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Thread: Somalia (land & sea) 2018 onwards

  1. #21
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default AL-Shababís Military Machine

    This paper was produced by the Hiraal Institute, which is based in Somalia and has had recommendations by a "lurker". I noted these two sentences:
    At its height in 2010, the Jabahaat numbered more than 8000 men....The total number of the Jabahaat fighters is therefore at least 5000 men. Their decline is both a reflection of the pressures the group has come against and also its reconfiguration away from a conventional posture to a guerrilla strategy from 2011.
    Link:https://hiraalinstitute.org/al-shaba...itary-machine/
    davidbfpo

  2. #22
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Legacy of Blackhawk Down

    Mark Bowden has returned to Somalia and has this commentary. The sub-title gives a hint:
    Twenty-five years after the battle chronicled in the best-selling book, the author argues that we’ve learned the wrong lessons about fighting terrorism
    Link:https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...WtWd1WWQI8Y.99
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-06-2019 at 09:23 PM. Reason: 8,059v today
    davidbfpo

  3. #23
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Why Al-Shabaab survives in Somalia

    A topical commentary on Al-Shabaab in Somalia, two good maps of activity in 2017 and 2018. This comment explains why they retain popular support:
    Al Shabaab’s attacks make headlines, but the al Qaeda group offers something real to local Somalis. Perhaps incredibly, the group provides more efficient and less corrupt governance than the Somali Federal Government in some areas. Many Somalis prefer al Shabaab’s justice over the Somali courts—even traveling from government-controlled areas to al Shabaab-held areas to seek justice. Al Shabaab courts deliver a verdict faster and are more likely to enforce it. This benefit allows al Shabaab to maintain support and attack zones, despite U.S. airstrikes.
    Link:https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/fight-against-al-shabaab-isnt-over?

    This post will be cross-posted on the main Somalia thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...)-2018-onwards

    Kenya has its own thread, where thsi thread will e merged one day:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ya-(catch-all)
    davidbfpo

  4. #24
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default

    The U.S. military said it carried out an airstrike in Somalia that killed 52 al-Shabab extremists in response to an attack on Somali forces. The U.S. Africa Command statement says the airstrike occurred on Saturday near Jilib in Middle Juba region. The U.S. says Somali forces had come under attack by a 'large group' of the al-Qaida-linked extremists.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ocial-facebook
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-07-2019 at 05:55 PM. Reason: 8879v today
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  5. #25
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Assessing Challenges to AMISOMís Exit

    Hat tip to a SWJ item and this optimistic comment. I note AMISOM has been in place since 2007 and is due to leave in 2021; is it me, but the Somali nation-state seems unchanged in either the will or capacity to succeed?
    Link:http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2019/03/06/assessing-challenges-to-amisoms-exit/?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-21-2019 at 03:25 PM. Reason: 9761v today
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  6. #26
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default An effective Somali Natioan Army:no, not yet, just dire

    Hat tip to WoTR for this article, with plenty of links.
    Link:https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/wh...national-army/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-14-2019 at 07:26 PM. Reason: 10607v today
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  7. #27
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default When terrorists defect

    A rare article on defection from Al-Shabab and by a SME on the topic. A sample sentence:
    The focus of the program continues to be to win back the hearts and minds of those once thought lost to jihadists and hellbent on unraveling Somalia's social, cultural and political fabric.
    Link:https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/03/o...gan/index.html
    If you believe the defectors presented there is some insight into Somalia today.
    davidbfpo

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