Syria in 2018-2019

[AdamG]

U.S. forces killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria last week in what may be the deadliest clash between citizens of the former foes since the Cold War, according to one U.S. official and three Russians familiar with the matter.
More than 200 contract soldiers, mostly Russians fighting on behalf of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, died in a failed attack on a base held by U.S. and mainly Kurdish forces in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor region, two of the Russians said. The U.S. official put the death toll in the fighting at about 100, with 200 to 300 injured, but was unable to say how many were Russians.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...hters-in-syria

There are a ton of googlehits for Maskirovka, but this is a decent starting point. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b050674y

See also http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...551#post210551

See also http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...550#post210550

[davidbfpo]

The title is taken from the sub-title of an article 'Miscalculation and vulnerability simmer beneath the surface of the Syrian conflict' and accurately sums the situation.
Link:https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/c...flict-1.704463

[CrowBat]

People used to think, assess and talk in hyperboles, thinking, assessing and talking in hyperboles, little else...

IMHO, this is the most-sane assessment I've seen so far, and then from one of most authoritative sources in this regards:

U.S. Strikes and Russian PMC Casualties in Syria – Fact vs Fiction

Mind that the author - Michael Kofman - published a highly interesting 'dissection' of the Russian military strategy in Ukraine and Syria, early the last year.

To make things even more interesting, that one is strikingly similar to conclusions from discussions on the Russian strategy and tactics in Syria we've had on the ACIG.info forum back in late 2015 (requires registration to read): VKS (Russian Air Force) - Doctrine and Tactics.

[CrowBat]

The Keystone Cops in Moscow are on the best way to deliver their next pearl in Syria.

First a photo, and then two videos appeared in the Assadist social media, showing two Sukhoi T.50s about to land at Hmemmem AB, in Syria, yesterday.

Meanwhile, it's official: Interfax was granted permission to publish an official confirmation.

Now, please all quickly get yourself some popcorn and cola: this is going to be funny.

...erm, what do you mean with 'why'...?

Well, imagine trying to fly combat operations over an active combat zone in our days - and then in an aircraft that:

- has an inadequate and incomplete sensor suite;
- has an incomplete fire-control system;
- has an incomplete self-protection suite;
- has no integrated avionics suite that could be considered 'operational';
- that is powered by unreliable engines;
- that has got no air-to-air weaponry at all (the T.50 didn't undergo any kind of integration of live weapons trials with about 160 R-77s acquired by the VKS since early 2017, while R-74 is still not in series production);
- has underwent hardly any weapons separation testing (except for two types of dumb bombs),
- actually lacks any kind of operational armament bar its internal 30mm cannon; etc...

Ah yes: and then try doing your job as a pilot of such a 'stealth fighter' - in an air force with no doctrine for operations of stealth aircraft.

*************

Wait: thinking of it... should one get shot down in Syria, the Keystone Cops in Moscow can for once speak truth and say, 'it was an unarmed aircraft on an observation mission'... (which is what they said after their Su-25 was shot down).

*************

Tragically, the future target list for T.50s in Syria has already been determined. All provided one of them can find its way to Eastern Ghouta, of course:

- Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF): The shelling of Gouta destroyed 13 hospitals and a WHO clinic in three days.

Actual number is at around 22.

**************

Of course, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have officially denied any kind of VKS' involvement in bombardment of Eastern Ghouta. Because of that denial, I'm now in position to present you a true sensation: an officially-confirmed Fatamorgana (a Su-34 about to strike some place in Eastern Ghouta, two days ago):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aetDL6jRdM

[AdamG]

Russia tries to pass video game off as footage of Syria, again. This time not the defense ministry but state TV.
https://twitter.com/TheBrandonMorse/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

[davidbfpo]

Professor Daniel Byman has a good overview and ends with:

Syria was not Iraq, Iraq was not Afghanistan, and the next conflict involving global terrorist groups will be a different one entirely. But if the United States can learn the above lessons, it might do better the next time around—or at least avoid doing far worse.

Link:https://lawfareblog.com/six-countert...rian-civil-war

[CrowBat]

The USA? Perhaps.

The Pentagon - not.

And the Pentagon is meanwhile running the US foreign politics in the Middle East.

Their newest achievement is something people were warning about already a year ago: a group called Popular Resistance of Raqqa was formed in #Raqqa, their goal is to defeat YPG/SDF. It's mainly made of Sunni Arab tribes.

Means: the Pentagon has finally provoked another war in the Middle East - and then another Sunni insurgency, too - and that while supporting a Marxist group considered a 'terrorist organisation' even by US laws.