I would argue that while any partitioning Iraq would be messy and bloody but so is the current situation. Some form of ethnic partitioning is probably the only way to bring any form of stability to the region, short of restoring a ruthless dictatorship. I think the real choice is not between a untied or a divided Iraq, but rather between a terrible ending and a never ending terror.
But would partition create stability? as I said before, sunni and Kurdish parts would be landlocked. How would they export oil and import stuff? By making agreement with either shi'ia parts or some neighbour. which would leave them at their long term mercy. so when shi'ias would want to squeeze sunnis all they would have to do would be impose embargo on them. Nothing gets out, nothing gets in. Then what? Either sunnis give in to their demands or go to war. First one creates resentment that is likely to lead to war, second one is war. None of which brings stability.Originally Posted by Stu-6
Historic-Battles forum moderator
You'd be surprised how many Kurds understand how much they need a unified Iraq (say at least over the next 20 years) in order to continue to move ahead. They understand regional politics and regional fears better then we do.
Coalition folks will often point to the "map" of Kurdistan you can buy in Dohok or Irbil which includes parts of Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria. People will often tell you how there are more Kurds in Iran and Turkey then in Iraq, and how that indicates a kind of “manifest destiny”. I think we are coloring that perception some with our own cultural proclivity and historical ref. – we are impatient so the rest of the world must be as well.
The Kurds are not in a rush to failure. I believe they are prudently trying to improve their position from a domestic point of view by arguing for Kirkuk, or buy consolidating some of the gains they have made over the last 5 years and some of the political compromises they have arranged to improve both Kurdish internal and "other" external relationships. Since the people they are primarily engaged with range from Arabs, to Turks to Persians, I'd say they are pretty open minded about what provides them leverage - they are businessmen in that sense. Even with Iran occasionally shelling into Sulimaniya, and the fighting on the Turkish / Iraqi border - they still trade and enter into agreements with those states and their citizens.
They understand that eventually we will leave and they will still have to live in the neighborhood. I think its useful as well to consider the strange relationship between Pakistan and India - one where they were able to exchange fire in the Kashmir Valley, but one where at the same time the President of Pakistan could fly to Delhi to observe a crikett match (read some of Eric Margolis' War at the Top of the World)
Perhaps the best way I heard of describing Kurdistan in its current form is to compare it with Texas - while abroad if you ask a Texan where he is from does he reply - "I'm American", or "I'm from Texas"?
That was one of the things I had a hard time rationalizing being both a foreigner and a transient - What would I do if I were Iraqi (or an Iraqi Kurd)and trying to consider the future?
I believe any discussion around partition or political longevity of Iraq as a state, the various peoples, nations (as an Identity) first needs to be taken from the perspective of is its survivability; and that I'd argue is in large part a matter of indigenous perception and will. It matters less if we think its a good idea, our perceptions are colored by a bias to find a solution we're comfortable with.
You can argue that we are the bill payer and therefore have earned at least an equal vote. While that is true (outside of the Iraqis), the question is what are we trying to purchase, and how much are we willing to pay. While a long drawn out political maturation is messy and costly, it may in the end keep us from having to pay more by further regional intervention down the road, or keep us from waking up the next day and finding out we bought a lemon.
Legit point, but there are other landlocked states out there, it can be done. Solutions can be found perhaps through Jordan or Syria. I guess in my opinion in comes down to the fact that the current situation is definitely unstable, a partition is possibly unstable.
The Brookings Institution, Jun 07: The Case for Soft Partition in Iraq
The time may be approaching when the only hope for a more stable Iraq is a soft partition of the country. Soft partition would involve the Iraqis, with the assistance of the international community, dividing their country into three main regions. Each would assume primary responsibility for its own security and governance, as Iraqi Kurdistan already does. Creating such a structure could prove difficult and risky. However, when measured against the alternatives—continuing to police an ethno-sectarian war, or withdrawing and allowing the conflict to escalate—the risks of soft partition appear more acceptable. Indeed, soft partition in many ways simply responds to current realities on the ground, particularly since the February 2006 bombing of the Samarra mosque, a major Shi’i shrine, dramatically escalated intersectarian violence. If the U.S. troop surge, and the related effort to broker political accommodation through the existing coalition government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki fail, soft partition may be the only means of avoiding an intensification of the civil war and growing threat of a regional conflagration. While most would regret the loss of a multi-ethnic, diverse Iraq, the country has become so violent and so divided along ethno-sectarian lines that such a goal may no longer be achievable....
Voting with their feet?
Gentlemen,
Just from what I read in the news, it seems that there is already alot of ethnic cleansing going on in Iraq. There won't be any need for a formal or informal partition of the country if that continues. It will be partitioned through people voting with their feet, not from some agreement on a piece of paper.
It is beyond my forecasting ability to predict how this phenomenon will affect regional or internal security. But the current effort in Iraq is inexorably leading to this, whether intended or not.
I don't see the Maliki government being able to appeal to all the groups/sects/tribes. Does anybody have confidence in it, either here in Iraq? It just seems to me that the Alawi government had more of a secular vibe to it, with leaders taking a more national perspective.
Our political leaders might eventually be tempted to overthrow the Maliki government, thinking it just won't happen with him in charge. JFK felt that way about Diem, and nothing that followed seemed any better in Vietnam, which was already divided in two.
No signature required, my handshake is good enough.
CSIS, 9 Oct 07: Pandora’s Box: Iraqi Federalism, Separatism, “Hard” Partitioning, and US Policy
A debate has developed over whether the US should try to legislate Iraqi federalism and encourage some form of “soft partitioning.” It is time to take a much harder look at the facts in Iraq, at just how “hard” partitioning has already been, and at the dangers any form of federalism or partitioning can have unless they are achieved as the result of some form of Iraqi accommodation that can minimize the years of turbulence and instability that could follow any form of sectarian and ethnic division.
Some formal political division of Iraq’s population may take place as a result of force, intimidation, and other factors causes by the insurgency and Iraq’s civil conflicts, but planning and managing it in any orderly way will be incredibly difficult for Iraq’s leaders and the Iraqi government, and is not something the US should overtly encourage.
No one can deny that Iraq is already dividing along sectarian and ethnic lines in many areas. This process, however, has been forced upon Iraq’s population by its violent extremists rather than by popular will, and Iraq’s Kurds are the only faction in Iraq that show major popular support any formal effort at partitioning. The term “Soft Partitioning” has also been shown to be a cruel oxymoron. Virtually every aspect of sectarian and ethnic struggle to date has been brutal, and come at a high economic cost to those affected. The reality is that partitioning must be described as “hard” by any practical political, economic, and humanitarian standard.....
Iraq does not need to be partitioned. The whole middle east needs to be redrawn. This new of the middle east seems reasonable - i support it.
http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/xm..._map_after.JPG
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