Syria in 2018-2019

[davidbfpo]

An Israeli think tank on the recent drone attacks on Russian military forces at the Hmeymim air base and the Tartus logistics center. With a few photos.
Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/...nuary-10-2018/

[CrowBat]

Ah well: while there is a general tendence in the USA to buy everything the Israelis claim (then 'Israelis know everything better, they are our friends, and they never lie...' ...cough, cough...), I would say it's at least 'worth considering' that there are alternative ideas in regards of culprits for such attacks.

One of these is that it's the IRGC that's staging such attacks.

Reason?

Provoking Russians, spoiling negotiations etc.

If so, these attacks were highly successful: the VKS is meanwhile back to bombing the crap out of insurgent-controlled Idlib.

[CrowBat]

Further to the topic Who Really Attacked Russia’s Air Base in Syria?:

...In 1989, Syrian helicopter gunships fired on a Soviet cruiser near the port city of Latakia, killing two sailors. The motive remains unclear to this day. David W. Lesch, an American historian of Syria who struck up a friendship with Bashar Al Assad, speculated in Foreign Policy magazine that Bashar’s father Hafez Al Assad may have approved the attack as a bloody message to Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev, who was warming up to the West and urging Assad to make peace with Israel.

Remember, this occurred when the Soviet Union and Syria were close, Cold War friends — or, perhaps, more like frenemies.

With Bashar unwilling to make any serious compromise in today’s Syria, following his series of Russian-backed battlefield victories across the country, this precedent may yet prove relevant — if not now, then in the months or years ahead as the interests between Moscow and Damascus diverge.

“Whatever the reason, that [1989] incident, now largely forgotten, revealed in dramatic fashion the complexity of the relationship between Syria and Russia over the decades,” Lesch wrote.

[davidbfpo]

From my armchair a good explanation of what is the situation in Afrin, NW Syria; an area controlled by the Kurdish YPG, but cut off from the main YPG enclave along the Turkish border.

Link:http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...hy-it-matters?

The map is from the BBC's report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42759944

[davidbfpo]

Another backgrounder on the Afrin pocket by a SME via the BBC and rather brutally ends with:

Whatever the future holds for Afrin, one side's dream is likely to be the other's nightmare.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42788179

[CrowBat]

From my armchair a good explanation of what is the situation in Afrin, NW Syria; an area controlled by the Kurdish YPG, but cut off from the main YPG enclave along the Turkish border.

It's the largest area clearly controlled by the PKK.

Of course, the latter is appearing under the 'PYD/YPG' banner...

The Turkish military operation against the Efrin enclave was a matter of time; really expected 'since years'. There was never any kind of a doubt that Turkey would attack: question was only when, and under what circumstances.

As a reminder: the PKK/PYD/YPG-conglomerate is dominated by the PKK, an organisation considered ‘terrorist’ by all of the NATO, by the USA, and at war with Turkey since more than 30 years. The PKK/PYD/YPG-conglomerate continues to consider Turkey as its primary enemy. Regardless of the nature and politics of its government, as a nation-state, Turkey has a vital-interest in neutralising the PKK’s control over any areas along its borders.

Secondary reason for this operation seems to be the Turkish conclusion that the latest Russian and Iranian operations against Turkey-supported Syrian insurgents in northern Hama, Idlib and southern Aleppo provinces are violating earlier agreements between Ankara, Moscow and Tehran.

Finally, Turkey has another national security interest – which is to prevent the intake of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria. Because the latest Iranian and Russian offensives have created a movement of thousands of refugees in direction of the Turkish border, Ankara was forced to search for alternatives. Wrestling the control of the Efrin enclave from the PKK/PYD/YPG conglomerate would enable Turks to harbour additional refugees in that zone instead inside Turkey.

BTW, the propaganda machinery of the PKK/PYD/YPG conglomerate is already in tears. For example: the WP published the article ‘We’re trying to build democracy in Syria. So why is Turkey attacking us?’

While declared ‘pluralist’ and ‘tolerant’ by most of the Western media, the PKK/PYD/YPG-conglomerate not only never distanced from its violently authoritarian history, but is showing clear intentions to continue ruling parts of Syria under its control in the very same fashion. Contrary to the widespread practice of uncritical forwarding of the PKK/PYD propaganda by the international media, the group has shown no intention to establish anything like a pluralist, democratic system of rule in the areas it controls. On the contrary, it made itself responsible of widespread atrocities and violations of human rights, such war crimes like ethnic cleansing of the Arab population, intimidation and executions of other Syrian Kurdish leaders and their political parties, forceful recruitment and similar.

Foremost its online fans insist on terming the Kurdish militants controlling the Efrin enclave as ‘SDF’ – i.e. as a part of the US-run ‘Syrian Democratic Force’, acclaimed as ‘the most effective anti-IS force in Syria’. Even the Deutsche Welle claims ‘Turkey (is) attacking the most effective anti-IS force in Syria’.

The PKK/PYD/YPG militants controlling the Efrin enclave are no ‘SDF’: they have never received any kind of support from the Pentagon, nor were ever a part of the CENTCOM-controlled command structure of the SDF. Unsurprisingly, when directly challenged about this issue, the Pentagon clearly stated:

‘We don’t consider them as part of our Defeat ISIS operations, which is what we are doing there. We do not support them, we are not involved with them at all.’

And finally: no matter what they babble, neither the PKK, nor PYD or YPG are anything like 'representatives of all the Kurds'. I.e. Turkey is not 'attacking Kurds' in the Efrin enclave, but a terrorist organisation.

[davidbfpo]

A bleak, short overview of the Syrian war by Professor Scott Lucas, Birmingham University; who ends with:

The agenda for 2018 looks like more of the same. Bombing and shelling, including of civilians. Sieges, starvation, and deaths from treatable medical conditions. A Russian-backed disinformation campaign to smear medics and rescuers as puppets of both al-Qaeda and the US. Political gatherings which yield little more than platitudes. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Link:ttps://theconversation.com/syria-upd...-the-war-89947

[CrowBat]

The Turkish-Insurgent offensive on the Efrin enclave is bogged down in mud...

...while the People lacking fresh air (the Pentagon) and the Keystone Cops in Moscow (Russian MOD) are now at verbal odds with each other. Newest episode in this soap opera is one from the first group thinking he could brag as cited here:

...“The Russian ministry of defense statements are about as accurate as their air campaign [in Syria],” U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the American-led coalition fighting ISIS, said earlier in November 2017 after the Kremlin accused the United States of supporting the terrorists in Iraq and Syria. “I think that is a reason for them to start, you know, coming out with their latest barrage of lies.”
...

Problem is: the VKS' campaign in Syria might be incredibly inprecise (guess, it would be considered a total failure by the Pentagon), BUT: it is supported by more effective politics than the Pentagon could ever imagine.