U.S. policy toward Pakistan since September 11, 2001 has made its president, General Pervez Musharraf, indispensable. This is unfortunate -- and leaves us unprepared for rapid political change in a complex, nuclear-armed state of 165 million people.
Our business-as-usual approach has run up against a dynamic situation in Pakistan. The protests inspired by Musharraf's sidelining of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry have turned violent, dissatisfaction with Pakistan's government and its legacy of official impunity is growing, and social, economic and regional divisions are not being addressed.
Rumors abound that Musharraf will declare martial law and suspend elections scheduled for the fall, or that he is negotiating a power-sharing arrangement with Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party. Military leaders in Pakistan, however, have a limited shelf life, and the U.S. government should be prepared for an unexpected transition ...
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