Pakistani politics (catch all)

[goesh]

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archi...23/200392.aspx

Radical Clerics Challenge Pakistan

[tequila]

Alternatives to Musharraf - Washington Post, 21 May.

U.S. policy toward Pakistan since September 11, 2001 has made its president, General Pervez Musharraf, indispensable. This is unfortunate -- and leaves us unprepared for rapid political change in a complex, nuclear-armed state of 165 million people.

Our business-as-usual approach has run up against a dynamic situation in Pakistan. The protests inspired by Musharraf's sidelining of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry have turned violent, dissatisfaction with Pakistan's government and its legacy of official impunity is growing, and social, economic and regional divisions are not being addressed.

Rumors abound that Musharraf will declare martial law and suspend elections scheduled for the fall, or that he is negotiating a power-sharing arrangement with Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party. Military leaders in Pakistan, however, have a limited shelf life, and the U.S. government should be prepared for an unexpected transition ...

[SWJED]

25 May Washington Post editorial - Pakistan's Peril.

After nearly eight years in power, Pakistani strongman Gen. Pervez Musharraf appears to be weakening. Mass demonstrations broke out against him this month in Punjab, the country's political heartland; tens of thousands at a time are turning out to cheer a Supreme Court judge who tried to investigate human rights abuses and then rejected the general's demand that he resign. Extremist groups, including the Taliban, are steadily strengthening, especially in areas near the Afghan border. Support for the government in the U.S. Congress, which has signed off on more than $10 billion in aid since 2001, is steadily fading amid persistent reports that the Pakistani army is failing to stop, and may even be supporting, Taliban operations against U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Not only Gen. Musharraf and his dogged supporters in the Bush administration have reason to worry about these developments. One reason the general is unpopular is his alliance with the United States, and the candidates to succeed him and control Pakistan's nuclear arsenal include Islamic fundamentalists and anti-Western generals. Gen. Musharraf appears inclined to use force to bolster his regime -- demonstrators have been attacked by party militias or police in several cities -- and that may seem preferable to the extremist alternatives...

[SWJED]

28 May Washington Post - Teetering Musharraf Buoyed by U.S. Alliance by Griff Witte.

As confidence in Gen. Pervez Musharraf falls at home and abroad amid allegations he is moving away from democracy and becoming increasingly autocratic, the Pakistani president has had at least one unwavering ally: the United States.

Pakistanis -- particularly opposition figures -- are watching for signs that that will change. Any indication of weakening support from the United States, they say, could spell the end of Musharraf's teetering administration. But policymakers and analysts here and in Washington insist that is unlikely because the United States lacks a Plan B in Pakistan and is uncomfortable with alternatives to a man who has been considered a vital ally since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001...

[SWJED]

29 May LA Times - Musharraf's Grip Falters in Pakistan by Laura King.

When President Perez Musharraf survived back-to-back assassination attempts in 2003, he might have thought the worst was behind him. But now, after easily quelling any threat to his power during eight years of military rule, the general appears trapped in a labyrinth of his own making.

His attempt 2 1/2 months ago to sideline Pakistan's independent-minded chief justice touched off nationwide protests that have coalesced into a full-blown pro-democracy movement. Islamic militants have established a firm foothold in the tribal borderlands, and vigilante-style followers of a radical cleric here in the capital have been kidnapping police officers and menacing those they consider to be promoting a licentious lifestyle...

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 6 Jun 07: Pakistan: Emergency Rule or Return to Democracy?

...In 1999, Musharraf declared a state of emergency and dissolved the parliament through a military coup.1 After having himself elected president through a rigged referendum in April 2002 – the referendum was itself an unconstitutional device – he oversaw deeply flawed national elections later that year. The resulting parliament gave Musharraf a vote of confidence and allowed him to retain his post as army chief. That parliament ends its five-year life in October. Musharraf's five-year term as president also ends that month.

Musharraf could opt for one of three choices:

- He could attempt to retain absolute power, as he seems presently inclined, through electoral rigging and constitutional manipulation. As a first step, he would obtain another five-year presidential term by using the present, lame-duck assemblies as the Electoral College, rather than, as the opposition insists, the successor assemblies scheduled to be elected this year....

- Musharraf could opt for a power-sharing agreement with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which would likely win at least a simple majority in a free and fair parliamentary poll....

- Musharraf could step down as army chief and the military could opt for a democratic transition, with free and fair elections as the essential first step....

[tequila]

Pakistani capital on high alert / suicide blasts in Rawalpindi - LATIMES, 5 Sep.

Police stepped up security and put this capital on high alert Tuesday after apparent twin suicide bombings in a nearby army garrison city killed 25 people and injured more than 60.

The double blasts struck at the heart of Pakistan's military establishment in Rawalpindi, which adjoins Islamabad and is home to President Pervez Musharraf and other senior government figures.

Although there was no claim of responsibility, officials suspect that the morning bombings were linked to the volatile situation in the region along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, where government forces have been battling Islamic militants with ties to Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

The explosions also heightened the political tension gripping Pakistan as Musharraf, whom the White House regards as a key ally in its battle against terrorism, fights to keep his job amid a sharp drop in popularity.

The military -- the power base for Musharraf, who is the country's top general as well as its president -- also has been hit by setbacks and embarrassments. On Thursday, for instance, as many as 200 soldiers were taken captive by suspected militants in the border region of South Waziristan.

Striking Rawalpindi "shows that the militants have grown stronger and bolder, and that's the message they want to convey," said Talat Masood, an analyst and retired lieutenant general. "What is happening in tribal areas where they have abducted more than 100 soldiers proves that they have become stronger."

The first explosion occurred about 7 a.m., during the morning rush hour, on a bus traveling near the military headquarters and only a few miles from Musharraf's residence and office. Television video showed the bus reduced to little more than a charred frame hung with bits of flesh and clothing.

Officials speaking on condition of anonymity said the bus was full of civilian and military employees of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, the army's powerful intelligence outfit. But publicly, authorities said only that the passengers worked for the Defense Ministry ...

Are we finally seeing the "end of the affair" between Islamist radicals and the Pakistani security services? If Musharraf and the Army eventually choose to abandon them and ally with Bhutto or other secular forces in Pakistani society, this could be a pivotal moment.

[davidbfpo]

There are numerous threads on Pakistan, especially since President Musharraf declared a State of Emergency and Ms Bhutto was murdered. I thought it time to start a new thread whether the national parliamentary elections mark a new start for Pakistan.

There have been many editorials and analytical pieces on Pakistan, some of which have appeared on SWJ Blog.

No-one doubts the crucial role of Pakistan and yesterday a retired Pakistan Air Force officer stated 'Pakistan is the eye of the storm in international terrorism'.

I am no expert on Pakistan, but I do watch it closely. For the UK Pakistan is very much the "eye".

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

The International Crisis Group's resident analyst in Islamabad, at a meeting in London recently took an optimistic view.

Militancy has been spreading since 2002, as space was ceded to them by the state and the absence of active secular parties. The "Mullah" parties lost support, note some stood and otehrs boycotted the election, as unlike recent elections this was free and fair on the day. Observers had noted pre-vote rigging and ex-ISI officers now admit the '98 & '02 elections were rigged.

Note whilst the election had a low turnout (32% is the figure I recall), in NW Frontier Province there was a 46% turnout (where a "Mullah" party had been in power and lost control of the provincial government).

The crisis of governance in Pakistan, with the State of Emergency and rising political violence, had been contained by the election and the militants had been defeated at the ballot box. I especially liked the phrase "Suicide attcaks do not win hearts and minds".

Poloitical agreement was needed (still undecided today) on the supremacy of parliament, constitutional democracy - with the Presidents power to dismiss governments removed and resoring judicial independence.

There was no a clear national will - shared by the public and parties - and a legitimacy to tackle extremism; all parties recognised the need for stability.

The role of the US & UK post-election was being criticised in the local press as de-stabilising and interfering with the political process. The same people, I expect this meant diplomats, had only weeks ago been working with President Musharraf and the army - who had not supported democracy till the very end.

The transition to democracy would be a "bumpy ride".

[davidbfpo]

Yesterday in London a retired senior Pakistani Air Force spoke to a small meeting on The Talibanisation of Pakistan. He had a different view compared to the ICG analyst, but was also optimistic.

Pakistan had a pluralist tradition since independence and 99% of the population is "moderate" who reject extremism. 'A nation makes war and the election is a good sign. We cannot alone foot the bill'.

It was vital to drop the phrase 'Islamic terrorism', this phrase infuriates many and assist AQ's ideology. To identify and reduce the root causes, there was no military soloution - that does not win minds. 'The Army is not short of resolve, it is ready to do it's job and is doing it' (numerous threads comment on this and would be sceptical on this). Grasping history and language was necessary.

The blame for extremism could be attributed to the Afghan War, against the Soviets, when the USA 'created the monster of extremism and then walked away' (a point few outside Pakistan I'd expect to agree with).

There were 100 AQ leaders in Pakistan and 5000 Taliban fighters who crossed the porous boder into Afghanistan' by implication from sanctuaries in Pakistan.

Six steps were outlined:

1) The US / UK must not send troops across the border
2) Appreciate the Pakistan Army is involved in a bloody conflict, with 1k dead
3) The collateral damage from bombing no longer just had a local impact
4) Pluralism is needed by Pakistan (as envisaged by it's founders)
5) Pre-emption is only a tactic
6) The roots causes include resolving the Palestine question

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Eight page open sourced report on militancy in NWFP and FATA on this link:
http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscel...alysis0308.pdf

(Not sure about NEFA's bona fides, although some contributors are credible).

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Taken from http://counterterrorismblog.org and by a respected analyst, Farhana Ali, under the headline Congressional Briefing: Where is Pakistan Heading?

Excellent review and challenges spending US$ millions on development and military aid in NWFP. Interestingly advocates, if not reveals, the work of a US NGO in the area.

davidbfpo

[jonSlack]

AFP - Musharraf resigns as Pakistan president

ISLAMABAD (AFP) — Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf resigned on Monday, bringing down the curtain on a turbulent nine years in power to avoid the first impeachment in the nuclear-armed nation's history.

The key US ally, who seized power in a 1999 coup, announced the move in a lengthy televised address, rejecting the charges against him but saying he wanted to spare Pakistan a damaging battle with the ruling coalition.

The departure of the former general set off wild celebrations at home, yet it was far from certain what would come next for a nation whose role in the "war on terror" has been increasingly questioned by Washington.

[davidbfpo]

President Musharraf's departure has been expected for several days and the Pakistani High Commissioner in London has just been interviewed by the BBC Newsnight programme. He effectively said Musharraf's time had ended, Pakistan had to unite to fight terrorism, not with helicopter gunships, but with "hearts & minds". The Pakistani Foriegn Minister was in the UK recently and at a private meeting with the Pakistani / Kashmiri community in Birmingham, was at his most animated when talking about why Pakistan needed to fight terrorism.

Yes, this all could be partisan "spin" (both the diplomat and minsiter are Bhutto or PPP loyalists). Persauding the Pakistani public is the task they have set themselves. A slow process maybe, although terrorist attacks can rapidly change public opinion e.g. after the hotel bombs in Amman, Jordan.

Watch, wait and wonder.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

For those who want a glimpse into the future visit this: http://pakistanpolicy.com/ with its viewpoint on possible candidates. I just had to laugh at some (sorry Pakistan).

davidbfpo

[jcustis]

David,

What potential pitfalls are there in the road ahead?

[davidbfpo]

This item appeared on SWJ Blog, alas system does not allow me to comment there and so moved here. I am sure this 'moment' will cause some debate here.

SWJ Blog link: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7220 and cites: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050102824.html

Earlier another SWJ Blog had an item 'Two weeks to go" citing General Petraeus: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7216

This expat-run Pakistani website has some different views: http://watandost.blogspot.com/
One article by Juan Cole (not a regional expert) rightly IMHO cites statistics that the Pakistani Taliban are a tiny minority and has a David Kilcullen critique of drone attacks.

The objective of this story - which I'm sure has been inside 'the Beltway' for weeks - is to further influence the Pakistani military (army) and Pakistani government.

I note much of the recent, reported Pakistani military action has been led by helicopter gunships, artillery and para-military forces (Frontier Constabulary). Where are the "boots on the ground" of the army? Not that this army is ready, willing and equipped.

Is this the 'moment of truth'?

[davidbfpo]

An update from The Daily Telegraph today that the "truce" has broken down: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...dissolved.html

I note that President Zadari is due to visit Washington DC soon. Is this really good crisis management for Pakistan, that he leaves for several days? Let alone the image it portrays in Pakistan - yet again the USA issuing orders?

Would it not be more diplomatic and effective to meet halfway?

Then there's the deluge of articles on SWJ Blog.

Amidst the media furore and Western diplomacy have we overlooked how the Chinese and Saudis see the current situation? I expect India is watching carefully and trying to avoid anything that seems hostile.

davidbfpo

[goesh]

- the call is Obama's to make and I think he is more interested in projecting an image of control and being on top of things, regardless of the image problems it creates for Zadari as you have pointed out. This could be the mark of a new President with only 100+ days of foreign affairs experience but I bear in mind he is a Chicago politician.

[Ken White]

This could be the mark of a new President with only 100+ days of foreign affairs...

it proves yet again, for about the 44th time, that domestic politics will most always trump international relations requirements, no matter the long term (thankfully deferred to another administration) domestic cost.

We have a good political system and I wouldn't change it but it does have some induced and acquired drawbacks...