He will not win the election unless the army decides to fix it for him (which seems unlikely..the army's non-jihadi faction is slightly ahead of the jihadi faction right now).
His popularity in the English speaking world and among middle class punjabis can be misleading. If you read Urdu, Dr Manzur Ejaz has a very good analysis of his actual impact: http://www.pakistanpost.net/epaper/allimages/p10-2.html