CACI Forum, 7 Jun 07: Waziristan and the Uzbeks
....The fact of the matter is, Taliban Mullah Nazir declared a Jihad against some Uzbeks, but not by any means all Uzbeks, and certainly not all foreign fighters. The al Qaeda Arabs, for example, were incontestably not on the target list at all. In really, there are two main groups of Uzbeks in Waziristan. The Taliban, according to Pakistan's News International, were only fighting the "bad Uzbeks," who are part of a splinter terrorist movement called the Islamic Jihad Group, or IJG, a radical group which broke away from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in 2004.

The IMU is the other main group of Uzbeks, and it was not targeted. The IMU is led by Tahir Yuldashev, and is closely aligned with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Yuldashev is believed to sit on the al Qaeda global shura and has tactical control over perhaps 500 fighters in Waziristan. These Uzbeks were not targeted in the fighting; in fact, Yuldashev is reported to have a close relationship with Osama bin Laden, and some of his IMU Uzbeks are believed to serve on bin Laden's "Black Guard," his personal corps of bodyguards. Mullah Nazir is not only close to Yuldashev, but to other known al Qaeda operatives in Jihadistan as well, including Khadr al Kanadi.

In fact, far from being a "success story" of the peace deals, the recent fighting illustrates how completely out of control the entire frontier is becoming. Yes, some Jihadis are killing some other Jihadis, and that's a good thing at the tactical level. But in the big picture it's not a significant win. It can be compared to the Mafia families of New York having a gang war -- the stronger gang will eventually come out on top with consolidated control, more local respect, few if any enemies, and a more focused agenda. The north of Pakistan is a very dangerous place, and the momentum now is running in the wrong direction.