Sri Lanka bombings Easter 2019 (catch all)

[Kevin23]

This is a curious series of attacks. First of all, multiple targets where the bombs went off around the same time and one sometime afterwards. Then there is the absence of anyone or any group claiming responsibility. Christians make up 7.5% of the population, which is very religious. So is this the work of one person planting the bombs?

I see the BBC report refers to suicide bombers:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48001720

For background:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lanka

The letter, citing foreign intelligence officials, identified the group suspected of planning attacks as National Thowheeth Jama’ath. It named individual members of the group, which it said advocates spreading Islam by killing “nonbelievers.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/21/w...fYgEfCT9XVd1Rs

Appears to be militant Jihadis.

[davidbfpo]

Understood, although no group claiming responsibility remains a fact. The Soufan Group's commentary might help, notably that such attacks have happened before and a small number if Islamists from Sri Lanka joined IS:https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbri...-in-sri-lanka/

[davidbfpo]

Two experts offer their insight, one via 'The New Yorker' magazine and they explain:

To discuss Sunday’s atrocities and the political situation in Sri Lanka, I spoke by phone with Amarnath Amarasingam, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue who studies extremism in Sri Lanka and the region. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed social media’s role in exacerbating ethnic conflict, concerns about Islamic extremist groups gaining a foothold in Sri Lanka, and the Buddhist majority’s “majority within the minority” complex.

Link:https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...pes-sri-lanka?

His bio:https://www.isdglobal.org/isd_team/amarnath-amrasingam/

Then there is Jason Burke, in 'The Observer' who adds context and some insight. A far degree of government chaos is apparent, although it appears the police quickly knew where to go - at some cost sadly.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/22/sri-lanka-bombings-islamist-group-blamed-but-focus-also-on-failure-of-security-forces?

[davidbfpo]

This thread was originally entitled: Sri Lanka bombings: 207 dead, hundreds injured in church, hotel explosions on Easter. It has now been renamed 'Sri Lanka bombings Easter 2019'. It was also in 'The Whole News' arena and has now been moved to the regional arena for South Asia.

There is an old thread on Sri Lanka where the focus was on defeating the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) in a war that ended ten years ago.

[davidbfpo]

Reading through reporting mainly via Twitter it appears most have accepted the claim of responsibility made by ISIS. Oddly IMHO this BBC News report is less convinced:

In the past, IS has sometimes claimed attacks that it was not involved in or which it simply inspired. But the details from IS would seem to back up the government's assessment.The choice of targets is much more in line with IS ideology than with the traditional types of communal violence seen in Sri Lanka.

A comment with far wider significance, with my emphasis in bold:

There are still questions - did the local men affiliate themselves to IS or receive direct support? Did they travel to Syria or to other countries? The Sri Lankan government has said it believes some of them had spent time abroad, but how significant was that to the plot?

Answering questions like these will be important not just for Sri Lanka but other countries as they try and understand whether other relatively small, locally focused groups could be capable of transforming a threat into violence on such a massive scale.

Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48028045


Then there are two US-based SME commentaries. From CFR a short Q&A 'Sri Lanka Bombings: What We Know?':https://www.cfr.org/article/sri-lank...s-what-we-know

A more comprehensive 'Lawfare' article by Daniel Byman:https://www.lawfareblog.com/attacks-...reign-fighters

[davidbfpo]

An Indian intelligence SME has commented on the known fact that a warning was passed by India to Sri Lanka, which apparently was not acted upon. Sadly Sri Lanka intelligence agencies have done this before:

In September 1994, we successfully intercepted an LTTE-coded message which clearly indicated that it was organising another assassination on the same lines as Rajiv Gandhi. The word ‘Gamini’ had appeared several times, the size of the waistcoat to be worn by the human bomb was specified, and even the venue, which was an election meeting. We assessed that it was meant against Gamini Dissenayaka (UNP) who was a presidential candidate in the October 1994 presidential elections after President Ranasinghe Premadasa was assassinated by the LTTE in 1993. We immediately conveyed the details to the Sri Lankan intelligence through approved channels.
But we were shocked when he was killed along with 50 others during an election meeting on October 24, 1994, in Colombo, on the same lines as Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. Ordinarily, a terrorist organisation changes the methods of operations after a major event to cover their tracks. But the LTTE was so brazen that it did not do so. It used the same method of operation to convey their HQ decision to assassinate Dissenayaka. We received no convincing reply from Colombo why our alert was not acted upon.

Link:https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/co...ng/762831.html

I know another SME has commented on Twitter that the named local group would - in his opinion - not locally be assessed as bomb attack capable.

(Added later). More details on the information discovered by India and provided. Plus the reaction in Sri Lanka.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lasts-sources?

[Kevin23]

An Indian intelligence SME has commented on the known fact that a warning was passed by India to Sri Lanka, which apparently was not acted upon. Sadly Sri Lanka intelligence agencies have done this before:
Link:https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/co...ng/762831.html

I know another SME has commented on Twitter that the named local group would - in his opinion - not locally be assessed as bomb attack capable.

(Added later). More details on the information discovered by India and provided. Plus the reaction in Sri Lanka.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lasts-sources?

Brookings recently a piece today in their morning Briefing echoing your opinion.

Sri Lanka, however, shows how a failure to prepare can be deadly. The country’s security services had considerable advance warning of a potential attack, including names, addresses and phone numbers of members of the suspected group involved in the attack. India reportedly provided considerable information based on its own Islamic State investigation. The Sri Lankan government even had warning that Catholic churches were among the possible targets. In case they were tempted to dismiss all this, weeks before the Easter attack, they found detonators, explosives and other clear indicators that attacks were being planned. What explains this remarkable intelligence and security failure is not yet clear. The Sri Lankan government itself was highly divided and information may not have been properly shared as a result. In addition, Sri Lanka’s historical focus was on Tamil terrorism rather than on Muslim-Christian violence. An investigation into the government’s handling of the attack is necessary to determine why the security services failed to act on what initial reports suggest was clear warning of an imminent attack.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order...ntent=72061007