Well, it looks like Joe Miranda and the boys are going to tackle simulating the COIN problem in a much bigger way. This new company, MODERN CONFLICT STUDIES GROUP (MCS Group) claims that:

Traditional defense paradigms have proven inadequate to analyze these threats because these paradigms emphasize force on force and attrition based modeling without adequate regard for terrorism, infowar, and insurgency.

Fourth Generation Warfare, with its emphasis on networking and advanced technologies, makes it difficult to predict when new conflicts will break out, and for conventional militaries to formulate counter-strategies. Current events in the Persian Gulf demonstrate how the Western Revolution in Military Affairs can be stymied by insurgents who fight using asymmetrical strategies and tactics. Simulations must address not only the period of conventional conflict in a war, but also the run-up prior to major military operations, and the post campaign occupation phase.

These challenges have not been adequately addressed by the existing simulations industry.

Until now.
Check out the new MODERN CONFLICT STUDIES GROUP website here. You can see some information about two games under development--both, interestingly enough--are board wargames. BATTLE FOR BAGHDAD is perhaps the most immediately interesting of the two and if the board is any indication, will be a hoot to play. However, ADVANCED MILLENIUM WARS looks very promising as a system, particularly in modeling how inadequate conventional military forces are in a COIN environment.