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Thread: Beijing’s Doctrine on the Conduct of “Irregular Forms of Warfare”

  1. #21
    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffC View Post
    If the NSA's responsibility is that widespread, then somebody needs to step up their game.

    Have you seen this?

    http://idolator.typepad.com/intelfus...ke-fema-i.html
    Yeppers. I read the GAO reports and actually have a paper in process about it and a few other topics. I'm trying to ascertain if they really care. A few pundits are starting to talk about security as "alarmist". Do you ever read IEEE Privacy and Security?
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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default Chinese spies in the West

    An analysis of numerous cases leads to the conclusion that China has shifted its tactics in recruiting citizens of Western countries.

    By ANDREI CHANG
    HONG KONG, April 18 (UPI) -- China's intelligence agency has reinforced its infiltration activities in Europe, North America, Japan and Russia in recent years.

    Beijing has abandoned the traditional approach of ideological persuasion, turning instead to the use of blackmail, women and money -- quite similar to the practices employed by the former Soviet Union's KGB and the former East German Intelligence Agency. A series of "massage salon" incidents involving Japanese diplomats in Beijing and Shanghai are typical examples.

    At the same time, the targets of recruitment by Chinese intelligence agents are switching from ethnic Chinese to local personnel of mainstream society who work in core government departments.

    There is credible evidence that the large number of community organizations that have emerged in Chinese communities in the United States and Canada are actually receiving financial support from the Chinese embassies and consulates.

    Then who do these people really work for? The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Canadian Intelligence Service might find the answer of interest.

    Readers of this article can test this for themselves by obtaining the name card of a Chinese journalist or diplomat responsible for education, and calling the office of his or her media or institution in Beijing. After numerous such tests, experiences and observations, this author's conclusion is that the number of Chinese spies who work in the United States and Canada is much larger than the number who worked for the former Soviet KGB.
    Much more at the link...
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

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    Default The correct interpretation of Unrestricted Warfare

    Coming from an approach of studying Chinese philosophy, there are a couple of points that I consistently see military folks getting wrong about Unrestricted Warfare, the 1999 piece by two PLA colonels that predicted 9/11. One of the authors was a specialist in Chinese literature, and there are references to philosophy sprinkled throughout the text (one of the chapter names is a reference to Dao De Jing, Daoism's seminal work) so I think this angle is an important one.

    1. One shouldn't take it only at a literal level. If you compare this to works like Mao Zedong's On Guerrilla Warfare, and Sun Zi's Art of War, there a couple different levels to it. Whereas you might be able to learn from On Guerrilla Warfare if you're a Communist, or Islamist, and anyone else, and ignore the overall ideological message, it would be hard to look at that work and totally ignore its connection to Communism. Likewise, The Art of War can be applied to a multitude of situations, but you won't understand it totally without also understanding its grounding in Daoism and Confucianism. There's been a lot of discussion about the connection between 9/11, along with cyber warfare and a few other relatively restricted topics, with Unrestricted Warfare. That's not wrong, but I think it misses the overall message of the work: the power that comes from being seen as having been oppressed. This was why Bin Laden was such a potent example. I suspect though, because of this larger point, this piece would have become an important work with or without 9/11 - all the more because of its subtlety.

    2. Along those lines, being a political doctrine, this work has interesting things to say about Chinese intentions and strategy, not just tactics. The essence of Mao's piece was that China was in a weak position. You could say, in effect, it was an interpretation of Sun Zi for a specific situation. Now China is not as weak. It's clear from works like Unrestricted Warfare, as well as On Guerrilla Warfare that China sees its advantage in asymmetrical warfare. In that sense, nothing's changed - except that China's situation in the world has. This is where it gets a little speculative, but I think you can trace the roots of Unrestricted Warfare back to Sun Zi, as well as Mao Zedong, who would have said that you need to create the advantageous situation, even if it doesn't naturally exist. So the point is not just to use asymmetric warfare when necessary, but to keep yourself as the underdog, so that it asymmetric warfare will become necessary. This, in my opinion, is how China complains about American economic mismanagement, when it was also Chinese economic mismanagement that helped cause the financial crisis. That may have been part of the plan all along. China can justify taking actions that might make it financially worse off (along with the US), because of the political doctrine of 'underdogism.'

    In general, I find that it's much more useful to study Chinese classics to understand contemporary China than it is to study the Soviet or Japanese systems. Political ideology, in the sense that we use the word (involving a reason why a particular set of rulers might be better for the citizens than any other set, and a specific set of policies, besides just 'everything that's good') was just a 'weapon' used by Mao. There's nothing fundamental about it in China.
    Last edited by orange dave; 11-28-2009 at 12:55 AM.
    The Sage King does not take pleasure in using the army. He mobilizes it to execute the violently perverse and punish the rebellious. Using righteousness to execute unrighteous is like releasing the pent-up river to douse a torch, or pushing a person teetering at the edge of a cliff. Success if inevitable. War is not a good thing: it damages many things, and it is something Heaven cannot accommodate. It should only be a last resort, and only then will it accord with Heaven.

    -Huang Shi Gong

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Mao was a student of Clausewitz, far more than he was Sun-Tzu, and the usefulness of Sun-Tzu very much depends on your understanding of what Bing-Fa actually means ("Soldiers Methods" or "Strategy". - Certainly not War)

    If you've read Clausewitz, you can drop "Unrestricted Warfare" in the bin. I actually gave my copy away, as it took up valuable space on the shelf. The .pdf is good enough.
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    the usefulness of Sun-Tzu very much depends on your understanding of what Bing-Fa actually means ("Soldiers Methods" or "Strategy". - Certainly not War)
    Well, yes, my point exactly. The interesting part about Chinese strategy is that they often try to bundle the strategy and the propaganda - including sometimes the philosophy about how a country should be run - all up into one. By studying the strategy, you can get a more subtle sense of the logic behind the propaganda. The propaganda is important when you're thinking about questions like "would China sabotage its own financial interests to harm the US?" For any country to do such a thing, propaganda would have to be the central feature of the operation.

    (BTW, Bing Fa doesn't mean "strategy." "Soldiers' methods" is a good literal translation. I believe originally it was just called Sun Zi, after the author, until somebody decided it needed a real name.)

    If you've read Clausewitz, you can drop "Unrestricted Warfare" in the bin. I actually gave my copy away, as it took up valuable space on the shelf. The .pdf is good enough.
    You read something like this as a primary document - in terms of what's missing, not just what's present. Whether or not it's useful for other situations as well is secondary. For instance, there's no mention of 'soft power' at all in Unrestricted Warfare, even though that would fit squarely into its logic of non-technology based power. One would guess, based on its track record and popularity, that UW has the ear of Chinese strategists, so you can make conclusions from there.
    The Sage King does not take pleasure in using the army. He mobilizes it to execute the violently perverse and punish the rebellious. Using righteousness to execute unrighteous is like releasing the pent-up river to douse a torch, or pushing a person teetering at the edge of a cliff. Success if inevitable. War is not a good thing: it damages many things, and it is something Heaven cannot accommodate. It should only be a last resort, and only then will it accord with Heaven.

    -Huang Shi Gong

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by orange dave View Post
    BTW, Bing Fa doesn't mean "strategy." "Soldiers' methods" is a good literal translation. I believe originally it was just called Sun Zi, after the author, until somebody decided it needed a real name.
    Well aware, the point is, in the context he writes, "Soldiers Methods" is explicitly "Strategy" - the use of force to attain a political goal. I former PLA Colonel, I met in London, assured me that no-one in the PLA ever refers to the book as the "The Art of War." - and that the Griffith translation has substantial errors. He recommended the RL Wing translation as being the most accurate.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    One more thing. As I mentioned earlier, asymmetric warfare is only a small part of UW, being just one of eight points mentioned in the conclusion. Another one of the eight is minimal consumption. This is important because, as I see it, it's North Korea's most important strategy against the US. I was wondering if there are any Western theorists that address this aspect of warfare - which is obviously more complicated than just describing it, because there are problems like how you sell these sorts of policies to the people, and so on. I'm asking because I don't know; I might be proven wrong on this point.
    The Sage King does not take pleasure in using the army. He mobilizes it to execute the violently perverse and punish the rebellious. Using righteousness to execute unrighteous is like releasing the pent-up river to douse a torch, or pushing a person teetering at the edge of a cliff. Success if inevitable. War is not a good thing: it damages many things, and it is something Heaven cannot accommodate. It should only be a last resort, and only then will it accord with Heaven.

    -Huang Shi Gong

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by orange dave View Post
    One more thing. As I mentioned earlier, asymmetric warfare is only a small part of UW, being just one of eight points mentioned in the conclusion. Another one of the eight is minimal consumption. This is important because, as I see it, it's North Korea's most important strategy against the US.
    What do you "asymmetric warfare?" and "UW?" I do not believe either of these descriptions are either accurate, true or useful.

    As concerns "minimal consumption," would this more accurately described as "economy of force", as in the many western nations so-called "Principles of War." - another idea I do not buy into anyway.

    I was wondering if there are any Western theorists that address this aspect of warfare - which is obviously more complicated than just describing it, because there are problems like how you sell these sorts of policies to the people, and so on. I'm asking because I don't know; I might be proven wrong on this point.
    What aspect? Lots of people claim to have insights in Asymmetric Warfare and UW, but 99% are paper thin and melt like mist in sun, when subject to academic rigour.
    Selling policies would not really be an area of warfare in my book. I think there a lot of people trying to make this all appear very complicated, because it makes them look smart and gets them consultancy.

    Sorry if this is not answering the exam question, but as bear of small brain, I'm not sure I may have understood your question correctly.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Selling policies would not really be an area of warfare in my book. I think there a lot of people trying to make this all appear very complicated, because it makes them look smart and gets them consultancy.
    Small Wars quote of the week material

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    Default How to avoid the trap

    Read this Foreign Affairs article, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...chinas-dilemma and then read the PLA document from …. 1999!!
    "Chinese Unrestricted Warfare" (Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui)
    www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf

    Page 6 of this document says:
    When people begin to lean toward and rejoice in the reduced use of military force to resolve conflicts, war will be reborn in another form and in another arena, becoming an instrument of enormous power in the hands of all those who harbour intentions of controlling other countries or regions.
    Put this together with “The Tyranny of Metaphor” document http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ny_of_metaphor

    This document, a must read!, talks about three enduring illusions (mis)leading the USA White House policy (and maybe this is not an USA privilege), one of which:
    A belief in the surefire effectiveness of military strength in containing opponents, whatever their ability to threaten the US.
    Now have a look a the Chinese effort in Africa, in the Mediterranean countries (Greece, Italy) and in Afghanistan (analyze where this effort consists of, just read HOW China is influencing behavior)) and compare this with the current Western “non-comprehensive military solution”.

    China is pumping a massive amount of money and support in the form of infrastructure like medical facilities into Afghanistan. The cooperation between China and Africa has grown with an enormous speed (for instance: building a huge road network in Kenya). China is helping the deteriorating Greek economy (China will double their 5 Billion trade with Greece in the coming 5 years and will support the extension of Greece harbor facilities).

    “Cosco”, a Chinese company, has a close cooperation with the Greece Piraeus harbor and shows interest in the Thessaloniki harbor. China sees these harbors as the “gateway to Europe”. The economical gateway.
    Italy and Turkey will be the next countries to be embraced by China’s economic support.

    Wouldn’t it be interesting to analyze this all beginning with the Why question? Followed by Why and How “other powers” can “blend in”, including these steps as part of “their” own strategy? Why should “we” shape conditions to support the Chinese economic growth? How can this “strategy” be beneficial for “us”. Why?

    Let´s have a look at the PLA document again, page 189:
    All of these things are rendering more and more obsolete the idea of confining warfare to the military domain and of using the number of casualties as a means of the intensity of a war. Warfare is now escaping from the boundaries of bloody massacre, and exhibiting a trend towards low casualties, or even none at all, and yet high intensity. This is information warfare, financial warfare, trade warfare, and other entirely new forms of war, new areas opened up in the domain of warfare. In this sense, there is now no domain which warfare cannot use, and there is almost no domain which does not have warfare's offensive pattern.
    In August Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivered a prominent speech warning that China’s economy and national modernization process would be jeopardized if the country failed to undertake systemic political reform.

    Broadening the FA article I would suggest that now Europe and the United States should persist in seeking common ground on issues such as energy, global trade and finance, and regional security while continuing to reassure Beijing that the “West” does not oppose the growth of a peaceful China.

    So, how to support China with their domestic political reform?

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    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-01-2011 at 06:54 PM. Reason: Use quote marks and PM to author

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobSentse View Post
    ... and then read the PLA document from …. 1999!!
    "Chinese Unrestricted Warfare" (Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui)
    www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf

    .....This document, a must read!,
    It's a "why bother read?" IMO, it's very contestable and I really doubt the two authors had the appropriate levels of knowledge to write it. The whole thing reads like a paper written by students. I don't know many folks who take it seriously.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Council Member Backwards Observer's Avatar
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    Default projections of pandamonium

    Here are some folks who take it seriously.

    Are CHINA and the UNITED STATES headed for WAR?
    Yes, say bestselling authors Jed Babbin (former deputy undersecretary of defense) and Edward Timperlake (veteran defense analyst) in this riveting new book that takes you from the latest developments in China’s quest to become a superpower to the possible battlefields of what might become World War III.

    Babbin and Timperlake unveil China’s aggressive military buildup (more rapid than that of Nazi Germany before World War II) and expose how China is engaging in a new Cold War aimed at expanding its commercial and military reach at the expense of the United States. Babbin (a former Air Force JAG) and Timperlake (a former Marine fighter pilot) do more than offer expert analysis. In dramatic Clancy-esque style, they take you into the field with Navy SEALs and Air Force bomber pilots, invite you inside the war councils at the White House and the Pentagon, and peer within China’s own Politburo in an exciting—and all too likely—series of war scenarios.

    In Showdown, Babbin and Timperlake reveal:

    * The unholy alliance between Communist China and radical Islam—and a possible war over Middle Eastern oil
    * How China is infiltrating Latin America—including oil-rich Venezuela—to create an anti-American axis
    * How a Chinese attack on Taiwan could spark the biggest war in the Pacific since World War II
    * The vulnerability of Japan and the United States to Chinese cyber-warfare
    * The likelihood of a second Korean War . . . only this time, the madmen in North Korea have nuclear weapons

    As Babbin and Timperlake make clear, China is the greatest—and most dangerously ignored—threat to America’s national security. If America does not deter China’s aggressive ambitions, the result could be global war. Provocative, thrilling, and must-reading, Showdown is a wake-up call for America.
    From the editorial blurb for:Showdown: Why China Wants War With The United States - Amazon

    Also:

    U.S. Intelligence Council Reading List

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    Council Member Backwards Observer's Avatar
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    Just by coincidence, well let's say coincidence, immediately following my previous post, I read this passage in Carl Sagan's, The Demon Haunted World:

    We know from early work of the Canadian neurophysiologist Wilder Penfield that electrical stimulation of certain regions of the brain elicits full-blown hallucinations. People with temporal lobe epilepsy—involving a cascade of naturally generated electrical impulses in the part of the brain beneath the forehead —experience a range of hallucinations almost indistinguishable from reality: including the presence of one or more strange beings, anxiety, floating through the air, sexual experiences, and a sense of missing time. There is also what feels like profound insight into the deepest questions and a need to spread the word. A continuum of spontaneous temporal lobe stimulation seems to stretch from people with serious epilepsy to the most average among us. (p.115)
    Not saying there's any connection, but it seems prudent to spuriously link unrelated information for some sort of effect these days.

    The Demon Haunted World - Amazon

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backwards Observer View Post
    Here are some folks who take it seriously.
    Many take it seriously. Very few of them are men I respect on matters of warfare. Most of what gets written about future warfare turns out to be utter rubbish. The next war is usually very like the last war, fought somewhere on he planet.
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    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Most of what gets written about future warfare turns out to be utter rubbish.
    In my case, I blame open "sauce" warfare.

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    It's worth remembering that the US did not supplant Great Britain by defeating her in war; also that Great Britain was able to hand off the baton to a (relatively) trusted ally.

    China today is operating much as the US did in the first half of the last century, building economic and military influence behind the scenes and under the protection of European colonial endeavors; only emerging once that burden broke the back of the latter. WWII expedited that transition.

    Is GWOT similarly expediting the transition from the US to China? That and our clinging to expensive containment strategies? China has to get a good chuckle over how they can spend a dollar in capabilities to threaten Taiwan, and get the US to spend $1000 to counter it; meanwhile they expand their global economic influence under US security much as the US did under Great Britain's security (most notably how we got the Saudi oil development contract).

    China studies carefully how the US rose to power, perhaps more carefully than we ourselves have. The chapter on the Cold War prevailing over the Soviet Union is a chapter that gets close attention, and China is working diligently to do to the US much as what we did to the Soviets. The Soviets probably get a good chuckle on that one as well.

    Good news is that it is not too late for the US to change course. The one thing that China cannot change is the growing pressure between various sects and classes within their own country. The greater their success, the greater those pressures will become. The U.S. may well be saved, not by the smart actions we take abroad, but rather by the actions China fails to take at home. The bad news is that, unlike Great Britain, the US will not be handing off to little brother. We can not hope to fare as well in the transition.
    Robert C. Jones
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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    China studies carefully how the US rose to power, perhaps more carefully than we ourselves have. The chapter on the Cold War prevailing over the Soviet Union is a chapter that gets close attention, and China is working diligently to do to the US much as what we did to the Soviets. The Soviets probably get a good chuckle on that one as well.
    Who knows. Maybe and so what? Having spent two years hanging around folks who claimed to be studying "Chinese Military Power," I found most of them to be utterly unreliable and to have a very poor knowledge of military affairs.

    Fact is you can make a lot of money writing evidence free scary stuff about the Chinese military. That doesn't make any of it good or useful.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Oh, I agree. It is not the chinese military we need to worry about. That is just the flashy red cape. The Matador has other ways to deal with those who draw too much confidence from their great size and power, but that are easily distracted by such ploys.
    Robert C. Jones
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    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    China studies carefully how the US rose to power, perhaps more carefully than we ourselves have. The chapter on the Cold War prevailing over the Soviet Union is a chapter that gets close attention, and China is working diligently to do to the US much as what we did to the Soviets.
    You better believe it! In particular they have studied President Lincoln and his "Greenback" policy on money! They are following what would have been Reconstruction in the South(series of internal improvements) if Lincoln hadn't been shot.

  20. #40
    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Who knows. Maybe and so what? Having spent two years hanging around folks who claimed to be studying "Chinese Military Power," I found most of them to be utterly unreliable and to have a very poor knowledge of military affairs.

    Fact is you can make a lot of money writing evidence free scary stuff about the Chinese military. That doesn't make any of it good or useful.
    Come on Wilf that isn't nearly up to your normal level of quality post. I read too, and a lot on Chinese military history. I see poorly written fearful diatribes based on ethnocentrism rather than realistic risk aversion too.

    You'll have to define "Define Chinese Military Power" for me though. What you call it likely isn't what the Chinese call it. I also don't see why making money has to be a point to denigrate authors either (everybody knows I don't make any money writing).

    The Chinese don't see their military as their primary source of power. They see their population size and education level as a primacy of power. Watch Chinese television for a few weeks and the internal dialog they are having is much simpler than most people seem to believe. The inscrutable Chinese general is remarkably absent from all but Chinese soap operas.

    I see deep divides between western expectations and Chinese realizations. I agree with you Wilf, that most western writing is poorly executed when Chinese sophistication stops with Sun Tzu. I'm just not sure why you popped off on the document "Unrestricted Warfare". The authors have given talks in the United States, there are numerous translations, and some are fairly poor. It is a government level document and I have never read one from any any country that didn't read like a grade school primer. So why the hostility?
    Sam Liles
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