Pakistani politics (catch all)

[tequila]

I'll just throw my own guess: it won't work. Airstrikes and SSG raids didn't work before, and it won't work again, except to absolutely convince everyone in South Waziristan that Islamabad is their enemy, not their government.

I don't care if you kill Beitullah Mehsud with one of these strikes, as I expect we will one of these days. The TTP will not overrun Pakistan, but it is successfully creating its own zone where the Pakistani government by its own admittance cannot go. As long as this occurs, the Swat Valley op will have to be done again and again and again. The TTP must be challenged comprehensively in its own territory by adequately resourced government troops unafraid of close combat.

[George L. Singleton]

Concur...if you read other postings I did today, 7/14/09 you will find similar remarks, in more detail, by me together with a link to related article in 7/14/09 WASHINGTON POST.

[davidbfpo]

I've not combed the web for support, but my understanding is that two full divisions and five SF groups were deployed for the operation.

Now according to the IISS Military Balance Pakistan has eighteen infantry divisions and one SF group (with three batts). Thanks to George's monitoring we know that the Frontier Corps SF (no numbers) and Azad Kashmir troops (with M113 APC) were deployed.

Residents are reported to be returning, note in small numbers compared to the previously reported 2m displaced: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8150109.stm

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Leave it to the Scotland Yard folks to take the time to read the details and fine print to recognize unique elements of the Pak Army now in the Pak/Afghan/Swat fight against the Taliban and al Qaida.

Folks I hear from privately in Lahore indicate that some of the divisions David mentions came from previous postings on the Pak/India border, and about time, too.

[davidbfpo]

An interesting review article on changes in Pakistan, note it cites a "bottom up" from a general in Bajaur Agency using a different approach to the Army and Frontier Corps doing COIN: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...kals?page=show (note the author's blogsite opens and then freezes computer).

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

I missed the BBC TV Panorama documentary on the battle for Swat Valley, broadcast 28th June: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00l967g Commentary aside some good film of both sides. Grim on Taliban tactics: flogging a teenage girl, beheading soldiers and an attack on a mosque. Leaving aside 170 girls schools burnt out.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

An interesting report on the civilians leaving South Waziristan to escape the conflict: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8152366.stm

davidbfpo