Pakistani politics (catch all)

[tequila]

Some new info in the latest update from the NYTIMES.

In Karachi, Ms. Bhutto, who returned to Pakistan from Dubai hours after emergency rule was imposed, spent Sunday at her residence there. Leaders of her party, the Pakistan People’s Party, said she would fly to Islamabad on Sunday to hold talks with other opposition parties on how to proceed. But Ms. Bhutto did not show up here.

In interviews with foreign broadcast outlets, she called on the Musharraf government to lift what she called “martial law” and to hold elections.
Sympathizers of Ms. Bhutto, who came back to Pakistan with the backing of the United States and the specific mandate of bringing a democratic face to Pakistan, said her options for influencing the situation were limited.

Ms. Bhutto’s most potent weapon — the potential to rally large numbers of demonstrators — was now in severe trouble, said Najem Sethi, the editor in chief of The Daily Times.

Organizing large protests under emergency rule, and after the bomb attack on her arrival procession Oct. 18 that killed 140 people, would be very difficult for her, he said.

“She will be very critical,” Mr. Sethi said. “But she is not going to participate in protests. She’s going to make a token representation. Behind the scenes she will work with the government for election as soon as possible.” Enver Baig, a senior leader of her party, said that the group’s strategy in the immediate future would be announced Monday.

Benazir sitting at home and apparently unwilling to risk organizing of large street protests removes the PPP from play. Certainly some PPP leaders might be willing to go along with the lawyers in organizing street rallies, but the PPP or the PML have always been top dogs at getting massive numbers in the streets, and might be the only bodies able to do so in the face of a state of emergency. But if Benazir will not go along, then Musharraf can breathe much easier.

[jcustis]

This all may make no difference. Based on my very limited read of the situation, and it's impact across the larger spectrum of issues we face vis-a-vis Afghanistan, Iran, AQ, etc., it looks like the US is hosed.

[Rex Brynen]

Does Musharraf face risk of a coup?
By M Ilyas Khan
BBC News, Karachi
Monday, 5 November 2007, 17:52 GMT

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was forced to dismiss rumours circulating on Monday that he had been placed under house arrest, just two days after he declared emergency rule.

So far, coups in Pakistan have been against civilian governments
As things stand, there is little reason to believe that Gen Musharraf, who is both president and head of the army, is in imminent danger of being removed from office by force.

[davidbfpo]

The (London) Daily Telegraph, under this title Pakistan: the world's most dangerous country, has this column:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...06/wpak306.xml

JCustis - the interests of the USA may not be met by Pakistan today, neither the USA or the wider Western interest can afford to see this dangerous country lost.

BBC Radio 4 has just had a small item on what happens to Pakistan's nuclear weapons and contingency plans to ensure they do not fall into untrustworthy hands.

Here the press are reporting the parliamentary elections will take place in January 2008, partly as external pressure is exerted.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Stephen Cohen is an acknowledged expert commentator on Pakistan, particularly it's army and has written an excellent review:

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/20...tan_cohen.aspx

davidbfpo

[tequila]

Cohen's analysis is, if anything, too optimistic. He still holds that a voluntary, distinguished retirement is a possibility with Musharraf. If that was the case, there would have been no need for declaration of a state of emergency. Musharraf appears to have convinced himself that the country cannot survive without himself at the helm.

The U.S. should dissociate itself from him posthaste. Clinging to Musharraf will only ensure that Pakistani public opinion of the U.S. goes down with him. One perhaps one could argue that it couldn't possibly sink any further, but my reading of history tells me that things can always be worse, especially in Pakistan.

The massive crackdown on the lawyers' movement appears to be having an effect, but I wonder if events may turn nasty in Rawalpindi:

Angry protests by thousands of lawyers in Lahore and other cities on Monday demonstrated the first organized resistance to the emergency rule imposed by the Pakistani president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf. But the abrupt arrests of many of them threatened to weaken their challenge.

The real test of whether the opposition to General Musharraf will prevail appears to be several days off: The leader of the biggest opposition political party, Benazir Bhutto, has pledged to lead a major protest rally on Friday in Rawalpindi, the garrison city adjacent to Islamabad, the capital.


The Musharraf government’s resolve to silence its fiercest opponents was evident in the strength of the crackdown by baton-wielding police officers who pummeled lawyers and then hauled them by the legs and arms into police wagons in Lahore.
At one point, lawyers and police officers clashed in a pitched battle, with lawyers standing on the roof of the High Court throwing stones at the police below, and the police hurling them back. Some of the lawyers were bleeding from the head, and some passed out in clouds of tear gas.


It was the second time this year that Pakistan’s lawyers emerged as the vanguard of resistance to the government. In the spring, the lawyers mounted big rallies in major cities when General Musharraf tried to dismiss the chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who has now been fired.


How long the lawyers can keep up their revolt now without the support of opposition political parties, which so far have been lying low, remains in question ...

[davidbfpo]

Found on the independent RUSI website, a London "think tank" (they have other roles) and well connected to the Ministry of Defence, Foriegn & Commonwealth Office and Whitehall generally, a new review of the position:

http://www.rusi.org/research/studies...473826483022F/

There are other comments on recent developments in the region.

davidbfpo