Nigeria watching 2018 onwards

**davidbfpo** · 06-25-2018

A video (55 mins) of an address to RUSI June 18th by the Nigerian Army Chief of Army Staff. The introduction refers to:

General Buratai is noted for his beliefs that the solution to combatting the insurgency does not lie in military operations alone – he is a proponent of comprehensive efforts involving both the Nigerian military and civil population. He will expand on how his differing approach to leadership of the Nigerian Army has advanced the battle against Boko Haram.

Link:https://rusi.org/event/degradation-boko-haram-northeastern-nigeria-what%E2%80%99s-next-nigerian-army?

I have not listened to this yet.

**davidbfpo** · 09-21-2018

A short 2016 report from an African think tank, that I spotted this week and interesting as the focus is on policing.

The Summary states:

As in much of Africa, the vast majority of security threats facing Nigeria are internal, often involving irregular forces such as insurgents, criminal gangs, and violent religious extremists. Effectively combating such threats requires cooperation from local communities—cooperation limited by low levels of trust in security forces who often have reputations for corruption, heavy-handedness, and politicization. Tackling modern security threats, then, is directly tied with improving the governance and oversight of the security sector, especially the police. Key paths forward include clarifying the structure of command and oversight, strengthening merit-based hiring and promotion processes, and better regulating private and voluntary security providers.

The Highlights:

Low levels of trust in the Nigerian police limit public cooperation critical to combatting internal security threats from irregular forces such as insurgents, criminal gangs, and extremists.
Allegations of corruption, heavy-handedness, and politicization have dogged the Nigeria Police Force for years. However, a lack of political will has perpetuated a culture of impunity, weak oversight, and an unwillingness to absorb lessons learned from previous efforts at police reform.
Improving the effectiveness of the Nigerian police depends on governance reforms. Depoliticizing the appointment and promotion processes for senior police officers and genuinely empowering oversight bodies are critical steps to opening a sustainable path to reform and rebuilding trust with local communities.

Link:https://africacenter.org/publication...-nigeria-html/

**davidbfpo** · 10-06-2018

Something different, judge for yourself if it will make a difference.
Link:https://africanarguments.org/2018/10...haram-nigeria/

**davidbfpo** · 10-22-2018

The regional SME Alex Thurston, a Visiting Assistant Professor of African Studies at Georgetown University has a short article that reviews the writings of Colonel Timothy Antigha, a Nigerian Army spokesman. It ends with:

In conclusion, read the whole piece. It is the most interesting Nigerian government/military statement that I’ve seen about Boko Haram in quite some time. Again, I don’t agree with all of it, but it does give a window into how *some* top military officials see the jihadist organization. A final question, as with figures in the previous administration who also seemed to have a sophisticated viewpoint, is how much influence such analysts really have – or whether the guys who think in terms of body counts are the dominant figures after all.

Link:https://sahelblog.wordpress.com/2018...ws-boko-haram/

There are embedded links to the Colonel's articles.

**davidbfpo** · 11-25-2018

Earlier this week there were reports on a IS affiliate attack on a Nigerian Army base, with forty to one hundred soldiers killed; just as the Nigeria government claimed victory was near.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46328274? and today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46333126?

Today via Twitter I found a scathing commentary by Eeben Barlow, whose PMC was involved in advising the Nigerian Army before the election of President Buhari, who promptly ordered them out. Here are two passages:

......rumours also bubble beneath the surface that President Buhari viewed Boko Haram as an instrument that could reduce the force and standing of the military and thereby protect him from a possible coup d’état.

Ultimately, the innocent suffer and soldiers die, and every tactical victory Boko Haram achieves merely incentivises them to continue. This also gives impetus to the plans and actions of other radical terror groups across the continent.
North-eastern Nigeria is an example of what can happen when intelligence is rejected in favour of a false narrative.
Don’t blame the armed forces when poor political decisions result in the deaths of people.

Link:https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...00000624604126

**davidbfpo** · 12-11-2018

A commentary on the return of:

Since 2009, when Boko Haram first launched its insurgency, the group’s most recognisable leader has been Abubakar Shekau....In the last few months, there have been indications that Shekau is preparing for yet another resurrection. How this plays out could fundamentally shift the course of the insurgency going forwards.

Link:https://africanarguments.org/2018/12...om-dead-again/

**davidbfpo** · 12-29-2018

Recommended via Twitter by @bokowatch as essential reading:

It's been a trying year for Nigerian security, esp the Boko Haram crisis; below are some of the key articles and analyses from 2018 for reflecting on what transpired this past year (but by no means comprehensively including all important research on the subject):