Syria in 2018-2019

[CrowBat]

Careful cross-examination of reports from the social media is leading to few very interesting conclusions regarding that 'Battle of the Conoco Oilfield': CENTCOM bushwacked an Iranian force near Dayr az-Zawr.

[CrowBat]

As usually, the MSM reporting is slow, superficial, and concentrating on sensations ('Israeli F-16 shot down'). Thus, here a summary of what's said to be going on over south-western Syria since early this morning (local time):

Reportedly, the brawl started with the IRGC sending one of its UAVs from T-4 AB (aka Tiyas/Tifor) in central Syria into the Israeli air space, early this morning. The IDF claimed this as shot down by one of its AH-64 Apache helicopters.

'In retaliation' for this 'aggression', the Israelis then started launching air strikes.

The 1st wave included activity of Israeli aircraft over northern Lebanon and...hm... actually over Jordan (or at least 'along the Syrian-Jordanian border). It reportedly hit some kind of an 'observation tower' at T-4. I guess that should mean the control tower there. It is possible that other objects at that air base have been hit, too: lately, there were rumours about the IRIADF (regular Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defence Force) deploying one of its MIM-23B I-HAWK/Shahin SAM-sites there (the IRGC has its own air defences, but these are only operating such Soviet/Russian-made systems like SA-6s, SA-15s and SA-17s).

Apparently on the way back from that attack, an F-16I was shot down - perhaps by an Assadist SA-5. One of crewmembers of the F-16I should've been seriously injured (apparently on ejection).

The 2nd wave, launched about one hour later, has hit multiple targets NW of Damascus and N of Qunaitra, foremost in the area around (FSyA-controlled) Bayt Jinn pocket. Also hit were unknown objects in the Qisba area (Damascene suburb) and around Dera'a.

As usually, slow and superficial reporting from the MSM...

The Israeli air strikes on Assad/IRGC-controlled parts of Syria are going on. Currently, the third wave is underway.

Along what the official IDF spokesperson says, this is a large-scale SEAD/DEAD operation:

...12 targets, including 3 aerial defense batteries & 4 Iranian military targets, were attacked. Anti-aircraft missiles were fired towards Israel, triggering alarms in northern Israel'...

The 3rd wave was underway around 1 hour ago and resulted in reported 'explosions everywhere around Damascus'.

Intensive activity of 'Syrian' air defences was reported, too. Between others, and in total, social media indicated firings of 20-25 S-200s/SA-5s, S-125/SA-3s, and Pantsyr S1/SA-19s so far.

[CrowBat]

Further to the 'Battle of Conoco oilfield', from 8 February: slowly, very slowly, pieces of the puzzle are coming together.

Inside the U.S. coalition attack on Syrian forces in Deir-ez-Zor

...Pro-government outlets have made various claims about their losses: that zero deaths occurred,5. that all deaths were among local tribesmen,6. or that only 25 National Defense Force (NDF) fighters died.7. However, loyalist martyrdom reports paint a very different picture.

Within 24 hours, 22 martyrs “of the American aggression in Deir Ez Zor” had been named and at least 30 bodies had been brought back to the hospital in Suqaylabiyah.8. Of these men, only two were Deir-ez-Zor locals of the Bagarra tribe: Laith and Ashraf al-Bashir, sons of the influential Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir.9. Of the remaining 20 fighters, seven were from the coastal governorate of Tartous, five from the coastal governorate of Latakia, and eight from Hama.10. Two of the men from Tartous were high ranking officers: Brigadier General Yusuf Haider and Lieutenant Colonel Yasser Essa. Lieutenant Colonel Essa and eight other fighters were identified as members of the enigmatic “ISIS Hunters,” a small Russian-equipped, well-trained, and well-armed militia historically operating in Syria’s east.11. Brigadier General Haider was identified by a relative as a Russian linguist.12.
...

Furthermore, in June 2017 the St. Petersburg-based Fontanka organisation broke the news that the new gas and oil company Euro Polis and the state-owned General Petroleum Corporation had signed contracts granting them the rights to 25% of any oil and gas production at facilities captured by “its contractors” from ISIS.18. This was confirmed by the Associated Press in December 2017.19. The Fontanka report further identified “ISIS Hunters” as holding “contractual obligations” to Euro Polis for securing those oil and gas fields. Fontanka also published a video filmed by Russian fighters near Palmyra, Homs, identical to an earlier video published by the official ISIS Hunters Twitter page.20.
...

Shortly after the skirmish, a mid-level Syrian fighter posted his account of what happened on Facebook: “At around 10:45pm last night, the Syrian Arab Army and its friends began the battle for the liberation of the Conoco gas fields controlled by the Kurdish militias.”21. Two sources close to another Russian private military contractor operating in Syria, Wagner PMC, further claimed there were Russian casualties in the battle.22.23. The high concentration of ISIS Hunters among the attacking forces, the presence of a Russian linguist, and the intention of seizing the largest gas fields in Deir-ez-Zor implies that this attack was instigated either by Wagner PMC or by Russian leaders within the ISIS Hunters, potentially at the behest of General Petroleum Corporation.
...

Now, this is making things as complicated as it's explaining them.

Crucial is the notion that - according to this article - the push for Conoco oilfield was financially motivated. It's simply so that the contractor gets 25% of the oil revenue from captured facilities. This prompted multiple groups into getting involved in the race.

Mind: oilfields are private ownership of strategic importance. Nothing that belongs to whoever stumbles into one. Wars, uprisings, insurgencies, proxy wars, legitimate or illegitimate governments, mass murderers or whatever is in power - or not: there are contracts for oilfields, assigning the ownership to specific parties. In this case it's the Conoco. And Conoco gives 25% of the profit to anybody 'liberating' its facility there.

Along that line, no surprise that multiple parties got involved ... or that the US-supported PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-conglomerate 'defended with all means on hand': i.e. the PKK rose the US flag like its underwear and the CENTCOM was promptly on the scene.

That's pure war profiteering - by all the involved parties. At least two of these paid a hefty price for losing that race.

[Dishonesty]

It looks like S-125 Missile,SAM-3

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cp...eaec0c5d33.jpg

[CrowBat]

More likely a S-200VM, aka SA-5 Gammon.

[Dishonesty]

Nope,
it is S-125 missile.
look at size,shape and difference between tail fin&destabilizator
S-125
https://www.google.cz/search?q=s+125...JDtZGXPUTXADM:

S-200
https://www.google.cz/search?rlz=1C1...fnvn69ORYC9qM:

[CrowBat]

Ah, the second stage. Isee.

Was that photo taken on the Golan Heights?

Namely, I doubt any V-601 could get all the way to Israel...

[AdamG]

MOSCOW — Four Russian nationals, and perhaps dozens more, were killed in fighting between pro-government forces in eastern Syria and members of the United States-led coalition fighting the Islamic State, according to Russian and Syrian officials.
A Syrian military officer said that about 100 Syrian soldiers had been killed in the fighting on Feb. 7 and 8, but news about Russian casualties has dribbled out only slowly, through Russian news organizations and social media.

Inconvenient truths?

And some individual Russians have begun speaking out. Aleksandr Ionov, a Russian businessman working in Syria offering security and other services, said he estimated after conversations with associates in several private military organizations that more than 200 Russians might have been killed.
Mr. Ionov said not all those killed were Russian: Some of the paid fighters came from other countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. “More than 200 is the current estimate, we cannot know the exact number yet, but most of them were Russian,” he said in a telephone interview.
Mr. Ionov said he was speaking out because he wanted any Russians who were killed to be officially recognized for their sacrifice.

Aleksandr Averin, a member of the Other Russia nationalist party, confirmed that Kirill Ananiev, a party member who left for Syria about a year ago, had been killed in the airstrike, noting that there were other “substantial losses.”
“I can confirm that Kirill died on Feb. 7 in Syria, near the Euphrates River, as a result of a strike by the American coalition,” Mr. Averin said in an interview, adding that he was aware of “substantial losses” suffered by “paramilitary structures with ties to Russia.” He refused to elaborate.
Another victim, Vladimir N. Loginov, 51, died “in an unequal fight on Feb. 7 in the area of Syria’s Deir al-Zour,” according to a statement published online by his paramilitary organization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/w...yria-dead.html

[AdamG]

UNITED NATIONS — North Korea has been shipping supplies to the Syrian government that could be used in the production of chemical weapons, United Nations experts contend.
The evidence of a North Korean connection comes as the United States and other countries have accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons on civilians, including recent attacks on civilians in the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta using what appears to have been chlorine gas.
The supplies from North Korea include acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers, according to a report by United Nations investigators. North Korean missile technicians have also been spotted working at known chemical weapons and missile facilities inside Syria, according to the report, which was written by a panel of experts who looked at North Korea’s compliance with United Nations sanctions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/w...sanctions.html

or

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/polit...ons/index.html

or

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43219614

[Azor]

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...-from-lebanon/

The US has denied involvement...

[Azor]

See here: https://twitter.com/intellipus/statu...32108691087360

Syrian SAM bases in 2018. CrowBat - thoughts?

[JWing]

Cross posting this. My 2nd interview with author Tom Cooper. This time we discussed the role of the Iranian Rev Guard in the Iraq and Syrian wars.