Nigeria watching 2018 onwards

[davidbfpo]

Something different, judge for yourself if it will make a difference.
Link:https://africanarguments.org/2018/10...haram-nigeria/

[davidbfpo]

The regional SME Alex Thurston, a Visiting Assistant Professor of African Studies at Georgetown University has a short article that reviews the writings of Colonel Timothy Antigha, a Nigerian Army spokesman. It ends with:

In conclusion, read the whole piece. It is the most interesting Nigerian government/military statement that I’ve seen about Boko Haram in quite some time. Again, I don’t agree with all of it, but it does give a window into how *some* top military officials see the jihadist organization. A final question, as with figures in the previous administration who also seemed to have a sophisticated viewpoint, is how much influence such analysts really have – or whether the guys who think in terms of body counts are the dominant figures after all.

Link:https://sahelblog.wordpress.com/2018...ws-boko-haram/

There are embedded links to the Colonel's articles.

[davidbfpo]

Earlier this week there were reports on a IS affiliate attack on a Nigerian Army base, with forty to one hundred soldiers killed; just as the Nigeria government claimed victory was near.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46328274? and today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46333126?

Today via Twitter I found a scathing commentary by Eeben Barlow, whose PMC was involved in advising the Nigerian Army before the election of President Buhari, who promptly ordered them out. Here are two passages:

......rumours also bubble beneath the surface that President Buhari viewed Boko Haram as an instrument that could reduce the force and standing of the military and thereby protect him from a possible coup d’état.

Ultimately, the innocent suffer and soldiers die, and every tactical victory Boko Haram achieves merely incentivises them to continue. This also gives impetus to the plans and actions of other radical terror groups across the continent.
North-eastern Nigeria is an example of what can happen when intelligence is rejected in favour of a false narrative.
Don’t blame the armed forces when poor political decisions result in the deaths of people.

Link:https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...00000624604126

[davidbfpo]

A commentary on the return of:

Since 2009, when Boko Haram first launched its insurgency, the group’s most recognisable leader has been Abubakar Shekau....In the last few months, there have been indications that Shekau is preparing for yet another resurrection. How this plays out could fundamentally shift the course of the insurgency going forwards.

Link:https://africanarguments.org/2018/12...om-dead-again/

[davidbfpo]

Recommended via Twitter by @bokowatch as essential reading:

It's been a trying year for Nigerian security, esp the Boko Haram crisis; below are some of the key articles and analyses from 2018 for reflecting on what transpired this past year (but by no means comprehensively including all important research on the subject):

https://www.politicsandreligionjourn...e/view/320/332

https://www.academia.edu/37964841/_S...lamic_Maghreb_

https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2018/05/Boko-Haram-Beyond-the-Headlines_Chapter-2.pdf

https://peccaviconsulting.wordpress....n-offensive-2/

https://chitrasudhanagarajan.files.w...e-yan-gora.pdf

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/...nst-boko-haram

https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/201..._Chapter-1.pdf

http://www.cddwestafrica.org/?p=80430

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...ns-reflag-isis

https://www.thecable.ng/breaking-bok...-live-as-slave

https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/bi...sponse-to-.pdf

https://issafrica.org/research/books...hin-boko-haram

http://www.aymennjawad.org/21618/aqi...issidents-full

[AdamG]

“Boko haram has taken over Baga town,” said the source. “More than 2,000 troops are there trapped, and 700 are missing. [Air Force] jets cannot do anything now because the soldiers are trapped in their midst”.

SaharaReporters could not independently verify the figures being mentioned, but a security source said it was "highly possible", considering Baga is the headquarters of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) — a formation comprising units, mostly military, from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and boasting between 7,500 and 10,000 personnel.

http://saharareporters.com/2018/12/2...lfyvKd1G2D0k1M

See also
https://thedefensepost.com/2018/12/3...dHuJYeiSdJwLRI

[AdamG]

International Joint Operation to remove uranium from a Nigerian reactor, October 2018
https://www.defensenews.com/news/pen...rorist-groups/