Pakistani politics (catch all)

**davidbfpo** · 08-29-2007

If the Bhutto-Musharraf "deal" is finally concluded and then accepted by her party and the military - that is the first stage.

Next follows the presidential election, which Musharraf is reported as hoping will be the current national parliament and the provincial assemblies - not a direct, popular vote. Most sources suggest Musharraf can "fix" this vote, assuming that the supreme court do not intervene and the "fixers" accept the ir orders.

Then in late 2007 - early 2008 is the national, popular election for the national parliament and the provincial assemblies. When Bhutto & the PPP offer themselves to the voter, against a collection of opponents, the religious parties, Musharraf's "shell" party (PML-Q) and Nawaz Sharif & the PML.

Who will win then? Again most sources do not predict what will happen.

Is a Bhutto-Musharraf coalition a vote winner? What happens if the popular vote, with no "fixing", does not elect Bhutto?

I think Musharraf would not survive long, especially if Sharif won. Or the army "had enough" and replaced him or the elected government.

Watch and wait is one option. Ensuring a free vote in the elctions is something Pakistan's friends can help with. A election monitoring mission, not under EU / US / NATO auspices, my own preference is for a Commenwealth-led mission, with EU / US / NATO support (money).

Now back to my armchair.

davidbfpo

**tequila** · 09-10-2007

Sharif deported from Pakistan - AP, 9 Sep.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was deported Monday hours after he had landed in Pakistan from seven years in exile hoping to campaign against the country's U.S.-allied military ruler, officials said.

About four hours after he arrived on a flight from London, Sharif was taken into custody and charged with corruption, but then quickly spirited to another plane and flown out of Pakistan toward Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, an intelligence official said.

An official in President Gen. Musharraf's office confirmed Sharif was deported but did not divulge his destination. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to media. There was no immediate formal confirmation from the government.
Pakistan's Dawn News TV and ARY TV networks also reported that Sharif's destination was Jeddah.

Sharif's deportation came despite a landmark Supreme Court ruling last month that the two-time former premier, whose elected government was ousted by Musharraf in a 1999 coup, had the right to return to Pakistan and that authorities should not obstruct him.

"It is a violation of the constitution, and it is a violation of the court order under which Nawaz Sharif was allowed to arrive and stay in Pakistan," Sadique ul-Farooq, a close aide to Sharif told The Associated Press ...

**JJackson** · 09-10-2007

In Pakistan Musharraf is in an impossible situation; he came to power by coup, is not popular, leads a state created & defined by religion - during the dissolution if colonial India - and has the much larger & more powerful ‘old enemy’ to his south. His situation was comparatively stable pre 9/11; he had the India problem to his south - but domestically could command popular support here. To his north he had a Muslim Taliban which was not a problem to him until the US issued its ‘you are either with us or against us’ ultimatum. Scared of the US aggressively taking sides with India he acquiesced and joined Bush’s ‘war on terror’ - initially not domestically popular but manageable. As US Islamophobia increased and disastrous policy initiatives unfolded in Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon and Somalia being ‘in league’ with the US has considerably weakened him domestically emboldening the Supreme Court to defy him and the already quasi-independent north to disown him completely. To take aggressive action in the north – where intelligence is very poor – at a time when he is trying to reposition himself as a candidate for democratically elected President will make him unpopular to the point that his rigging of the elections will need to be so blatant it risks severe civil disobedience. Obama - and others - statements regarding uninvited military action within Pakistani sovereign territory aren't helpful and provide a propaganda bonanza in the tribal areas. The problem is – as always – backlash; have we not learnt from all our interventions into the domestic politics of other countries propping up corrupt regimes because they profess some antipathy to our current ideological bet noir (for last century read Communism and for this Islamism) risks popular overthrow with the new power swinging the other way and blaming America with a vengeance for their previous suffering. What kind of nuclear Pakistan do you think will emerge if we push Musharraf to a point he cannot contain his own very Muslim people? Not that I necessarily think getting rid of him is a bad thing he is a nasty piece of work but following the usual US ‘lesser of two evils’ logic he is - currently - our nasty piece of work.

Some links:
US documents show Pakistan gave Taliban military aid:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/S...149588,00.html
Some insight into the pre 9/11 relationship between Pakistan & Taliban Afghanistan.

Generals Waiting in the wings:
http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/07/top4.htm
Musharraf needs to step down from the Army to run as a civilian for President, this article discusses who he may pick to replace himself. Given the role of the military in Pakistani politics not an insignificant decision.

Humour - Pakistan-style: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6984262.stm
An interesting look at the juxtaposition of roles amongst those jocking for the PM's job.

**davidbfpo** · 09-11-2007

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...11/wpak211.xml

A distraction from Washington's grand design, by
Ahmed Rashid (who is an excellent reporter / analyst)

Nawaz Sharif is not part of the American script for the war on terror and the future of Pakistan, written by mandarins in the US State Department. He is considered neither fish nor fowl, too close to the fundamentalist mullahs and too unpredictable.The real script is to save the beleaguered Gen Pervez Musharraf, and involves another former prime minister in exile - the fragrant Daughter of the East, Benazir Bhutto. When in a few weeks' time she repeats yesterday's homecoming saga from London, the very police that manhandled Mr Sharif will welcome her and she will be allowed to lead a procession to her hometown.That is because the West is desperate to bring her and Gen Musharraf into a loveless marriage so that the general can combat the terrorists and the lady play democracy. This, they hope, can keep the crumbling edifice of military rule going for a few more years or at least until Osama bin Laden is winkled out of his home in the tribal regions of North and South Waziristan.And that is where the whole plan falls apart because in a country like Pakistan, a failing state hovering over the abyss, there are too many loose ends to tie up.Ms Bhutto's popularity has plummeted since it became apparent that she is trying to cut a deal with the army. The more she is seen as part of some Bush game plan, the more she is mistrusted by a populace that hates the army as much as it hates the Americans.Then there is the crumbling morale in the army. Two weeks ago US and Nato forces in Afghanistan were shocked to discover that 300 Pakistani soldiers - their erstwhile partners in the war on terrorism - had surrendered to the Taliban in Waziristan without firing a shot.Soldiers in the badlands controlled by the Taliban and al-Qa'eda are deserting or refusing to open fire. The White House is panic-stricken. That is because Gen Musharraf in his hubris has utterly failed to convince Pakistanis or the army that Pakistan has to fight not America's war, but its own war against ever-expanding extremism.Pakistan's own Taliban are running wild in large parts of the country, beheading women, burning video shops, launching suicide bombers against army convoys and taking over law and order in towns just 100 miles from Islamabad.On Sunday the Pakistani Taliban issued a letter warning legislators from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League that more than 300 suicide bombers were ready to kill them if they voted for another five-year stint for Gen Musharraf in the presidential elections.The other loose cannon is the supreme court, which may well rule in the next few days that Mr Sharif has every right to return to Pakistan and that Gen Musharraf cannot stand as president and also remain army chief.If that happens, Gen Musharraf's only course would be to impose martial law and dismiss the chief justice - which would almost certainly plunge Pakistan into an even deeper unknown.The West would like to see an orderly transition to some kind of watered-down democracy headed by Gen Musharraf and Ms Bhutto, so that its two major concerns - persuading the army to confront the Taliban and keep its nuclear weapons under lock and key - are safeguarded.However, that agenda looks increasingly at risk. By sending Mr Sharif into exile, Gen Musharraf and his Western allies have only bought themselves a little time but they may find that they have only speeded up the meltdown of Pakistan.

**davidbfpo** · 09-11-2007

Links to stories / analysis on Pakistan:

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-9-2007_pg7_42

Analyst looks at the US incursion option into FATA

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayA...continent&col=

Child suicide bomber

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayA...continent&col=

Clashes in South Waziristan

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...r_musharr.html

US analyst writes

davidbfpo

**Rex Brynen** · 09-12-2007

Terror Free Tomorrow, Pakistanis Reject US Military Action against Al Qaeda; More Support bin Laden than President Musharraf: Results of a New Nationwide Public Opinion Survey of Pakistan, 11 September 2007.

Nearly three quarters of Pakistanis oppose unilateral American military action to pursue Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters based inside Pakistan. Moreover, a third or more of Pakistanis have a favorable view of Al Qaeda, the Taliban and bin Laden. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is also the least popular political leader in Pakistan today (38% favorable)—falling considerably behind bin Laden (46% favorable).

These are among the many significant findings of a new nationwide public opinion survey in August covering both rural and urban as well as all four regions of Pakistan.