Brazil: violence in (merged thread)

[flagg]

I have generally been a fan of Kilcullen's books and articles, although I found this particular book not as well thought out as his previous books. Perhaps because he is still exploring this concept. To be fair Ralph Peters, and many others, did meet him to the punch on this issue, and I recall a number of discussions and papers in the 1990s discussing potential military scenarios in large urban areas and how complex they would be.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...-and-dangerous

Peters' wrote in 1996:

Peters made a lot of interesting points regarding the future of urban warfare in a talk I attended in 2001 (before 9/11), but most of the points focused on the physical aspects of fighting in a city and the difficulty of templating irregulars. Kilcullen adds the socio-political aspects and I found his thoughts on the city as an ecosystem (system of systems) and how competitive control works very helpful in observing and explaining what many of us have experienced and simply labeled it as chaos, yet there was an underlying order that wasn't necessarily visible to us at the time.

On the other hand his book in my opinion is still is missing the so what factor for security planners. He is also focused currently on data analysis to analyze cities which may prove to be valuable, but similar studies in the past have generally led us astray. Ralph Peters on the other hand glances over the socio-political and focuses on the so what at the tactical and doctrine level. Curious about readers' thoughts on his projections made in 1996 as a Major now that we have extensive experience fighting in cities (though done would qualify as a megacity the principles still apply). regardless there is considerable room for further study in this area to inform military doctrine and future capabilities required.

How, or even if, Brazil can secure the games will be interesting to see unfold. We could be overstating the threat by assuming the masses will think and act collectively and actually have an interest in attacking the games. I'm sure some do, but what percentage? Is it enough to be threatening? How good is Brazil's intelligence in identifying the leaders who could provoke a serious security threat? What is their ability to pre-empt it? Will they leverage engineers to create obstacles and channelize potential protesters / trouble makers into zones they can control? What will the impact be if the disenfranchised citizens effectively disrupt (or worse) the games?

Any thoughts on human/social networks developing like an insect life cycle?

When I think of the possibilities of networks in the favelas disrupting(for benefit like conflict entrepreneurs exploiting opportunities) FIFA World Cup and the Olympics, I can't help but recall Air France's pilots union back in 1998 during the French World Cup:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/fa...f-1162409.html

I'm thinking what/how can the favela(and Brazil's notorious prison based) networks influence/disrupt logistics essential to FIFA and Olympic events.

And how much does the sophistication of the network and leadership decision making impact on it?

I think I hear what you're your saying both in terms of modern western networks aren't worth emulating in every respect(sometimes far from it) as well as how sometimes guys who live in caves are playing a pretty good game of chess, while folks flying first class are playing a lousy game of checkers.

[davidbfpo]

Not being interested in football I had missed the first game is due to be played in six days in Sao Paulo. So a mass transit strike is not unexpected and the almost inevitable confrontation with the police:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...up-opener.html A better report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27745401

This week the BBC have shown documentaries on Rio from different angles. One focussed on the sex trade, especially under-age boys and girls. Another on Rio, mostly filmed in one favela, from both sides - the public represented by a former gang leader turned community worker - and the state in the form of the military police. Neither readily found on the BBC website alas.

[davidbfpo]

A new Governor for the province and a new policy:

If those in charge succeed, the controversial top-down term "pacification" may soon fall into disuse. Instead, police have announced that they are reaching out to civil society to help them do a better, less violent job of keeping Rio safe.

Link:http://www.insightcrime.org/news-ana...licing-at-last

[davidbfpo]

The nine post thread 'Out of the mountains into the slums?' has been merged into the longer running Brazil: violence in (merged thread) today.

[davidbfpo]

A short article, it starts with:

Outbreaks of violence in one of Rio de Janeiro's major favelas are raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of Brazil's controversial pacification program, even as plans to expand the program continue.

Link:http://www.insightcrime.org/news-bri...cation-program