall, rather than a deep, long-term, whole-of-government plot that was directed from the Kremlin's version of the Situation Room.

Another analogue may well be the CIA-led operations to overthrow and/or assassinate Castro, where anti-Castro Cubans were trained as both guerrillas and terrorists, and cobbled together with the Italian-American Mafia.

Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???