Zimbabwe: after Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

Dr. Tendi is a Zimbabwean academic @ Oxford University and he spoke this week at a public event following a month in Zimbabwe collecting information on what happened. His uni bio:http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/miles-tendi

Earlier he had written:

Tendi asserts that Mugabe has maintained civilian control over the military through shared ideology, patronage, and the formal and informal power he gets from his position as commander-in-chief and being the most senior remaining figure from Zimbabwe's nationalist liberation struggle.

Link:http://allafrica.com/stories/201708120054.html

Some key points follow (the footnotes and more are on the attachment):

The acting head of CIO (national intelligence agency) Aaron Nhepera after an episode approved of the coup. This episode was when initially he attempted to move against the coup and called the Air Force commander, Perence Shiri[1], who was in Dubai. Who then forwarded this information to General Chiwenga in Harare, who could then respond. The CIO’s head’s decision to ask Phiri was a surprise as he was a personal rival of Phiri, including having a role in a 2008 attempt to kill him and an investigation traced the principal in the plot was General Chiwenga .

The Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) commander, Commissioner Chihuri, was against the coup and had a paramilitary formation, the Support Unit (SU) available at two barracks near Harare. The Army surrounded the SU at Chikurubi[2] Barracks (there were reports of gunfire at the time before the SU stopped[3]) and the second SU unit at Inkomo Barracks was intercepted on route to Harare[4].

The most amazing part of the talk was that during the crisis an attempt was made within State House, presumably with Robert Mugabe’s consent, to prepare a force of mercenaries outside Zimbabwe to intervene[1]. All the telephone calls and discussions were overheard, as the house was bugged. The information was circulated within the Army leadership, thereby gaining support for the coup. Alongside a warning to the Mugabe family that in the event of mercenaries arriving they would be “taken out” (Robert Mugabe and his wife remained throughout the crisis at State House, presumably their two sons were there too).

· ‘Three hundred soldiers did the coup, half from the Presidential Guard (who wear distinctive yellow berets) and one other Army unit. The ZNA is forty thousand strong’.

[davidbfpo]

Blessing-Miles Tendi (Oxford University) has a comment on the election result and the violence that followed in Harare. He ends with:

Zimbabwe’s election has divided its people, and this is not conducive to democracy. Zanu-PF’s two-thirds majority renders parliament – a cornerstone of any functional democracy – weak in relation to a president with disputed legitimacy. And Zimbabwe’s deep state – the military – will linger on, influentially, in the political background. Despite all the joy and the hope following Mugabe’s overthrow, in the aftermath of this election, Zimbabweans’ democratic dreams appear as distant as ever.

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/03/zimbabwe-election-result-disputed-army

Watching the limited footage it is very unclear why the Army had to be deployed, let alone why six people were shot dead. So much for an apolitical army that was promised a few months ago.

Professor Stephen Chan adds:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe...on-era-101045?

There has been some coverage here, although none covered what was happening in the rural areas. The linked BBC report has the figures:

Figures released by the electoral commission say Mr Mnangagwa and his Zanu-PF party won 50.4% of the presidential vote - ensuring by only 36,464 ballots that there did not have to be a run-off.
Chamisa tallied 44.3% of the almost five million votes cast, with the 21 other candidates taking up the remainder.
Results of the parliamentary election gave Zanu-PF 144 seats; the MDC Alliance, which is made up of seven parties, 64 seats...

Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-45064231

[davidbfpo]

An article by an opposition MDC member on what the elections meant. Short of time? The Army rules and makes money.

Or this one sentence:

It is a tragic myth that Zimbabwe can possibly be better in the hands of this small group of men who have wrought so much harm to Zimbabwe over 38 years.

Link:https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...will-continue/

[davidbfpo]

Professor Stephen Chan, SOAS London, has a commentary on the lack of change after the elections; alas not really a surprise. I noted this passage, which may explain why:

Although the Americans have lowered the tone of their criticisms of the government, the softly-softly approach cannot hide the strict conditionality they seek. This resides in guarantees of future electoral conduct, but also essentially the desecuritisation of the ZANU-PF machine. In a word, the problem is Constantino Chiwenga, the former defence forces chief, now vice-president, who has a strong influence within the military – but, no matter what the Americans want, he is going nowhere fast, and he will not sacrifice his deep influence within the military.

Link:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe...hoices-104279?

So the "robber barons" in ZANU-PF continue to feast and the people.....

[davidbfpo]

Found on YouTube and it is 21 minutes long. It is produced by a critic of the ZANU-PF regime. The summary:

A short documentary about the deadly aftermath of Zimbabwe's 2018 election. This preliminary video is the result of numerous interviews with the wounded, witnesses and reviewing of hours of amateur and professional video footage and photographs. Due to the time frame of the Commission, this preparatory version has been prepared for submission to the Mothlante Commission. This is part of a long documentary, which will include analysis of the work of the commission and witness testimonies.

Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elEUbcQ0fW8

The Army maintains it did not fire except in the air and the footage shown contradicts that. Whether the 'international commission' will provide any answer is a very moot point.

[davidbfpo]

In my last post I commented:

The Army maintains it did not fire except in the air and the footage shown contradicts that. Whether the 'international commission' will provide any answer is a very moot point.

Thanks to a Zimbabwe email I discovered the commission has reported:

the police and army were found responsible for the deaths and injuries sustained from the clashes between citizens and members of the security forces. “The death of these six people and injuries sustained by the 35-others, rose from the actions of the military and the police,” President Mnangagwa said, quoting the report.
(On the Army) “The use of live ammunition directed at people, especially when they were fleeing was clearly unjustified, and disproportionate,” the report noted. “The use of sharp shambokos, baton sticks and rifle butts to assault members of the public, indiscriminately was also disproportionate.”

Link:https://www.voazimbabwe.com/a/commis...e/4706411.html

For those who want to read the entire report (128 pgs.) it is here:http://manicapost.co.zw/wp-content/u...of-Inquiry.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Two articles id'd by a "lurker" familiar with Zimbabwe and both written in Zimbabwe.

The first is by a journalist who had hope in the new President and his team. He starts with:

Robert Mugabe was really bad because he didn’t listen to anyone unless under personal duress, and because of that terrible trait in him, it led to his spectacular and embarrassing undoing with the culmination of a military coup that was supported by the citizens and the rest of the world sealing his ungraceful demise.

Link:http://https://nehandaradio.com/2019...ream-deferred/

The second is by an economist and reveals the key divide is between the rural and urban population. Needless to say it is urban disorder that has been "cracked down" upon. Here is a key passage:

This year tobacco production was the highest it has ever been and some rural areas are booming. This is not the case in town, and urban youth, many of whom have no longer any connection to rural areas, have no access to land, having missed the opportunities of land reform in 2000.

Link:https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2...e-the-problem/

The BBC did have a report recently and the chart showing the price rises is a great help, if only for the cities (The BBC has not reported as per the previous quote).
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46986151