Drama in the Persian Gulf (Tehran gets uppity)

[JWing]

Tehran And Its Iraqi Allies Respond Asymmetrically To Trump Admin’s Iran Policy

[davidbfpo]

A French newspaper article by a Canadian journalist familiar with the region; useful as gives a comprehensive overview of the region and more. After the recent White House announcement this is topical:

Yet, countries under sanctions rarely concede to ‘outside interference’, ‘imperialist pressure’ or ‘economic terrorism’. As an instrument of national power, the imposition of sanctions is a blunt tool that achieves little other than privation and enmity.

(Later) While the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign is significantly damaging the economy and causing suffering among ordinary Iranians, it has not altered Iran’s campaign of ‘maximum resistance’ — if anything, it has strengthened Iranian resolve to resist.

Link:https://mondediplo.com/outsidein/us-...by-other-means

[davidbfpo]

An IISS commentary that opens with:

Iran has been engaged in a steady and escalating series of hostile acts in recent months. As John Raine explains, the principal messages behind them are ones of defiance and capability.

Link:https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/...n-in-the-gulf?

[davidbfpo]

The rather pessimistic title comes from a 'Foreign Affairs' article (commended via Twitter and only the opening is free to view) and the article opens with:

With each passing day, the United States and Iran draw each other deeper into conflict. So far, they have stopped short of war. But the likelihood of an armed conflict increases with every additional provocation, whether it is an attack on a civilian tanker ship or another round of sanctions.

Link:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-06-28/us-and-iran-are-marching-toward-war?

Just who is going to join in? There is this rather unusual statement from Mossad:

Israel and U.S.-aligned Arab countries have a unique chance to forge a regional peace deal given their shared worries about Iran, the chief of Israel’s Mossad spy service said on Monday.

Link:https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-is...-idUKKCN1TW2LI

Paul Rogers explains the potential for the UK being involved, alongside Oman and Qatar. He also notes this rather large movement of USAF explosives to a munitions depot in the UK, near to a RAF base used - at times - by USAF strategic bombers:

Also relevant is one of the largest US Air Force munitions stockpile sites in Europe at RAF Welford, 35 km southeast of Fairford, in Berkshire. It may just be a coincidence that last month a US Air Force unit moved a substantial quantity of munitions from the United States through a port of entry, reported to be Newport in South Wales, to Welford. In this five-day operation, the largest of its kind for a decade, 71 trucks moved 121 containers with 450,000 lb (204,000 kg) net explosive weight.

Link:https://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org....tish-dimension

May be just a routine matter that move. I think not.

[davidbfpo]

Does this strange story, originally in a Kuwaiti paper and now on National Interest's website have an effect on the current situation?

It starts with:

Iranian Air Force commander Brigadier General Farzad Ismaili, who had been in office since 2010, has been fired by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after he kept secret that Israeli Air Force (IAF) F-35 stealth fighters had violated Iran’s airspace, the Kuwaiti daily Al Jarida reported on Saturday. The newspaper emphasized that it was the original media source that exposed the Israeli raids, which had taken place in March 2018.

The most puzzling sentence is this, with my bold:

According to Al Jarida, Iranian intelligence received top secret information that the Israeli fighter planes even managed to photograph Iran’s underground bases. Khamenei, who received this information, now suspects a cooperation between Russia and Israel, and that the Russians gave Israel the secret code of the Russian radar in Iran – according to the Kuwaiti newspaper.

Link:https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...-iran-airspace

[davidbfpo]

A pessimistic story which concludes:

The bottom line: It’d be hell on earth

Link:https://www.vox.com/world/2019/7/8/1...p-nuclear-iraq

[davidbfpo]

Two articles I caught today. A 'Long Read' in the NYRB by two SME and the title almost gives away their view 'Iran: The Case Against War'. Curiously they end with:

At this point, even senior Israeli officials—who have backed the United States’ aggressive courtship of Saudi Arabia and confrontation with Iran—have become concerned about American bellicosity and myopia, and are loath to be seen as encouraging a US–Iran military confrontation.⁷ The Israelis have no doubt started to consider the long-term regional impact of a war between the US and Iran. Their change of heart should be a warning that US policy is spinning out of control.

Link:https://www.nybooks.com/articles/201...e-against-war/

Then a shorter, hostile interpretation of the British role, starting with the seizure of an Iranian tanker off Gibraltar and now a likely riposte with a UK flagged tanker being sized in the Gulf. A few here have noted the public silence of the EU after the Gibraltar seizure by the EU, ostensibly the tanker breached EU sanctions.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...wk-john-bolton