Pakistani politics (catch all)

[George L. Singleton]

ICG, 13 Mar 09: Pakistan: The Militant Jihadi Challenge

Lord Curzon, the viceroy of India, created the NWFP by removing it from the Punjab's administration in 1901. Todays Punjab is both in Pakistan but also in India, overlays both Pakistan and India across their common border.

Punjabis historically are viewed by many Pukhtuns as landlords and business userpers who took and take advantage of Pukthuns and the NWFP. Allegations are endless and some, no doubt, are true, but clearly not all.

The Taliban, who are Sunnis and Pukhtuns, began under that name around 1978 when the last King of Afghanistan was overthrown as a prelude to and a part of the USSR invasion of Afghanistan. *The old USSR saw Afghanistan as a stepping stone to warm water ports on the Arabian Sea, among other objectives and goals. I wrote about this in a 1985 paper for my Air Force Command and Staff College as best I can recall.

Now: It is my opinion, as I cannot be the know-it-all, now or ever, my opinion that the Taliban are not a numeric threat in Punjab today, but do have cells which may amount to some 3,000-6,000 members of a hard core nature, together with a few, not a huge number of madrassas and a hospital or two they run for public charity and image purposes in the Lahore area...Lahore area is where the Taliban inside Pakistan "were founded or began from."

In today's Pakistan (Lahore area), across the border into Indian Punjab/Gujirat State and up into Pakistan Administered Kashmir, back across the Durand Line into Afghanistan, there and in related Northern Pakistan areas delineated in some of the included Internet references herein, as well as in the City of Karachi [where around 1.5 million Pukhtuns reside, some of whom may well be joining the Taliban today...but these are mainly the poorest of the poor Pukhtuns who are within Karachi which is a city of over 14 million today population.

What I see since studying this area closely ever since 9/11, based in large part on feedback in the form of responding open letters to the editors of both DAWN but more particularly the Peshawar FRONTIER POST, as well as interpersonal e-mails to me (my e-mail address is on every letter published in Pakistan by me, which now number around 200, majority in the FP, about 40+ in DAWN)...is a blame game of Pukhtuns as the essentially have nots against Punjabis, who are clearly the wealth "haves" of Paksitan. The Taliban benefit from, propoganda wise and feeds off of all acrimony from Pukhtuns against Punjabis. In general much confusion to us as outside observers as to which Pukhtuns are revolutionary nationalists [separatists who want to found a Pakhtuwananland comprised of parts of Pakistan and most all of Afghanistan] vs. which Pukhtuns are hardcore murderous terrorist Sunni Muslim extremists.

All this said, I suggest a careful...but selective of the topic of Pukhtuns in Punjab to fit against the topic of this thread...reading of all the attachments.

I don't see a huge "army" of Taliban organized in and in control of the Punjab area of Pakistan. I do see a quasi-urban guerilla attempt to falsely, my opinion, create this impression.

Concluding this short intro note to some cited research background reading for those of you interested in this thread please note that the Northern/Frontier areas of Pakistan have never been under effective central government control, nor do I think they ever will be under such control.

What I do see is the Taliban and al Qaida stirring up propaganda alleging violation of Pakistan's "soverignty" when drones and such are used to knock out the Taliban wherever they may be. Even the Government of Pakistan, first Musharraf, now Guiliani, pretend to resent and oppose such strikes...when in fact it serves their security purposes even more than those of NATO.

Thus, I tend to ignore and blow off the baloney Pak media tirades about drone strikes, and say more power to more drone strikes!

As for the masses, the majority of Pakistanis who are not Pukhtuns, about 85% (these statistics are arguable) other identities, really don't like the Pukhtuns nor their "areas" of Pakistan and only wish they would dry up and blow away. Those Pakistanis who claim differently are either easily freightened or in fact Pukhtuns who reside largely in Karachi, where they are a large but still distinct minority.

Good reading and I will look for discussion from you guys and gals now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html

http://www.france24.com/en/20081204-...FRKAxgoddjFwpg

http://www.foreignaffairscommittee.o...fghanistan.pdf

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...5072152AAkpNwz

"The vast majority of Pashtuns can be found in an area stretching from western Pakistan to southwestern Afghanistan. Additional Pashtun communities are found in Northern Areas, Azad Kashmir, and Sindh province of Pakistan as well as throughout Afghanistan. There are smaller communities in Iran, India, and a large migrant-workers community in the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. Important metropolitan centers of Pashtun culture include Peshawar and Kandahar. In addition, Quetta and Kabul are ethnically mixed cities with large Pashtun populations. With 1.5 million ethnic Pashtuns, Karachi is the largest Pashtun city in the world.

Pashtuns comprise over 15.42% of Pakistan's population or 25.6 million people. In Afghanistan, they make up an estimated 42% of the population or 12.5 million people. The exact measure of these figures remains uncertain, particularly those for Afghanistan, and are affected by approximately three million Afghan refugees (of which 81.5% or 2.49 million are ethnic Pashtuns) that remain in Pakistan. An unknown number of refugees continue to reside in ****Iran. A cumulative population assessment suggests a total of over 40 million across the region."

**** Iran/UN suggest about 300,000-500,000 non indiginous to Iran Pukhtuns remain inside Iran, with Iran having a pushy plan in effect to move them out and back into Afghanistan as fast as they can. During 2008 I think between 60,000 and 100,000 Pukhtuns were resettled back into Afghanistan from Iran, while maybe 400,000 Pukhtuns were resettled from refugee camps inside Pakistan back into Afghanistan also during 2008.

www.wiscnetwork.org/getpaper.php?id=224

http://jeffweintraub.blogspot.com/20...n-western.html

[Ron Humphrey]

but thanks for posting them.

Just one question for clarification. Of the as you say approximate 40 million how many would probably fit more into the category of have moved and integrated into their current places vs those who are more likely to return should the environment change to their liking.

I ask this because it would seem likely that such a determination would help delineate those who are in the (must be approached as external supporting populace) vs (those who may very well end up physically involved in popular movements within the actual AO.

[George L. Singleton]

Ron, I just edited my post to give you some ballpark numbers of displaced Pukhtuns who are thought to still, currently be in Iran and inside Pakistan but who in both cases are from and would return to or "be" returned to Afghanistan in due course.

***Nearly half the world's refugees are from war-torn Afghanistan and Iraq. UNHCR said there are 3.1 million displaced Afghans, most in neighboring Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan within the past 7 years since 9/11 said they had around 7 million Afghan refugees in camps, many born in Pakistan since they were displaced during the USSR invasion and war. So, if the UNHCR numbers are in the ball park in 2009, then millions have either gone back into Afghanistan...or gone to yet other nations...tracking all this is very foggy and uncertain just now.

Overseas Pukhtuns in general only go back to either Pakistan NWFP or Afghanistan to visit family/relatives, but seem in the main happier and are clearly better off in places like the US, Holland, the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Canada, and Australia. Those numbers right this second I don't have a handle on.

As for how many would ever return home, your bottom line question, I would repeat myself that those who managed to go "West" are happy to stay where they are, for good, if the host nations will let them remain.

Russia, I must note, has allowed zero Afghan or Iraqi refugees and wants none!

[Ron Humphrey]

It helps

[davidbfpo]

This item appeared on SWJ Blog, alas system does not allow me to comment there and so moved here. I am sure this 'moment' will cause some debate here.

SWJ Blog link: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7220 and cites: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050102824.html

Earlier another SWJ Blog had an item 'Two weeks to go" citing General Petraeus: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7216

This expat-run Pakistani website has some different views: http://watandost.blogspot.com/
One article by Juan Cole (not a regional expert) rightly IMHO cites statistics that the Pakistani Taliban are a tiny minority and has a David Kilcullen critique of drone attacks.

The objective of this story - which I'm sure has been inside 'the Beltway' for weeks - is to further influence the Pakistani military (army) and Pakistani government.

I note much of the recent, reported Pakistani military action has been led by helicopter gunships, artillery and para-military forces (Frontier Constabulary). Where are the "boots on the ground" of the army? Not that this army is ready, willing and equipped.

Is this the 'moment of truth'?

[davidbfpo]

An update from The Daily Telegraph today that the "truce" has broken down: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...dissolved.html

I note that President Zadari is due to visit Washington DC soon. Is this really good crisis management for Pakistan, that he leaves for several days? Let alone the image it portrays in Pakistan - yet again the USA issuing orders?

Would it not be more diplomatic and effective to meet halfway?

Then there's the deluge of articles on SWJ Blog.

Amidst the media furore and Western diplomacy have we overlooked how the Chinese and Saudis see the current situation? I expect India is watching carefully and trying to avoid anything that seems hostile.

davidbfpo

[goesh]

- the call is Obama's to make and I think he is more interested in projecting an image of control and being on top of things, regardless of the image problems it creates for Zadari as you have pointed out. This could be the mark of a new President with only 100+ days of foreign affairs experience but I bear in mind he is a Chicago politician.

[Ken White]

This could be the mark of a new President with only 100+ days of foreign affairs...

it proves yet again, for about the 44th time, that domestic politics will most always trump international relations requirements, no matter the long term (thankfully deferred to another administration) domestic cost.

We have a good political system and I wouldn't change it but it does have some induced and acquired drawbacks...

[George L. Singleton]

David et al:

Pakistan since 1947 has been on again, off again in efforts to subdue and rule the northern areas of Pakistan, which is heavily Pakhtun peoples, predominently Sunni.

While non-Pakhtuns are also majority Sunni elsewhere in Pakistan, what I get off line in direct one on one e-mails are hopes that the Pak Army will stay the course,which it has never, ever done in all it's flip flop history, always bailing out on pretext of India threats, or Kashmir mess, or both, sheer stupidity which the people of Pakistan even today tend to swallow as if it were true...which it is not.

One historial footnote: It was in about 1964/65 when the more radical mullahs started to push into the NWFP their efforts to push out all other faith systems except a more radical version of Sunni Islam....even though there were and still are pockets of ####es in the northern areas, too.

The allegations of "terrorists" having been created by the 1980s Afghanistan war with the old USSR has some validity in that refugee camps of over 7 million Afghans did open up inside Northern Pakistan starting in the 1980s during that war and now a couple of generations of hopeless, poorly educated, desperate for work or a vocation refugees inside Pakistan make a good recruiting ground for both the Taliban and al Qaida.

[davidbfpo]

This article is on SWJ blog, the author Ahmed Rashid is a widely repected writer and lives in Karachi and worth a read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050402943.html

davidbfpo

[goesh]

The NY Times and their 'source':

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30571961

"The one thing that impressed him were the missile strikes by drones — virtually the only American military presence felt inside Pakistan. “The drones are very effective,” he said, acknowledging that they had thinned the top leadership of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the area. He said 29 of his friends had been killed in the strikes."

However.....

"
The drone attacks simply prompted Taliban fighters to spend more time in Afghanistan, or to move deeper into Pakistan, straddling both theaters of a widening conflict. The recruits were prepared to fight where they were needed, in either country, he said. "

Per davidfpo and his link to the Ahmed Rashid article, I cringe at the thought of a blank check given to Pakistan in light of the known collusion between Pakistani Security forces and the Taliban. What a mess. Obama wants to bump up the numbers of incountry forces by 20K. Fine, but if I were Joe Taliban I would then ease up with the border crossings/engagements but up the martyrdome operations and focus more on fighting in Pakistan for a while. If collusion is as strong as some suspect, any blank check, if it comes down to that, will be spent quickly with few tangible results.

[George L. Singleton]

Concur with the Goersch opinion herein.

Pakistan has total systemic monetary/fiscal back up long standing which comes from a combination of Saudi Arabia and China.

It is the "seachange" needed in policy, action, and consistent words...read words as internal propaganda by the Pak government and Army which is needed now, not US "bucks."

If we provide night goggles and helicopters, based on private e-mails I have been getting from Swat and other Northern Pakistan areas over the past three weeks, the helicopters will again be used when ground forces, the Pak Army, on the ground is really what is needed to seize, take, and hold, hold long term, as in forever, the Northern lands, all the Northern lands.

Yes, the terrain in Pakistan is rugged and awful, but a few thousand terrorists are no more "able" to take and hold it than the Pakistani Army, which is much larger and better equipped.

Think: Why do the locals help the Taliban, even al Qaida, vs. the Pakistani Government and Army? Pakistan has it's own "trust" issues internally, let alone with the USA/NATO.

All the Pakistani bullroar over India is absurd and thinking Pakistanis now know this and want action within Pakistani, too.

Why is the Pak Government, hence their Army, still in such limited actions without a long term, sustained assualt action(s) against the Taliban and al Qaida? My answer is because they, the Pak Government/Army, intend to continue using and living with the terrorists rather than putting them out of business once and for all.

[davidbfpo]

Written by a UK commentator, Anatol Lieven, after / during a visit to Pakistan, he cites being in Sindh last week and gives some of the context amidst the pakistani public - which George S. reports upon: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/com...cle6221874.ece

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Perhaps rather long (narrow column explains why) and detailed commentary. The author is a Pakistani, resident in Florida: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...-is-to-be.html Covers all the issues quickly.

The website is now my favourite website for Pakistani comments.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Prince Turki al-Faisal was in Washington DC, in late April and was interviewed by the Washington Post, his remarks did not reach the UK and now there is a tony article on their website. This is a short summary: http://www.topnews.in/army-could-top...-chief-2158764 and a longer one on a Pakistani forum: http://forum.pakistanidefence.com/in...howtopic=82266

I note the forum has a comment that General Kiyani visited Saudi Arabia two weeks beforehand. Is this a sign of the little-reported "hidden hand" of Saudi Arabia?

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

A less pessimistic viewpoint by an American analyst, his one page article appeared on www.emergingmarkets.com (registration req'd) or you can view a seminar given on: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v18JJLpuSD8 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_j4daAwMnU .

davidbfpo

[jmm99]

Hello David,

After visiting the Watandost site, I can see why you chose it. Dr Taqi's article from yesterday is a good one. I wonder how many folks in our Beltway know what he is talking about ?

Turki speaks for one branch of the House of Saud. A WAG is that some of these considerations are in play.

1. Is it better for the Kingdom to have Pakistan's nuks under the control of more moderate Muslims (the Paki forces), under the control of AQ-Taliban types, or left in a state of uncertainty ? The last is long-term impossible, since the Kingdom (which is best at writing checks - a old comment by Turki) will need a nuk-equipped ally if Iran develops a regional nuk capability.

2. Will the ISI go with the Paki forces, go with the AQ-Taliban or remain an uncertain quantity ? That would seem the immediate short and medium term question.

An en masse ISI defection into a mainstream Paki effort vs AQ-Taliban would give that effort all the actionable intelligence it needs to start, as Taqi's quote of the poet says:

Begin -
to begin is half the work,
let half still remain;
again begin this,
and thou wilt have finished.

[Wana88]

...all the way to the bank.

Either our babu in d.c. are naive/stupid/getting kick backs or smoking some serious stuff.

1)Pakistan has never come close to being a failing or failed state. Sure, eventually it may accelerate down this path but not yet.

2) Pakistan has a professional standing military whose bloody record against its own --Muslim-- citizens is well known within the country. The arguments offered by Islamabad to the West ring hollow: its reluctance to leverage the army against its own people has nothing to do with humanity or concern for its citizens. All one has to do is ask the Baluchis whose insurgency against the state began in the early '70s and ZA Bhutto (the elected PM) let the Punjabi led military run loose in Baluchistan to brutally put down the rebellion by killing 1000s of the most downtrodden citizens of the most exploited region of the country. BTW, this insurgency still continues like a smoldering fire notwithstanding the effectiveness of brute force by the Pak military. Bugti's assassination by the Pak military under Musharaff notwithstanding his hideout in the wilds of Baluchistan and amongst his loyal tribal elements only serves to confirm how violently "efficient" this military is when it chooses to be. Don't forget what this military did to the unarmed citizenry in East Pakistan when they wanted to secede. They were able to break free and form Bangladesh thanks to Indian intervention to stop the slaughter of East Pakistanis at the hands of West Pakistanis. All Muslims by the way. In short, the Pak Army has its tentacles everywhere and can act when it suits their interests.

3) The so-called rogue elements (LeT, TTP, AQAM etc) all have linkages to the ISI and beyond, & the military. They would not last without the support/logistics/training by the army.

4)The nukes are the least of our worries for now. The army also has a very firm control over the delivery mechanisms as well as the devices.

5)While the Paks are quick to blame the US for their problems, there is enough blame to go around within this state: an autocratic "democratic" system of feudals (many of whom still have slaves/serfs/indentured peasants), their sycophants, namazis: all corrupt to the core. Zardari vs Nawaz Sharif. Both corrupt to such a degree (millions of $) that is just unbelievable in a state where the per capita income is maybe $300 a year. Zardari has fewer allies and as a shia is at a long term disadvantage; while Wahhabi lover Sharif has been in bed with the Saudis (the financiers of global wahhabism aka salafi-jihadi jihad bin saif wa jihad bin hijra (far more effective than by saif).

6) As long as the troublesome/country bumpkin Pushtuns are dying, it was an ideal situation to milk for all it was worth. The Pakistani babu/fauji all want the gravy train from d.c. to continue. Exaggeration of the internal situation and throw in cries of “the sky is falling, please help us we’re a nuke state” seemed to have resonated and the big bucks are about to flow in to grease the palms of all those involved in this scam. All at the expense of those refugees from Dir, Bajaur, Swat, Buner etc. Some dislocation estimates have passed the milion mark.

7) Those Punjabis and muhajirs who have the arrogance to think that this is game of chicken little w/the west is containable, might soon wake up one day to realize that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew. By that time it maybe too late. The Pushtuns, Baluchis and Sindhis are all watching this tamasha unfold from their vantage points. They are all watching and waiting to see how the Army led State addresses this humanitarian crisis caused by non-state elements (to include AQAM) with support from segments of the state apparatus. How the army helps or sacrifices them all in the name of the almighty dollar.

8) The people of the NWFP, Baluchistan, and Sind are watching and know that ultimately they are all potential pawns of a corrupted state and they don’t like it one bit. I’m sure there are many Bengalis (above the age of 47 or so) who can empathize with this latest Pakistani tamasha that causes excessive hardship for its own citizens.

[Ron Humphrey]

Always wondered what the narrative for supporting those multiple parties looking to go against the Pakistan govt would look like.

Guess thats one way of looking at it

[jmm99]

Besides the Madaris (Madrassas) Takeover, Zardari is at least sounding tough:

Govt to take over all Madaris: Zardari
Sunday, May 10, 2009
By Muhammad Saleh Zaafir

WASHINGTON: President Asif Ali Zardari has announced that his government would take over all Madaris as part of Madaris reforms and separate the students from extremists and they would be imparted modern education along with religious education.

He also pledged to take the ongoing military operation against insurgency to its logical conclusion.
....
Zardari pledged to mount an all-out war against the Taliban extremists, vowing to kill the militants in a military offensive.

“This is an offensive — this is war. If they kill our soldiers, then we do the same,” Zardari told PBS public television during a visit to Washington.

Pressed on whether Pakistan’s stated goal of “eliminating” militants meant killing them, Zardari replied in the affirmative.

“Eliminate means exactly what it means,” he said.