Syria in 2018-2019

[CrowBat]

More likely a S-200VM, aka SA-5 Gammon.

[Dishonesty]

Nope,
it is S-125 missile.
look at size,shape and difference between tail fin&destabilizator
S-125
https://www.google.cz/search?q=s+125...JDtZGXPUTXADM:

S-200
https://www.google.cz/search?rlz=1C1...fnvn69ORYC9qM:

[CrowBat]

Ah, the second stage. Isee.

Was that photo taken on the Golan Heights?

Namely, I doubt any V-601 could get all the way to Israel...

[davidbfpo]

Twelve hundred words in WaPo landed this plaudit by Charles Lister; judge for yourself.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrias-war-mutates-into-a-regional-conflict-risking-a-wider-conflagration/2018/02/12/87c783fc-0da2-11e8-998c-96deb18cca19_story.html?

[Dishonesty]

Somewhere in northern Israel...
It is from:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43020830

[CrowBat]

This just came in via the ACIG.info forum. I'm still trying to get the original link.

More from one of Russian volunteers, Mikhail Polynkov

Сходил я в госпиталь, проведал одного из выживших в той мясорубке под Хишимом.
Что я могу сказать, если вкратце. Цифры про 600 двухсотых это не миф. Было три штурмовых отряда в среднем по 300 человек из россиян и дончан. Плюс артдивизион и бронегруппа.
Я конечно делал запись на диктофон минут на сорок. Но чтобы не палить парня, дам все в расшифровке. Откровенно говоря, из-за такой активной пропаганде противоположного мнения, я уже и сам начал сомневаться в правдивости случившегося. И сейчас, я убедился в том, что вся первая появившаяся информация чистая правда. И откровенно говоря, мне без разницы поверят мне или нет. Те кто меня лично знают, знают так же и то, что я не способен на подлог. А остальные... если есть действительно желание знать правду, пусть навестит один из трёх госпиталей и пообщаются с ранеными. Их очень много. В вишневского, некоторые даже в коридоре лежат.
И дорогие мои сограждане, сейчас действительно наступил момент истины. Обращайте внимание на тех, кто говорит, что всё что произошло под Хишимом это ложь и провокация.

Translation:




600 KIA... man, even if he cites three Russian groups 'only' - that simply can't be 'Wagner PMC' and 'ISIS Hunters' alone... Even all the three of Liwa al-Bakr's newly established 'battalions' don't number as many.

On the other side, if there were as many Russians KIA... well, Putin can't left this remain 'unanswered'.

*****************

And all of that 'just because of this': The epic failure of our age: how the west let down Syria

...It was always a mistake to believe the Syrian conflict could be kept at arm’s length. Now, due to its complexity, longevity and transnational character, it is hitting home. Syria has permanently changed our world....

Meanwhile, I've got a feeling that this is running out of control. Now we can only hope the two idiots in charge aren't going to turn this into a nuclear war.

[AdamG]

MOSCOW — Four Russian nationals, and perhaps dozens more, were killed in fighting between pro-government forces in eastern Syria and members of the United States-led coalition fighting the Islamic State, according to Russian and Syrian officials.
A Syrian military officer said that about 100 Syrian soldiers had been killed in the fighting on Feb. 7 and 8, but news about Russian casualties has dribbled out only slowly, through Russian news organizations and social media.

Inconvenient truths?

And some individual Russians have begun speaking out. Aleksandr Ionov, a Russian businessman working in Syria offering security and other services, said he estimated after conversations with associates in several private military organizations that more than 200 Russians might have been killed.
Mr. Ionov said not all those killed were Russian: Some of the paid fighters came from other countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. “More than 200 is the current estimate, we cannot know the exact number yet, but most of them were Russian,” he said in a telephone interview.
Mr. Ionov said he was speaking out because he wanted any Russians who were killed to be officially recognized for their sacrifice.

Aleksandr Averin, a member of the Other Russia nationalist party, confirmed that Kirill Ananiev, a party member who left for Syria about a year ago, had been killed in the airstrike, noting that there were other “substantial losses.”
“I can confirm that Kirill died on Feb. 7 in Syria, near the Euphrates River, as a result of a strike by the American coalition,” Mr. Averin said in an interview, adding that he was aware of “substantial losses” suffered by “paramilitary structures with ties to Russia.” He refused to elaborate.
Another victim, Vladimir N. Loginov, 51, died “in an unequal fight on Feb. 7 in the area of Syria’s Deir al-Zour,” according to a statement published online by his paramilitary organization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/w...yria-dead.html

[CrowBat]

This looks like Putler, but Washington too, are shocked by what happened, and actually lacking words: certainly having no clue how to react.

Putler announced practically 'the war is over' and ordered a 'withdrawal' of Russian troops out of Syria: then it turns out the war isn't over and they didn't withdraw. He announced a quick and de-facto easy victory: then they got killed in droves after he ordered that withdrawal - and that not while 'fighting IGIL', but while assaulting 'US allies' for war-profiteering purposes.

All of that short of elections in Russia.

Back in October-November 2015, and again in January 2016, he was de-facto threatening with deployment of nukes should anybody dare defeating Russian troops in Syria (back then there were deliberations that Turkey and Saudi Arabia might launch their own counter-intervention; some Saudis went as far as to talk about their country having nukes, too).

Right now, Putler simply can't openly admit this has happened nor that dozens/hundreds of Russians were killed (even though he certainly does find it opportune to get rid of characters in question: keep in mind that many of them have served in Ukraine too). He can't counter even those Russians reporting ever more about what has happened. If he does so, he has to explain what has happened.

...and he can't openly attack US troops in Syria either: he knows that would

a) end in another catastrophe, and

b) cause a war with the USA.

But, he can't left this unanswered, either. Thus, he's 'buying time with silence'.

And Washington, i.e. the people lacking fresh air (see: the Pentagon) seems to have concluded they've 'went too far', kind of. Thus, there is next to no commentary, and next to no releases of combat camera videos. Seems their first impression was the same like mine, and they've concluded they're attacking a pure IRGC-force - even more so since they've had the Russian military commanders on the telephone, all the time.

Who would have expected the latter to either not know what's going on, or to lie in such obvious fashion...?

[CrowBat]

The RT just delivered the 'Pearl of the Day' (perhaps this week, too):
RT reporter in Afrin asks YPG fighter why he is wearing civilian clothes, he answered "to protect myself from Turkish shelling, Turkish army shells anyone wearing uniform even in civilian areas".

At least he's sincere - although with this: every military-aged civilian casualty in the Efrin enclave just became 'extremely questionable'.

And while they're still insisting on their 'non-involvement' in this part of Syria: guess, certain officers in diverse SOCOM and CENTCOM HQs - probably a few of the people in need of fresh air, too - have developed major stomach problems today.

[davidbfpo]

Eliot Higgins aka Bellingcat via Newsweek on chemical weapons use in Syria and the information war. He opens with:

Since the earliest reports of chemical weapon use in the Syrian conflict, a growing community of denialists has emerged, comprising online commentators, bloggers, pro–Bashar al-Assad activists and fringe websites.This in itself is not usual. From 9/11 to the Las Vegas mass shooting, online communities have coalesced around opinions and theories about what “really happened.”
What is unusual about this community is how their views are beginning to creep into mainstream discourse about the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and how that is being used to undermine investigations that attempt to establish the facts surrounding these crimes.

Link:http://www.newsweek.com/what-truth-a...vilians-805264

[AdamG]

An assessment currently making the rounds on social media, but without source citations it's just well-written RUMINT.

Should anyone be able to connect the bullet points with sources, feel free to post those URLs.

Dair Ezor Turkey Shoot
by "John Ringo"

Further reporting, such as it is, on the Dair Ezzor Turkey Shoot.
1. Sov... err... Russians built a bridge over the Euphrates which was the designated 'deconfliction line'. Why? Reasons. 'Commite of Nations' or something.
2. 'Hybrid' force of mixed Russian contractors including multiple non-ethnic Russians (Serbs, Kossack, other non Slavics) as well as local Syrian Army 'commandos' attacked across temporary bridge. The 'Russian' side were 'Blackwater' equivalent mercenaries from a company generally called 'Wagner' which is the nom de plume of the boss. (Like if you called Blackwater 'Prince'.)
3. Unit was partially mechanized, battalion strength. (One thing everyone agrees upon is 'about 600-700 personnel.') Had some towed artillery as well as 't-55 and T-72 MBT as well as armored personnel carriers.' (Type unknown.) Full on 'we're taking that position and you're not stopping us' full court press.
4. Unit crossed bridge, arty deployed.
5. Arty opened fire while most of unit was still in approach column formation. (Normal) One portion moved to flanking positions.
5A. Minute the arty opened fire #### GOT REAL REAL QUICK.
6. Reapers took out artillery and most of armor with Hellfire. From the few videos, pretty much before they knew what hit them. There had to be quite a few Reaper drones up or they were feeding guidance to Hellfire from Apaches (see below.)
7. F-15E Eagles came in for clean-up and to check for anti-air defenses.
8. Warthogs showed up just to go BRRRRRRT!
9. AC-130 Spectre started ####ing up their day for the hell of it.
10. To add insult to injury, B-52s which, you know, just HAPPENED to be in the area, just minding our own business, just passing by from Diego Garcia which is a few thousand miles away, on our way to... somewhere... nothing to see here... decided to prove they could drop their entire load as precision guided weapons and just more or less DID A JDAM ARCLIGHT ON THEIR ASS. At that point, more or less because CENTCOM said 'Why not? ARCLIGHT is always pretty to watch...'
11. The whole thing being so over it was ridiculous, AH-64 Apaches basically did 'hostile Bomb Damage Assessment' and complained there were no targets left.
12. Oh, and then the Kurds, to just really #### with these guys, released water from a dam upstream and broke their bridge. So they had to ford back with their wounded.
13. Nobody knows how many dead and wounded. Russians are saying 'only 8 Russian citizens' but that doesn't quite cover the whole of who may have been involved. One repeated number is 200 dead (remember, mixed Syrians, Russians and other ethnics) as well as pretty much the rest of the force wounded. (Not to mention pretty thoroughly demoralized.) One Kurd wounded. Probably fell off a stool laughing to tell truth.
14. Military hospitals in Russia are reliably reported 'overflowing.'
This was much less a 'battle' than a message. Towards the end we had to just be pounding ground to make sure they got it.
Messages, really.
A. Don't ####ing cross that river.
B. Hey, North Korea! LOOK WHAT I CAN DO!
C. Hey, Putin, about Donbas... This is what we can do to your 'freedom fighters' (AKA: mercenaries) at any time.
D. To everyone in general: You need to remember who's boss.
Mattis is playing dumb. 'What Russians? There were Russians? Really? I'm seeing that in the media but I got no briefing on there being Russians in that column. Our bad. Sorry about that.'
Then there's the fact that the strike was NOT approved by the President.
Because he gave CENTOM the approval on things like that.
And CENTCOM handled it like a BOSS.
Oh, and when the forces crossed the river the Russians were informed and informed that we intended to take 'self-defense' actions.
So they can't even say they weren't warned.
I'm not sure we warned them we'd be using BUFF.
This is more the sort of thing I'd expect in late summer.
'####! We haven't expended our budget! Are there any Russians we can #### up very badly with all these unexpended munitions?'
Last thought: It had to be ####ty being on the receiving end of that.

[AdamG]

UNITED NATIONS — North Korea has been shipping supplies to the Syrian government that could be used in the production of chemical weapons, United Nations experts contend.
The evidence of a North Korean connection comes as the United States and other countries have accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons on civilians, including recent attacks on civilians in the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta using what appears to have been chlorine gas.
The supplies from North Korea include acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers, according to a report by United Nations investigators. North Korean missile technicians have also been spotted working at known chemical weapons and missile facilities inside Syria, according to the report, which was written by a panel of experts who looked at North Korea’s compliance with United Nations sanctions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/w...sanctions.html

or

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/polit...ons/index.html

or

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43219614

[Azor]

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...-from-lebanon/

The US has denied involvement...

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON - The likelihood of a military strike against Syria after a suspected chemical weapons attack increased Sunday as President Donald Trump said there would be a "big price to pay" and officials in France vowed the country would "do its duty" in responding.

France called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday to discuss the weekend attack, and eight other nations joined in the request, including the United States and Britain.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/ar...l-12815978.php

[Azor]

From the Jewish News Syndicate: https://www.jns.org/analysis-latest-...ranian-threat/

(April 9, 2018 / JNS) The recent missile strike on a military airbase deep in the central Syrian desert looks like the latest installment in a long-standing Israeli campaign to police its red lines against highly dangerous developments to its north.

Usually, such strikes are driven by incoming intelligence of threatening activity underway in Syria—activity that breaches Jerusalem’s ban on Iran from constructing military bases in Syria, from setting up weapons factories there and from using Syria as a transit zone for the trafficking of advanced arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran is keen to cash in on its heavy investment and bloody involvement on behalf of the survival of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. That means attempting to expand the Iranian military presence on Syrian soil. Israel is determined to stop this at all costs.

By chance or not, the strike also comes amid fallout from the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons against rebel-held areas over the weekend, leading to warnings from President Donald Trump of likely military strikes in retaliation.

Nevertheless, the precise reason that triggered the latest strike remains unknown and can probably only be found in classified intelligence reports.

What is clear, however, is that over the past several years, Israel has reportedly carried out a series of strikes targeting the Iranian-led axis in Syria. If left unchecked, Iran would flood Syria with Shi’a militia groups and terrorist organizations, arm them with rockets and missiles, and set up terrorist cells. It would convert southern Syria into a new launch pad for attacks against Israel.

Iran’s Quds Force, the elite overseas unit, and Hezbollah use Syria to manufacture and smuggle precision-guided ballistic missiles, heavy rockets, advanced surface-to-air missiles and surface-to-sea missiles. Israel has reportedly disrupted these activities on a regular basis.

Lebanon is already a well-established Iranian rocket base, filled to the brim with 120,000 rockets embedded in 200 Shi’a Lebanese villages. All of these projectiles are pointed at Israel. Under Iran’s plans, Syria, too, would become a major threat.

The military base reportedly struck in the latest attack, known as “T4,” has a history. In early February, Israeli fighter jets destroyed an Iranian drone control cabin that was stationed there, after Iranian operators sitting in it flew a drone into Israeli airspace. It’s likely that the Iranian operators were killed in that attack.

According to reports that emerged on Monday, Iranian military personnel were killed in Monday’s strike as well. That would seem to indicate that whatever was going on at the T4 airbase—hundreds of kilometers from the Israeli border—constituted a serious security threat to Israel, and that Iran has again tested the waters, seeing how far it can go in building up its military presence before provoking an Israeli response.

This dangerous pattern looks set to continue. Each incident represents a potential escalation point that can spiral into a wider conflict between Israel and the radical Shi’a axis that is taking over much of the Middle East.

The Russian complication

What makes this situation more tense is the fact that Russia acts as the air force of the Shi’a axis in Syria. Russian airpower helped turn the tide of the war in Assad’s favor, a fact that has probably given the Syrian dictator the confidence to unleash the horrors of chemical warfare on Sunni areas and make a mockery of the international community in the process.

Russia has, through its waves of airstrikes in Syria, gained a warm-water port at Syria’s Tartus naval base, and it has an airbase at Hmeimim on the Syrian coastline. It has moved advanced air-defense batteries to Syria. Moscow has used its intervention to position itself as a superpower actor in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the United States has decreased its influence in Syria to a bare minimum.

Israel seeks no conflict with Russia, but is unwilling to ignore the activities of Moscow’s allies—something Israel has communicated to Russia repeatedly.

The Russians have so far been able to help de-escalate the situation by convincing their radical and dubious allies to tone down their responses to Israel’s self-defense actions. The Iranian axis may not have needed much convincing; it remains fundamentally deterred by Israel’s vast firepower and intelligence capabilities. Iran is keen on consolidating its control of Syria at this stage, rather than opening a new active front against Israel right now, which would risk its entire Syrian project. But if it succeeds in its goal of converting Syria into a new base of hostility towards Israel, there can be no doubt that sooner or later, it would activate this front.

These events put Russia’s project in Syria at risk, and this poses a complication. Any full-scale conflict that erupts would place the Assad regime in existential threat, and Russia could see its investment go down the drain.

Statements released by Moscow on Monday indicate Russian displeasure at Israel’s alleged actions.

Yet Israel has responded that it will not blink when it comes to defending its security.

It’s also hard to ignore the fact that the alleged Israeli strike came hours after a horrendous chemical massacre was carried out, once again, by the Assad regime against a rebel-held area. Scenes of men, women and children murdered through the use chemical-weapons agents have once again flooded the world, with an ally of Iran and Russia—the Assad regime—again committing a ghastly crime against humanity.

As a result, it cannot be ruled out that the latest attack also served as an Israeli signal of intolerance to the usage of chemical weapons in the region.

Whatever triggered the strike, one thing seems certain: Iran will continue to test Israel’s lines, and Israel will continue to enforce them.

[davidbfpo]

Or you can try this by a Forum member, published several days ago now and only just discovered.
Link:http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...4647?page=show

[CrowBat]

Some rather amusing political/security commentary here: https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/statu...50969680396288

Fairly significant news: Israel did not warn Russia before it struck Syrian airbase yesterday. The airbase hit (T4) had previously served as a major Russian operating base, until just a few months ago.

The first is 'nothing new', the second is 'nonsense'.

The Russians did make some use of T-4, but only back in 2015-2016. They aren't around that base already since it was nearly overrun by the Daesh, in December 2016.

Seems Tel Aviv does not trust Moscow.

Since when does Israel trust anybody?

Israel has clearly not been pleased with Russia's inability or unwillingness to restrain Iranian ops in Syria. Russia's Sept 2017 assurance that it would not allow Iran/Hezbollah to threaten Israel has been followed instead by enhanced IRGC drone presence.

This is also nonsense.

What should the Russians do to 'restrain' the IRGC, PLEASE?

They can barely keep Assad in power.

In February, the Israeli Air Force hit T4 airbase hard after Iran sent a drone from there into Israeli airspace. By some estimates (which :?: ), IAF destroyed 50% :?: Syria's air defences as it struck four Iranian and eight Syrian sites, with Russia inactive.

If 4 SAM-sites are '50% of the Assad air defence', then yes (for details, see the link posted by David, above).

Israel's barely even talking to Russians at this point, who are losing control of situation.

Nah... really? Russians are 'losing control of situation'...?

Oh, and BTW: since when are the Russians 'in control' of the 'situation' in Syria, actually...?

But, sigh, that's a 'serious commentator' in our days. Well, after reading this, all I can conclude is that there's absolutely nothing new on this planet. I'm back to my 'historical' research and lurking...

[Azor]

See here: https://twitter.com/intellipus/statu...32108691087360

Syrian SAM bases in 2018. CrowBat - thoughts?

[davidbfpo]

From an Israeli think tank:

The Syrian army is completing its takeover of the Syrian Golan Heights while establishing its presence along the border with Israel. The only remaining area of resistance is the ISIS-controlled Yarmouk Basin, which is under attack by the Syrian army, including artillery shelling and airstrikes.....Most of the areas under the control of the rebel organizations fell into the hands of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, without significant fighting but rather through surrender agreements (so-called reconciliation agreements) involving the Russians. The most prominent area where a surrender agreement was reached was the area of Quneitra. The agreement that was reached included a ceasefire, the return of the Syrian army to all the positions that had been under its control before the civil war, and the evacuation of rebel operatives who did not want to join the agreement to the Idlib region in northern Syria. As a result, Syrian soldiers entered the towns and villages in the area without any fighting, including the village of Al-Rafid, near the border with Israel.

Link:https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en...ly-19-25-2018/

There is more on the link on other developments.

There is a small thread on the Golan Heights, for reference:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...shpoint-coming

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this. At times a painful read this piece in 'The Atlantic' offers an explanation why Assad appears today to have won. Being ruthless was one factor and with help from those who simply ignored the critics (akin to Sri Lanka may be).

The last two passages:

From the outside, Assad’s victory looks like no victory at all. He is king of the ashes, overlooking a distraught country from his presidential palace. He has yet to conquer vast swathes of territory and faces ongoing terrorist attacks from jihadist sleeper cells. He must rebuild a heavily indebted, struggling economy, with a shrunken population shorn of much of its technical and intellectual skill. He is reliant on two powerful foreign allies, Russia and Iran, who have infiltrated state institutions and the economy and wield huge influence. He must placate the millions of loyal Syrians who have sacrificed their blood and treasure to keep him on his throne.Yet to Assad and his inner circle, who have been playing a long game, it must seem these problems can still be surmounted, even if it takes decades. For them, the war was about survival, and in this sense they have won. Their own cynicism and ruthlessness at home combined with decisive assistance from abroad (whether intentional or not) has allowed them to remain in power. It was brutal and inhumane but, from their perspective, it worked. That is a chilling lesson for other dictators.

Link:https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-syria/566522/