Decision Making and Planning

[Martin]

This document considers the OODA cycle in planning, and provides a tool for digesting situations stretching in time and complexity. A few potential uses are exemplified, but it can easily be used in even more interesting manners.

I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts. Useful? Criticism? Stating the obvious? What more do you think is needed?

I started writing this yesterday and do not consider myself an expert, so take it with a grain of salt.

Decision Making and Planning in PDF.

[max161]

Can you provide the source of the document you provided the link to?

Thanks

[Martin]

I wrote it. My full name is in the top right corner of the text. It is hosted on my cousin's server. I developed the proposed methodology and mention sources in the text for providing a frame of reference for perceiving and understanding it. It is an attempt at merging the 4GW and EBO discussions by putting decision making in the context of planning.

It is not an all-ends solution and certainly has to be tempered by each person's experience and needs. It is a big bite for my small mouth, why I hope that your comments will improve it. I have identified a few places where style could be changed and where clarification would benefit, but all frank criticism is welcome.

It is based on my studies and personal experience (in particular in regards to people). I am young and do not have experience with war. I think the planning framework holds true for most (all?) activities and is not restricted to war. Personal studies are in regards to conflict and various sciences. School studies are economics and languages. Work history includes programming.

HTH

[nichols]

Martin,

Good article

I'm going to be rambling...so stand by for heavy rolls as the ship turns about...

I think you should have recognitional decision making included in the paper, without it, getting inside the target's OODA usually leads to reactive vice proactive decision making.

We have been using simulations to build experiences in support of the Marine Corps Planning Process which is heavily involved analytical decision making. Ultimately by building up experiences the Marines have additional recognition 'files' in thier memories to access which ultimately provide a faster decision making cycle.

Something that also has effect is a clear Commander's Intent for the operational abilities of the unit. Without a clear end state on the strategic level, often you will find fast OODAs that don't support the strategic end state. This ulitmately leads to bogging down the unit OODAs to the point that they are reactive to the adversary's actions.

[bismark17]

Anything that mentions Bruce Siddle's book has to be good. I will get some comments back to you.

[Martin]

nichols,

I haven't read much on OODA except Boyd's lectures and Howe's and Hammond's books. Do you have a source where I can read up on recognitional decision making? The intent of the article is to foster a proactive planning process, so maybe I'm missing something when I only briefly mentioned what I think you're saying. There are a lot of ideas skipped over, for example you may want to plan for future circumstances that the adversary will bring about, or you could bring up perspectives, deception, or paradigmatic evolution. It's really quite adaptable.

Recognitional decision making does sound very similar to what is expressed in Siddle's and Howe's books. Basically, with experience, you will see the enemy's position and perceive his possible tactics upon which you can retrieve from memory your own aggressive tactics to take the initiative. Is that what you meant?

Good point on commander's intent. I think the top-down approach and briefness caused the miss. I wanted an introduction to the concept, and it's the first time I write this kind of thing. Actually, the follow-on to commander's intent would be to consider how to design multi level plans and strategic maneuverability. I think it can fairly easily be adapted already as it is written today. The thought crossed my mind, but I didn't want to break anything expensive since most of the case studies I would have to use would either be imaginary (and thus not as credible) or real, active and looking to the future. I have studied history and could provide cursory overviews from a multitude of wars, but not the kind of in depth analysis that would prove it really useful. And that is a somewhat bigger project than two days... MUCH bigger risk of stepping on my crank.

Still, I will consider how to bring in commander's intent and heavier emphasis on proactive decision making. It may take a week due to school studies, etc.

bismarck17: Got it on the good advice of experienced people.

Thanks a lot for the responses! Keep 'em comin'...

[slapout9]

Martin, here is a link to the Air War College section on decision making.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/...decisionmaking

As you will see there is a lot of information here related to your subject, sure you can find something you can use here.

Also here is a great paper you may like about Targeting. Sort of goes with what you are trying to do,at least I think it does. Good Luck http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/a...szafranski.htm

[Martin]

On the other hand, I think Commander's intent is a bit what remains unsaid.

If you look at the cycle, what Commander's intent implies is that the starting point or objectives are modified or set in some way and the circumstances you want to bring about have to fit within them. This is also mentioned in the third point of the filtering process, "Are there secondary or tertiary effects that are contra productive to the end state?"

Doing different plans for different levels is thus a matter of cycling the loop, similar to in the temporal aspect mentioned. Of course, there are more considerations that have to be taken into account when making a real plan, but as a concept that is what happens.

You are right that it could have been written out more clearly and expanded.