Syria in 2018-2019

[CrowBat]

The Keystone Cops in Moscow are on the best way to deliver their next pearl in Syria.

First a photo, and then two videos appeared in the Assadist social media, showing two Sukhoi T.50s about to land at Hmemmem AB, in Syria, yesterday.

Meanwhile, it's official: Interfax was granted permission to publish an official confirmation.

Now, please all quickly get yourself some popcorn and cola: this is going to be funny.

...erm, what do you mean with 'why'...?

Well, imagine trying to fly combat operations over an active combat zone in our days - and then in an aircraft that:

- has an inadequate and incomplete sensor suite;
- has an incomplete fire-control system;
- has an incomplete self-protection suite;
- has no integrated avionics suite that could be considered 'operational';
- that is powered by unreliable engines;
- that has got no air-to-air weaponry at all (the T.50 didn't undergo any kind of integration of live weapons trials with about 160 R-77s acquired by the VKS since early 2017, while R-74 is still not in series production);
- has underwent hardly any weapons separation testing (except for two types of dumb bombs),
- actually lacks any kind of operational armament bar its internal 30mm cannon; etc...

Ah yes: and then try doing your job as a pilot of such a 'stealth fighter' - in an air force with no doctrine for operations of stealth aircraft.

*************

Wait: thinking of it... should one get shot down in Syria, the Keystone Cops in Moscow can for once speak truth and say, 'it was an unarmed aircraft on an observation mission'... (which is what they said after their Su-25 was shot down).

*************

Tragically, the future target list for T.50s in Syria has already been determined. All provided one of them can find its way to Eastern Ghouta, of course:

- Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF): The shelling of Gouta destroyed 13 hospitals and a WHO clinic in three days.

Actual number is at around 22.

**************

Of course, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have officially denied any kind of VKS' involvement in bombardment of Eastern Ghouta. Because of that denial, I'm now in position to present you a true sensation: an officially-confirmed Fatamorgana (a Su-34 about to strike some place in Eastern Ghouta, two days ago):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aetDL6jRdM

[AdamG]

Russia tries to pass video game off as footage of Syria, again. This time not the defense ministry but state TV.
https://twitter.com/TheBrandonMorse/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

[davidbfpo]

Professor Daniel Byman has a good overview and ends with:

Syria was not Iraq, Iraq was not Afghanistan, and the next conflict involving global terrorist groups will be a different one entirely. But if the United States can learn the above lessons, it might do better the next time around—or at least avoid doing far worse.

Link:https://lawfareblog.com/six-countert...rian-civil-war

[CrowBat]

The USA? Perhaps.

The Pentagon - not.

And the Pentagon is meanwhile running the US foreign politics in the Middle East.

Their newest achievement is something people were warning about already a year ago: a group called Popular Resistance of Raqqa was formed in #Raqqa, their goal is to defeat YPG/SDF. It's mainly made of Sunni Arab tribes.

Means: the Pentagon has finally provoked another war in the Middle East - and then another Sunni insurgency, too - and that while supporting a Marxist group considered a 'terrorist organisation' even by US laws.

[AdamG]

Exclusive satellite images from ImageSat International obtained by Fox News show what is believed to be the new Iranian base, eight miles northwest of Damascus, operated by the Quds Force — the special operations arm of Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The photos show two new white hangars, each roughly 30 yards by 20 yards, used to store short- and medium-range missiles.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/02...-in-syria.html

[CrowBat]

As if the Pentagon would care about IRGC's deployment in Syria: the Iranians meanwhile control at least 80,000 combatants - largely Shi'a jihadists and all other possible sectarian militias - there, but Trump and the Pentagon are still doing as if 15 Hezbollah advisors in Yemen are a bigger threat...

Talking about the logics of the 'US foreign politics' as run by the People in Need of Fresh Air (the Pentagon) in Syria, here slightly more in regards of the absurdity they've created.

Few days ago, a surprisingly frank critique of Western behaviour in regards of the PKK/PYD/YPG-supported conglomerate in the Afrin enclave was published - double surprise - in German language: Der Westen hat die Kurden NICHT verraten (or: The West didn't 'betray' the Kurds in Afrin).

By side that articles of this kind in German are more rare than snake's sweat: the author of that feature has nicelly illustrated how the PKK's (let's remain frank) alliance with the US and its ability conquer territory in NE Syria emboldened it into the break-down of negotiations with Erdogan.

Yes, sure, this is something not only the Pentagon but all the other talking-heads in the USA and elsewhere in the West are going to deny: after all, this is exactly the standpoint made by the Turkish media all the time - and since years already - but lost in idiotically simplistic publications about Erdogan unilaterally 'terminating peace talks'.

At least until now.

Namely, The Daily Beast now came out with a similar complaint - and indeed: a complement to the above-mentioned article in German.

Even more so: the article points out that such behaviour of the USA and the West have bolstered the Turkish paranoia against the West, and thus not only play directly into Erdogan's hands but is also helping bolster Erdogan's own aggrandizement.

Overall, the People in Need of Fresh air can really congratulate themselves: through their super-smart, visionary politics in Syria, they have literally, 'bought one, got three wars for free' in that country.

[CrowBat]

Ah yes... and for those who might wonder: yes, I'm following developments in Eastern Ghouta, too - but, covering these on ACIG.info forum only. Sorry, but simply lacking time to do so on multiple platforms the last few days.

In an attempt to offer some compensation, here a summary of what was going on in Syria yesterday.

Some might recall there's something called the 'UN Security Council Resolution 2401', which stipulates a cease-fire for certain areas in Syria, including Idlib? Or even that this was supported by Moscow?

Well, not any more - and then for quite simple reasons. Namely, the Syrian insurgents there dared being as brazen as to turn against the al-Qaeda-affiliated HTS (ex-Nusra): a week ago, the Ahrar ash-Sham (AAS) and Harakat Noureddin az-Zenghi (HNAZ) joined into a new coalition - Jabhat Tahrir Souriyah (Syria's Liberation Front) - and then launched an all-out attack on the HTS. Surely, most of involved groups are Salafist by their ideology, and thus nearly all of Western observers prefer to make no difference between them and the HTS. But, sigh, there must be some - and then not only because the USA used to support the HNAZ until October 2015, and the Saudis are doing so ever since.

Anyway, the JTS' attack was soon joined by multiple other native insurgent groups, and caused a wholesale defection of Syrian insurgents that were a part of the HTS, too. The result is that the latter was meanwhile degraded to little else but the TIP and few Russians. As a consequence, and after more than one week of bitter fighting, it's lost most of its grip on southern and eastern Idlib.

...much to displeasure of the Keystone Cops in Moscow (guess: much to displeasure of the People in Need of Fresh Air, too).

Correspondingly, the Russians have 'silently' abandoned the case-fire and are since yesterday bombing Idlib again. That is: they are bombing those places now controlled by Free Syrian Army groups that sided with the JTS in its attack on the HTS. Of course, this cannot happen because Putin has ordered a withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, back in November last year. Thus, it must be some kind of Swiss subs or something that's flying withdrawal and losing ordnance while doing that...

For example, this Swiss sub lost one bomb while underway over Khan Sheykhoun, only an hour after the place was liberated from the HTS by the FSyA's Jaysh al-Izza - and promptly killed several civilians.

Subsequently, and in clear violation of the UNSCR 2401 the Swiss subs extended their accidental ordnance release (guess: pilots of VKS' unarmed observation aircraft got scared by all the fighting against al-Qaida below them?) to several other places around Idlib:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MFTiUkuIr0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc-ntQGQcZs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW5nEMQeX6I

How cynical such attacks are shows alone the fact that even Assadists acknowledge the HTS being kicked out of places like Urum al-Kubra, Taftanaz AB, Khan Sheykhoun, Anadan etc...

Ah yes: the next area over which we can expect the Swiss subs to start losing their ordnance will be the western Aleppo.

Reason?

Syrian insurgent groups there declared their defection from the HTS.

**************

Bombardment of Eastern Ghouta was continued immediately after the cease-fire ended, at 14.00hrs local time, yesterday - and despite the offer of FSyA-affiliated groups to evacuate the HTS out of this area. The Russians not only ignored this, but claimed that 'militants/terrorists' have 'opened fire at civilians that attempted to evacuate' - and skilfully supported this by videos from Aleppo, back in 2016. In their next lie, the Keystone Cops in Moscow announced that the 'militants started a new offensive against Syrian forces'.

Actually, it was the Assadists that attacked and claimed the capture of 'strategic areas', apparently including Hawsh Dawahirah and outskirts of Shufaniya. Gauging by photos like this one, this effort ended in another major failure ('another', because two days ago the Quwwat Nimr/Tiger Force and the Republican Guards demonstrated their 'military effectiveness' by driving into a similar ambush further south). On the contrary, it's making one wonder how many more troops can the Assadists afford the Russians and the IRGC to spend as cannon fodder there.

Below another photo of an unarmed Swiss sub that lost its ordnance over Eastern Ghouta while withdrawing from Syria - all by accident, of course.

Mind: Russian Su-24s are easy to recognize from those still operated by the Assadsits alone by the position of their wings. Because they are bombing with support of that super-turbo-nav/attack system called SVP-24, the Russians fly very slow, and thus with their wings spread fully forwards (top photo). Assadist Su-24s have their wings always swept to middle position before bomb release (bottom photo). Furthermore, Russian Su-24s carry drop tanks: Assadist none.

[CrowBat]

And, further in regards of this:

...
Their newest achievement is something people were warning about already a year ago: a group called Popular Resistance of Raqqa was formed in #Raqqa, their goal is to defeat YPG/SDF. It's mainly made of Sunni Arab tribes.

Means: the Pentagon has finally provoked another war in the Middle East - and then another Sunni insurgency, too - and that while supporting a Marxist group considered a 'terrorist organisation' even by US laws.

Sons of the city of Raqqa announce the formation of Syrian resistance against the American occupation

Now the Pentagon is getting an IRGC-supported (pay attention at the logo including an AK-47 held up by a hand), Assad-affiliated insurgency inside the area it put under the control of the PKK in Syria.

Isn't this simply fantastic...?

[davidbfpo]

What some describe as a 'mystery' and Der Spiegel journalists have been at work dissecting:

one of the most mysterious battles yet in this increasingly complex war.

Their report in English comes via a UK-based academic observer:http://eaworldview.com/2018/03/200-r...ria-maybe-not/

[AdamG]

Meet Caleb Stevens.
He joined the YPG.
He zigged when he should have stayed at West Point.
Don't be like Caleb.

A handful of Americans have joined People's Protection Units, also known as YPG, and other Syrian militia groups allied with the United States in recent years, according to experts and the federal government. Most of those who sign up are young adults, idealists and those with a military background who sympathize, and perhaps romanticize, the groups' stated fight against Islamic State and oppression in Syria, Turkey and Iraq.
Stevens had spent two years at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point when he started getting restless to join the conflict.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...cid=spartandhp