Pakistani politics (catch all)

[goesh]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21539920/

Suicide attacker kills 5 near Musharraf's office

[goesh]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12913301/

Bhutto leaves Pakistan as new violence erupts
Opposition leader heads to Dubai; 60 alleged militants killed in fighting

updated 33 minutes ago
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Security forces killed at least 60 militant supporters of a pro-Taliban cleric in Pakistan’s northwest, the army said Thursday, hours after a suicide attack on an air force bus killed eight and wounded 40.

[Brian Hanley]

Al Qaeda has one visible route today to world power and their aim to reinstate the Caliphate, which is the game plan they tried to ignite with the 9-11 attacks. That is to take over Pakistan, and by doing so gain control of the army and its nuclear weapons. (No I don't believe Musharraf's declarations Pakistan's nukes are secure in the event of a transition for one second.)

That is why they must either kill Bhutto and terrorize her supporters into acquiescence or drive her out of the country and cause her supporters to give up. (If they were smart they'd kill her and her family wherever they are and I'll bet they want to.) Musharraf is the inheritor of Zia's army support, and that was built by catering to the Islamists. They know it, and know that he owes his throne to them.

If Al Qaeda loses decisively in Pakistan and gets wiped out there, then their day is done. But it doesn't look like that now. Knowing that Musharraf has sided against them, they are playing the brinksmanship game as only fanatics can do. Watch that one carefully. Al Qaeda doubtless has already made plans for how they will deploy Pakistan's nukes. And they're the kind of fanatics that believe that a good muslim will be happy to die for the cause and bad muslim should be killed because he's in the way.

The game in Pakistan is the big game. Personally, I don't think Bhutto has a chance, although I wholeheartedly support her. Here constituency is not militant, they are mostly sheep who want nice lives and hope to be cared for by a parental state figure. (This tendency is the great hobgoblin of the developing world.)

[goesh]

I'm trying to compose a poem about red circles drawn on a map of Paki nukes in anticipation of a successful fundamentalist coup but the real key to Paki stability is cut off Taliban funding via disrupting the opium flow/cash, so to my hammer and tongs way of thinking, the SFers and other 'crews' need to be hunting a different kind of prey. A late night thought anyway......

[tequila]

Amazed that no one has posted on Musharraf's declaration of a state of emergency in Pakistan.

The constitution has been suspended. Eight dissenting Supreme Court justices have been arrested, including Iftikhar Chaudhry, head Supreme Court justice and nominal leader of the "lawyers' movement" that really crystallized middle class opposition to military rule in the past few months.

Benazir Bhutto has landed in Karachi but apparently is sitting on the tarmac. She already came out against possible declaration of a SOE on Wednesday and swore that the PPP would resist it.

Condoleeza Rice has declared U.S. "disappointment" in the move. Admiral Mullen had declared previously that a SOE would cause the U.S. to review whether or not to continue aid to the military.

My reaction is that General Musharraf was afraid that the Supreme Court would not sign off on his recent election as president, and this spurred the move. The increasing Islamist attacks on the security forces gave him his pretext.

However, I think that by doing this he has shorn the Pakistani army of all its possible allies in the country. The political parties, the middle class, the civil service, the Islamists --- all are now lined up against him. Can the army stand alone when all these sectors of society are against it? Will the army stay loyal to the general?

Things are not looking good.

[davidbfpo]

The state of emergency in Pakistan is well covered in this link:

http://www.pakistanpolicy.com

No doubt there will be much comment in the UK papers tomorrow and beyond.

Meantime here's my initial reaction. Violence is spreading in Pakistan, mainly in NWFP and the willingness of the security forces to fight remains questionable. From my experience of Kashmiri Pakistanis they all too often prefer "sitting on the fence" and take a long time to become active.

Watch and wait on the dice Musharraf has thrown.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

BBC-News website has this updated account of Pakistan:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7077310.stm

How the Taliban and other violent groups opposed to Musharraf react is unclear. Let alone the impact on the situation in Afghanistan.

davidbfpo

[Rex Brynen]

Things are not looking good.

Agreed--in fact, I think they're looking very bad. Judging from some of the arrests that are now being reported (including Gen. Hameed Gull, the former head of ISI) there are already serious splits in the national security establishment.

The fact that martial law seems to have been imposed over an issue of Musharraf's personal power (the impending Supreme Court ruling on his reelection) rather than on an issue of policy or principle is likely to further fracture his military support base--and, for that matter, sap the willingness of individual soldiers to fight regime opponents, including pro-Taliban elements in the FATA.

[tequila]

I think the rubber will meet the road when the first massive public demo gets underway in Karachi or Islamabad - either from the PPP or the lawyers' movement.

How will it go? Will Musharraf order mass arrests? Will the security forces hold? If demos do go off, I cannot see how Musharraf can tolerate them if they continue --- they could paralyze the cities and really crystallize public opinion against him.