We live in an era of implausible deniability and ambiguous warfare

[davidbfpo]

I have not seen this phrase before and it comes from IISS in an introduction to the forthcoming publication 'Strategic Survey'.

It opens with:

The methods by which countries gain strategic advantage are often both innovative and brazen. The ways in which such state action can be deterred or countered are still in development. Uncertainty is heighted by the fact that some geopolitical moves have no obvious or immediate counter. ‘Tolerance warfare’, a style of geopolitical challenge that appears to be a preferred technique of the status quo disrupters, is becoming more prevalent. Tolerance warfare can be defined as the persistent effort to test the tolerances for different forms of aggression against settled states. It is the effort to push back lines of resistance, probe weaknesses, assert rights unilaterally, break rules, establish new facts on the ground, strip others of initiative and gain systematic tactical advantage over hesitant opponents. The purpose of tolerance warfare is to stress-test the ability of the target to deter and defeat these efforts, and then to win advantage either by diverting the target’s resources away from a central strategic purpose, or by creating new conditions that cannot be reversed except by expensive strategic effort that is perhaps disproportionate to the loss otherwise sustained. Sometimes tolerance warfare is conducted overtly and is in effect ‘declared’; often tolerance warfare is conducted through proxies or partners, especially in the most immediate theatres of operations.

Going local for a moment:

Indeed, an ancillary feature of tolerance warfare is the deliberate effort to create diversionary narratives that are aimed at obfuscating the facts and sowing confusion in international public opinion. All this will continue for the foreseeable future.....The year 2018 will be remembered as a turning point: new measures were found by Western states to drain power and capacity away from Putin and his circle, however difficult that might be.

Link:https://www.iiss.org/publications/st...8-005056be3f90

[Bill Moore]

I have not seen this phrase before and it comes from IISS in an introduction to the forthcoming publication 'Strategic Survey'.

It opens with:

Going local for a moment:
Link:https://www.iiss.org/publications/st...8-005056be3f90

David,

The author captures the essence of today's conflict, but sadly he or she plagiarized the numerous papers on gray zone competition or warfare and simply renamed it tolerance warfare. I guess that could get author a speaking engagement somewhere. Nonetheless, a well written piece.

[AdamG]

You like asymmetry?

All it takes is a Bic lighter and some gumption.

With a long history of the terror group encouraging wildland arson, al-Qaeda supporters circulated a new poster through media channels highlighting "California burning."

"They will question you about the mountains. Say: 'My Lord will scatter them as ashes,'" says the text citing the Quran, imposed over news photos from the blazes.

The al-Qaeda propaganda comes shortly after one of the many media groups supporting ISIS operations online claimed that the deadly wildfires in northern and southern California are retribution for coalition bombings in Syria.

The image circulated online by Al-Ansar Media uses a photo of a burning building and misspelled the state "kalifornia."

https://pjmedia.com/homeland-securit...fornia-burning

[Bill Moore]

You like asymmetry?

All it takes is a Bic lighter and some gumption.


https://pjmedia.com/homeland-securit...fornia-burning

True, and you can't defend a forest. Every person must become a sensor, and when capable instead of "see something, say something," if you see something, do something. The population must be educated and mobilized to mitigate this type of threat. I recall Al-Qaeda making similar threats years ago, but the assumption is they wouldn't get any theater from clandestinely starting a fire so they wouldn't pursue it. Terrorism may or may not be theater, but warfare isn't, and not all acts of war waged by global insurgents need to be terrorist acts.

[AdamG]

Every person must become a sensor, and when capable instead of "see something, say something," if you see something, do something.

Would that your ideal was possible, in a nation where a significant minority can't drive from Point A to Point B (or even cross the street) in a safe manner, let alone have a modicum of Situational Awareness.

We live in the age of IDIOCRACY.

[AdamG]

You like asymmetry?

All it takes is a Bic lighter and some gumption.


https://pjmedia.com/homeland-securit...fornia-burning

Time for some cross-threading. http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...l=1#post212584

[davidbfpo]

General Nick Carter is the current CDS (roughly CJCS) and the post-holder makes an annual Xmas speech @ RUSI:https://rusi.org/event/annual-chief-...mas-party-2018

Via a Twitter recommendation I found this commentary, which says he did actually say something substantive near the start:

Regional powers, perceiving challenges that are clearer to them than perhaps are own are to us, continue every day to innovate to advance their own policy goals. This innovation, energised by a keen clarity of purpose, is being refined and given a competitive edge by constant activity and engagement.
The obvious response to this dynamism and the risk of being left-behind is as argued by General Carter in his speech – to “recreate the innovation and ingenuity seen in wartime”. We must do this, he argues, “if we are to succeed in this environment”.
(Later) The key strategic response is simple: it is to be as adaptive, to be as innovative – to out-compete. A culture that is receptive to innovation, that resources experimentation, and has in-place all the enabling factors General Carter lists, goes some way to achieving this.

Link:https://missivesfromwales.wordpress....s-rusi-speech/

[flagg]

General Nick Carter is the current CDS (roughly CJCS) and the post-holder makes an annual Xmas speech @ RUSI:https://rusi.org/event/annual-chief-...mas-party-2018

Via a Twitter recommendation I found this commentary, which says he did actually say something substantive near the start:
Link:https://missivesfromwales.wordpress....s-rusi-speech/

We just covered this last week when we were guests on the USAF l.Lab podcast:

https://www.548isr.com/podcast/2018/...e-adf-and-nzdf

Out-adapt and out-innovate should be added to our lexicon beside out-maneuver.

I stuffed up the 617 “dambuster” squadron #, calling it 688.

My partner and I discuss at length the tolerance for innovation risk in conflict compared to a camp environment and what we’re doing about it.

[davidbfpo]

Spotted that today that the UK House of Commons Select Committee on Defence has embarked on this inquiry.
Link to initial announcement:https://www.parliament.uk/business/c...-launch-17-19/

As they explain:

This inquiry will examine the danger posed by hybrid threats to the UK and how the UK Government is preparing its response.

Two written submissions by UK academics are available (I know both authors) via:https://www.parliament.uk/business/c...threats-17-19/