The Helmand Province (merged thread, not UK or USMC)

[tulanealum]

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghan government troops repulsed a fresh attack late Tuesday by Taliban fighters massed outside the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah in southwestern Afghanistan and killed at least 18 of them, the provincial governor’s office said Wednesday.

NATO spokesmen said the attack, the second in four days on that city, underscored the growing abilities of the Taliban, who have increased the tempo of their attacks as the seventh anniversary of their ouster from power in Kabul approaches.

The Taliban threat has led to a wide-ranging review of war strategy in Washington and to insistent calls from American commanders for more troops.

For more: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/wo...gewanted=print

These attacks are interesting for a variety of reasons. First, they go against the Taliban's normal guerrilla warfare operating methods. Second, despite losing a lot of personnel during the first attack, the TB came back for more. Even though they are losing the battles, they appear to be scaring the crap out of the population in one of the only government held areas in Helmand...a place that was considered "safe." Despite losing the tactical battle, they could win the wider strategic IO battle on this...the people could lose more faith in the government, the security forces may become more scared and maybe they will look to change sides, and this could have second and third order effects on the population in urban and rural areas throughout southern and eastern Afghanistan. I'm not saying it's Tet, but on a small scale it could achieve some of the same things, at least in Helmand Province.

What are your thoughts?

[Tom Odom]

Honestly I am less concerned by their use of open attacks than I am by their use of parallel/shadow government. See:

Christian Science Monitor
October 15, 2008
Pg. 1

Shadow Government

Some Afghans Live Under Taliban Rule – And Prefer It

By Anand Gopal, Correspondent

Porak, Afghanistan - After a gang of thieves had continually terrorized an Afghan neighborhood near here months ago, locals decided they'd had enough. "We complained several times to the government and even showed them where the thieves lived," says Ahmad, who goes by one name.

But the bandits continued to operate freely. So the villagers turned to the Taliban.

The militants' parallel government here in Logar Province – less than 40 miles from Kabul

That said, such attacks do speak to a greater willingness to go head to head with the ANA. Hopefully the ANA will continue to meet the challenge.


Tom

[tulanealum]

Tom,

I don't think this is about going head to head...I think it's about trying to demonstrate that no place in the south is safe and to convince the population that the government can't protect them...I highlighted this because these attacks are occuring for a reason...not sure what it is, but it has been some time since a provincial capital has been attacked...and repeatedly...

If the attacks undermine the populations already low opinion of the GOA, then they are successful...and let's face it, the insurgency has more control in Helmand than the GOA does...

But, we'll see...

[Tom Odom]

Tom,

I don't think this is about going head to head...I think it's about trying to demonstrate that no place in the south is safe and to convince the population that the government can't protect them...I highlighted this because these attacks are occuring for a reason...not sure what it is, but it has been some time since a provincial capital has been attacked...and repeatedly...

If the attacks undermine the populations already low opinion of the GOA, then they are successful...and let's face it, the insurgency has more control in Helmand than the GOA does...

But, we'll see...

I would say we are in agreement. 2 attacks on the ANA serve as a real manifestation of a shadow government. I never worried about "mad mullahs"; I do worry about smart ones

Tom

[davidbfpo]

Thought since the UK is the 'lead' nation in Helmand Province, this BBC News story might help: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7671118.stm
and this one from a different angle: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7674435.stm

Note the mention of an Afghan policeman shooting an US soldier, in Paktia Province.

Cannot find reports elsewhere, partly as other news dominates.

davidbfpo

[DaveDoyle]

I haven't seen much detail on the recent story about the Afghan police member shooting at and killing an American soldier. I can attest to the fact that engagements between Afghan police and American forces (in many conditions, both day and night) in the Bermel District are not unommon.

The Afghan police in Paktika (part of RC East), and in Bermel specifically have been "infiltrated," as another story suggests, for many years. COL Pete Johnson, a man I have served with and respect enormously, must be trying to handle a delicate situation with the ANP by being diplomatic.

Here's a link to the 30 September attack from the LA Times -

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,1343024.story

Here's a link to the 15 October attack from CBC News in Canada -

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/1...ussoldier.html

[Entropy]

The Taliban tried going "head to head" with the non-afghan coalition in 06 & 07 and suffered heavy casualties whenever they tried to mass. Since then they've switched tactics to focus on the ANA. They've had more success there because air support to the ANA is slower and they aren't as proficient as western forces. There's some debate as to the Taliban (Quetta Shura) strategy: Either a concerted effort to take and hold terrain (ie. Musa Qala) or simply to show the ineffectiveness and, by extension, illegitimacy of the central government and coalition. It's probably both, depending on the situation.