Wargaming Small Wars (merged thread)

[Surferbeetle]

I am currently in CGSC and a SAMS selectee. Deployment experience and now the word of academics has led me to believe the Army no longer has a viable model for wargaming for stabilization / counter-insurgent operations. The linear process is no longer feasible given the number of variables, threats, competitors, etc. (i.e. action, reaction, counteraction is a thing of the past).

I am beginning my thesis research in this area of wargaming. Specifically looking at a model that provides an idea of what questions should be looked at. Honestly, I am not convinced that wargaming is feasible given the complexity of influences along a given LOE.

Thoughts and perspective would be appreciated.

Hi John,

Simulations and models are pretty powerful tools as long as we keep in mind that they are simplifying and incomplete representations of reality (perhaps comparable to Bertrand Russell's table).

SWC threads How to Win and Mathematics of War have some interesting points on the why's and how's of simulations. These post's (here and here) on concepts examined by others have sparked some thoughts.

I enjoy making simple models in excel (on occasion I also use mathcad & mathematica but it's rare) for engineering work and financial modeling. I enjoyed using the commercial simulations offered to us in mba school, and sometimes work with HEC-RAS while dabbling with HEC-HMS, Arcview and AutoCAD Civil 3D.

This is a thesis that I am exploring here at SWC. (Since that post I am presently defining War as being composed of various TTP, or warfare types, i.e. Conventional warfare, COIN warfare, etc. and have not changed my views that the nature of war is constant throughout these TTP).

The Jan/Feb 2010 edition of the Atlantic discusses military simulations in the article SimCity Baghdad by Brian Mockenhaupt.

Lieutenant Colonels Matthew Moore and Kevin Mindak repaired the airport, the bus terminal, and the water-treatment plant. They silenced three insurgent groups and won the support of many in Al-Hamra’. But the mayor, Anwar Sadiq, still spoke out against the U.S. Army battalion stationed in his town.

Steve