Syria in 2018-2019

[CrowBat]

People used to think, assess and talk in hyperboles, thinking, assessing and talking in hyperboles, little else...

IMHO, this is the most-sane assessment I've seen so far, and then from one of most authoritative sources in this regards:

U.S. Strikes and Russian PMC Casualties in Syria – Fact vs Fiction

Mind that the author - Michael Kofman - published a highly interesting 'dissection' of the Russian military strategy in Ukraine and Syria, early the last year.

To make things even more interesting, that one is strikingly similar to conclusions from discussions on the Russian strategy and tactics in Syria we've had on the ACIG.info forum back in late 2015 (requires registration to read): VKS (Russian Air Force) - Doctrine and Tactics.

[CrowBat]

The Keystone Cops in Moscow are on the best way to deliver their next pearl in Syria.

First a photo, and then two videos appeared in the Assadist social media, showing two Sukhoi T.50s about to land at Hmemmem AB, in Syria, yesterday.

Meanwhile, it's official: Interfax was granted permission to publish an official confirmation.

Now, please all quickly get yourself some popcorn and cola: this is going to be funny.

...erm, what do you mean with 'why'...?

Well, imagine trying to fly combat operations over an active combat zone in our days - and then in an aircraft that:

- has an inadequate and incomplete sensor suite;
- has an incomplete fire-control system;
- has an incomplete self-protection suite;
- has no integrated avionics suite that could be considered 'operational';
- that is powered by unreliable engines;
- that has got no air-to-air weaponry at all (the T.50 didn't undergo any kind of integration of live weapons trials with about 160 R-77s acquired by the VKS since early 2017, while R-74 is still not in series production);
- has underwent hardly any weapons separation testing (except for two types of dumb bombs),
- actually lacks any kind of operational armament bar its internal 30mm cannon; etc...

Ah yes: and then try doing your job as a pilot of such a 'stealth fighter' - in an air force with no doctrine for operations of stealth aircraft.

*************

Wait: thinking of it... should one get shot down in Syria, the Keystone Cops in Moscow can for once speak truth and say, 'it was an unarmed aircraft on an observation mission'... (which is what they said after their Su-25 was shot down).

*************

Tragically, the future target list for T.50s in Syria has already been determined. All provided one of them can find its way to Eastern Ghouta, of course:

- Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF): The shelling of Gouta destroyed 13 hospitals and a WHO clinic in three days.

Actual number is at around 22.

**************

Of course, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have officially denied any kind of VKS' involvement in bombardment of Eastern Ghouta. Because of that denial, I'm now in position to present you a true sensation: an officially-confirmed Fatamorgana (a Su-34 about to strike some place in Eastern Ghouta, two days ago):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aetDL6jRdM

[AdamG]

Russia tries to pass video game off as footage of Syria, again. This time not the defense ministry but state TV.
https://twitter.com/TheBrandonMorse/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

[davidbfpo]

Professor Daniel Byman has a good overview and ends with:

Syria was not Iraq, Iraq was not Afghanistan, and the next conflict involving global terrorist groups will be a different one entirely. But if the United States can learn the above lessons, it might do better the next time around—or at least avoid doing far worse.

Link:https://lawfareblog.com/six-countert...rian-civil-war

[CrowBat]

The USA? Perhaps.

The Pentagon - not.

And the Pentagon is meanwhile running the US foreign politics in the Middle East.

Their newest achievement is something people were warning about already a year ago: a group called Popular Resistance of Raqqa was formed in #Raqqa, their goal is to defeat YPG/SDF. It's mainly made of Sunni Arab tribes.

Means: the Pentagon has finally provoked another war in the Middle East - and then another Sunni insurgency, too - and that while supporting a Marxist group considered a 'terrorist organisation' even by US laws.

[AdamG]

Exclusive satellite images from ImageSat International obtained by Fox News show what is believed to be the new Iranian base, eight miles northwest of Damascus, operated by the Quds Force — the special operations arm of Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The photos show two new white hangars, each roughly 30 yards by 20 yards, used to store short- and medium-range missiles.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/02...-in-syria.html

[CrowBat]

As if the Pentagon would care about IRGC's deployment in Syria: the Iranians meanwhile control at least 80,000 combatants - largely Shi'a jihadists and all other possible sectarian militias - there, but Trump and the Pentagon are still doing as if 15 Hezbollah advisors in Yemen are a bigger threat...

Talking about the logics of the 'US foreign politics' as run by the People in Need of Fresh Air (the Pentagon) in Syria, here slightly more in regards of the absurdity they've created.

Few days ago, a surprisingly frank critique of Western behaviour in regards of the PKK/PYD/YPG-supported conglomerate in the Afrin enclave was published - double surprise - in German language: Der Westen hat die Kurden NICHT verraten (or: The West didn't 'betray' the Kurds in Afrin).

By side that articles of this kind in German are more rare than snake's sweat: the author of that feature has nicelly illustrated how the PKK's (let's remain frank) alliance with the US and its ability conquer territory in NE Syria emboldened it into the break-down of negotiations with Erdogan.

Yes, sure, this is something not only the Pentagon but all the other talking-heads in the USA and elsewhere in the West are going to deny: after all, this is exactly the standpoint made by the Turkish media all the time - and since years already - but lost in idiotically simplistic publications about Erdogan unilaterally 'terminating peace talks'.

At least until now.

Namely, The Daily Beast now came out with a similar complaint - and indeed: a complement to the above-mentioned article in German.

Even more so: the article points out that such behaviour of the USA and the West have bolstered the Turkish paranoia against the West, and thus not only play directly into Erdogan's hands but is also helping bolster Erdogan's own aggrandizement.

Overall, the People in Need of Fresh air can really congratulate themselves: through their super-smart, visionary politics in Syria, they have literally, 'bought one, got three wars for free' in that country.

[CrowBat]

And, further in regards of this:

...
Their newest achievement is something people were warning about already a year ago: a group called Popular Resistance of Raqqa was formed in #Raqqa, their goal is to defeat YPG/SDF. It's mainly made of Sunni Arab tribes.

Means: the Pentagon has finally provoked another war in the Middle East - and then another Sunni insurgency, too - and that while supporting a Marxist group considered a 'terrorist organisation' even by US laws.

Sons of the city of Raqqa announce the formation of Syrian resistance against the American occupation

Now the Pentagon is getting an IRGC-supported (pay attention at the logo including an AK-47 held up by a hand), Assad-affiliated insurgency inside the area it put under the control of the PKK in Syria.

Isn't this simply fantastic...?

[davidbfpo]

What some describe as a 'mystery' and Der Spiegel journalists have been at work dissecting:

one of the most mysterious battles yet in this increasingly complex war.

Their report in English comes via a UK-based academic observer:http://eaworldview.com/2018/03/200-r...ria-maybe-not/