The convergence of these trends has created a crisis of national security for the United States—what some leading voices in the U.S. national security community have termed an emergency.
Across Eurasia, gray zone aggression is steadily undermining the security of U.S. allies and partners and eroding American influence.
Regional military balances in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Pacific have shifted in decidedly adverse ways. These trends are undermining deterrence of U.S. adversaries and the confidence of American allies, thus increasing the likelihood of military conflict. The
U.S. military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and loss of major capital assets in its next conflict. It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia. The United States is particularly at risk of being overwhelmed should its military be forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously. Additionally,
it would be unwise and irresponsible not to expect adversaries to attempt debilitating kinetic, cyber, or other types of attacks against Americans at home while they seek to defeat our military abroad.
U.S. military superiority is no longer assured and the implications for American interests and American security are severe.
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