May 2003 Iranian Offer

[redbullets]

It is my opinion that any lasting peace in the Middle East will NOT be the result of an Israeli-Palestinian solution, but rather a US-Iranian detente. We have created a de facto "pocket superpower" by knocking out Iraq as a polity, leaving only Iran. So now, I think it may be time to start eating the sh*t sandwich we've created, hold our collective noses and to build bridges with Iran.

Spot on.

Cheers,

[Ken White]

Khameini? Council of Guardians? Ahmadinejad and the Pasdaran? The Majlis?


The Iraniha aren't even talking to each other all that well.

Nor are they quite at the pocket superpower stage yet. That's not to say we shouldn't talk; just that no one should expect much.

[redbullets]

Maybe not, but they're sure enjoying a good run mucking up the plans of the sole remaining non-pocket superpower.

Cheers,

[Ken White]

Maybe not, but they're sure enjoying a good run mucking up the plans of the sole remaining non-pocket superpower.

Cheers,

They've been screwing with us since 1979. We encouraged it for over 20 years. They are a little more pushy now than they were,say, 10 years ago but not much. Not half as pushy as they were 25 years ago. Hezbollah has been tweaking us and Israel (among others) for that whole time, nothing new there.

They are messing with us in Iraq, true and which was not the case earlier but at some cost to themselves and they can't afford to lose too much there. Biggest possible worry is what they might contemplate doing here...

[cmetcalf82]

Ken,

Well I agree with you that Iran has been messing with us since 1979 I would argue that their direct involvement in Iraq and likely Afghanistan is quite a bit more aggressive than in the past since US soldiers are dying in the dozens each month based on their support to militias.

This does not preclude us from talking to them but must be kept in mind as we enter those discussions. Based on the recent details as reported in the major newspapers here in the US I am not sure how directly we are addressing their continued support for those organizations fighting in Iraq. Maybe it will require more than just arresting a couple of "alleged" Al Quods members to truly get the Iranians attention.

[Ken White]

we are just nearby now and thus are an easier target. Their influence in the area of Afghanistan where we are operating is insignificant. That of course is not the case in Iraq but the various factions who take potshots and pop IEDs at us would do so in the absence of any Iranian help.

As for a couple of Al Quds folks; there's quite a bit more to it than that.

We have been playing games with North Korea since 1953; both Kims played us like a fiddle. We've been doing the same thing with Iran since '79 and both Khomeini and Khameini have done almost as good a job as the Kims. Only in the last year have both nations come to realize that we are not playing that way any more. They won't quit, dreams of the Persian Empire and the greatness of Darius and Cyrus still occupy their imagination. They are great hagglers and will keep trying but they're a long way from being a major problem. In the ME, what is public makes little real difference -- it's the behind the scenes stuff that counts.

The salient thing being that one of the greatest insults one can give an Iranian is to call him and Arab -- the fact that the Arabs know this does not endear the Iraniha to them. The fact that, like the special hatred reserved for the Israelis due to their winning of all the previous wars, a special dislike is reserved for the Persians who in the long ago, tended to do the same thing. Only in the Gulf War did they not prevail, Saddam, badly outnumbered almost whipped 'em -- and that lack of competence hasn't been fixed.

The Iraqis (Shia AND Sunni) will cooperate with Iran to an extent, and vice versa, my cousin against my friend and such but they aren't going to get in bed together.

[Rex Brynen]

The difficult thing in dealing with Iran is the complex, divided, and often opaque nature of the decision-making process, especially on national security issues. During the Khatemi period it wasn't unusual to see the IRGC (Revolutionary Goards) and MOIS (Ministry of Intelligence and Security) running off and doing things that both the President and Ministry of Foreign Affairs people had no idea of. Even now (with a hardliner as President) the MFA and the IRGC/MOIS seem to running entirely different policies in Afghanistan.

Ahh, the foreign policy challenges caused by an ideological leadership, large national security establishment, bureaucratic politics, and a government system based on a complex system of constitutional checks and balances

Back in the Khatemi days, and through 2001-04, I think it probably was possible to do a deal with Iran on shared strategic interests. Now I doubt it (although its still worth engaging in dialogue).