Pakistani politics (catch all)

[George L. Singleton]

David et al:

Pakistan since 1947 has been on again, off again in efforts to subdue and rule the northern areas of Pakistan, which is heavily Pakhtun peoples, predominently Sunni.

While non-Pakhtuns are also majority Sunni elsewhere in Pakistan, what I get off line in direct one on one e-mails are hopes that the Pak Army will stay the course,which it has never, ever done in all it's flip flop history, always bailing out on pretext of India threats, or Kashmir mess, or both, sheer stupidity which the people of Pakistan even today tend to swallow as if it were true...which it is not.

One historial footnote: It was in about 1964/65 when the more radical mullahs started to push into the NWFP their efforts to push out all other faith systems except a more radical version of Sunni Islam....even though there were and still are pockets of ####es in the northern areas, too.

The allegations of "terrorists" having been created by the 1980s Afghanistan war with the old USSR has some validity in that refugee camps of over 7 million Afghans did open up inside Northern Pakistan starting in the 1980s during that war and now a couple of generations of hopeless, poorly educated, desperate for work or a vocation refugees inside Pakistan make a good recruiting ground for both the Taliban and al Qaida.

[Wana88]

...all the way to the bank.

Either our babu in d.c. are naive/stupid/getting kick backs or smoking some serious stuff.

1)Pakistan has never come close to being a failing or failed state. Sure, eventually it may accelerate down this path but not yet.

2) Pakistan has a professional standing military whose bloody record against its own --Muslim-- citizens is well known within the country. The arguments offered by Islamabad to the West ring hollow: its reluctance to leverage the army against its own people has nothing to do with humanity or concern for its citizens. All one has to do is ask the Baluchis whose insurgency against the state began in the early '70s and ZA Bhutto (the elected PM) let the Punjabi led military run loose in Baluchistan to brutally put down the rebellion by killing 1000s of the most downtrodden citizens of the most exploited region of the country. BTW, this insurgency still continues like a smoldering fire notwithstanding the effectiveness of brute force by the Pak military. Bugti's assassination by the Pak military under Musharaff notwithstanding his hideout in the wilds of Baluchistan and amongst his loyal tribal elements only serves to confirm how violently "efficient" this military is when it chooses to be. Don't forget what this military did to the unarmed citizenry in East Pakistan when they wanted to secede. They were able to break free and form Bangladesh thanks to Indian intervention to stop the slaughter of East Pakistanis at the hands of West Pakistanis. All Muslims by the way. In short, the Pak Army has its tentacles everywhere and can act when it suits their interests.

3) The so-called rogue elements (LeT, TTP, AQAM etc) all have linkages to the ISI and beyond, & the military. They would not last without the support/logistics/training by the army.

4)The nukes are the least of our worries for now. The army also has a very firm control over the delivery mechanisms as well as the devices.

5)While the Paks are quick to blame the US for their problems, there is enough blame to go around within this state: an autocratic "democratic" system of feudals (many of whom still have slaves/serfs/indentured peasants), their sycophants, namazis: all corrupt to the core. Zardari vs Nawaz Sharif. Both corrupt to such a degree (millions of $) that is just unbelievable in a state where the per capita income is maybe $300 a year. Zardari has fewer allies and as a shia is at a long term disadvantage; while Wahhabi lover Sharif has been in bed with the Saudis (the financiers of global wahhabism aka salafi-jihadi jihad bin saif wa jihad bin hijra (far more effective than by saif).

6) As long as the troublesome/country bumpkin Pushtuns are dying, it was an ideal situation to milk for all it was worth. The Pakistani babu/fauji all want the gravy train from d.c. to continue. Exaggeration of the internal situation and throw in cries of “the sky is falling, please help us we’re a nuke state” seemed to have resonated and the big bucks are about to flow in to grease the palms of all those involved in this scam. All at the expense of those refugees from Dir, Bajaur, Swat, Buner etc. Some dislocation estimates have passed the milion mark.

7) Those Punjabis and muhajirs who have the arrogance to think that this is game of chicken little w/the west is containable, might soon wake up one day to realize that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew. By that time it maybe too late. The Pushtuns, Baluchis and Sindhis are all watching this tamasha unfold from their vantage points. They are all watching and waiting to see how the Army led State addresses this humanitarian crisis caused by non-state elements (to include AQAM) with support from segments of the state apparatus. How the army helps or sacrifices them all in the name of the almighty dollar.

8) The people of the NWFP, Baluchistan, and Sind are watching and know that ultimately they are all potential pawns of a corrupted state and they don’t like it one bit. I’m sure there are many Bengalis (above the age of 47 or so) who can empathize with this latest Pakistani tamasha that causes excessive hardship for its own citizens.

[Ron Humphrey]

Always wondered what the narrative for supporting those multiple parties looking to go against the Pakistan govt would look like.

Guess thats one way of looking at it

[jmm99]

Besides the Madaris (Madrassas) Takeover, Zardari is at least sounding tough:

Govt to take over all Madaris: Zardari
Sunday, May 10, 2009
By Muhammad Saleh Zaafir

WASHINGTON: President Asif Ali Zardari has announced that his government would take over all Madaris as part of Madaris reforms and separate the students from extremists and they would be imparted modern education along with religious education.

He also pledged to take the ongoing military operation against insurgency to its logical conclusion.
....
Zardari pledged to mount an all-out war against the Taliban extremists, vowing to kill the militants in a military offensive.

“This is an offensive — this is war. If they kill our soldiers, then we do the same,” Zardari told PBS public television during a visit to Washington.

Pressed on whether Pakistan’s stated goal of “eliminating” militants meant killing them, Zardari replied in the affirmative.

“Eliminate means exactly what it means,” he said.

[davidbfpo]

Found via Zenpundit (hat tip) a comment by an ex-CIA Station Chief in Kabul, so of interest: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/graham..._b_201355.html

JMM,

I will only accept Zadari's policy statements on education in madrassahs when something is done, apart from rhetoric. This is more "playing to the gallery" and irrelevant.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

David:

The individual Pakistanis and family unit(s) grassroots level up as suggested in detail by the journalist who survived the Lahore blast in the FRONTIER POST office...which was basically leveled...is the fight and win your own war model most likely to succeed now.

Support for the Pak Army is growing even among the Pakhtuns. While Zadarai is on again off again, somehow his military have managed thus far to remain on the attack from all sources I have within Pakistan as a lay writer and reader on this good site.

GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE is "off the air" with automatic notice that it's owners have "Exceeded their bandwidth" which is a coincidence (?) from date and timing of the Lahore blast. I thought that site was out of Canada, run since 1987 by an ethnic Pakhtun college professor, but that may or may not be the case in 2009?

Friday, weekend time may generate more dialogue on your posting(s). Events change and expand so much daily inside Pakistan.

Have a Pakistani national friend who is now in process of becoming a US citizen...his younger generation family are in business here where I/we live. He is having an impossible time trying to sell his Karachi home to end his affairs there, stuck in Karachi with no buyers as of last e-mail I had from him.

Have a good weekend...the SEC College Baseball Tournament ended last Sunday, my pick made but lost the final game, Vanderbilt University baseball team. But, Regional baseball games begin today, Friday, 29 May, when Vanderbilt plays Middle Tennessee State University at the University of Louisville, KY...and Alabama plays Oklahoma State at Clemson in South Carolina.

[davidbfpo]

BBC News reports on public opinion changes: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/8085680.stm and the Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-Taliban.html

A reporter returning to Pakistan: http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...-pakistan.html

Alongside reports of barbers being busy back at work in the Swat Valley: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8083320.stm.

Tribal fighters attack Taliban in FATA: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...-pakistan.html and the converse in Bajaur: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...ur-agency.html

Maybe spin and wishful thinking, but just like other countries Pakistan can "flip flop".

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

David et al:

I believe the tide has started to turn our way inside Pakistan. What could hurt is if the Pakistani Government again flip flops and does not keep troops permanently in all areas where the Taliban are and have been driven out.

This has been the biggest problem all along, fight, then withdraw, then Taliban come back all over again.

George

BBC News reports on public opinion changes: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/8085680.stm and the Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-Taliban.html

A reporter returning to Pakistan: http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...-pakistan.html

Alongside reports of barbers being busy back at work in the Swat Valley: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8083320.stm.

Tribal fighters attack Taliban in FATA: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...-pakistan.html and the converse in Bajaur: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...ur-agency.html

Maybe spin and wishful thinking, but just like other countries Pakistan can "flip flop".

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

A video clip, which has interesting moments: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8117220.stm

Apologies to those who cannot view (usually Rex).

davidbfpo

[tequila]

Looks like Pakistan is opting to go down the enemy-centric route for its Waziristan operation.

Pakistan's forthcoming military operation in Waziristan will rely on air power rather than on ground offensives, an approach that isn't likely to eliminate the homegrown extremists and probably will disappoint Western allies, according to Pakistani officials and analysts.

...

Artillery, jet fighters and attack helicopters will be used to wear down the Islamist guerrillas, but ground forces will play a limited role in the mountainous landscape of Waziristan, which strongly favors guerrilla warfare and where the Taliban are deeply entrenched, the officials and analysts said. U.S. pilotless drones, which are armed with missiles and sophisticated technology to home in on individuals, might augment Pakistani air power.

...

"The nature of the operation is totally different from what we did in Swat," said a senior Pakistani security official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "It is just blocking the entrance. Nothing goes in, nothing comes out. We'll keep punishing (the enemy) with long arms, air (power), Cobra (helicopters).

...

A security expert who's knowledgeable about Pakistan's plans said that the aim of the South Waziristan move was to "disrupt" and "punish" Mehsud's network, not to engage in a ground battle that could lead to significant casualties among soldiers. He said ground troops would be used for "search and cordon" incursions against high-value targets: Mehsud and his senior commanders. The expert asked not to be identified, as he wasn't authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Any bets on the success of this particular strategy?

[marct]

Any bets on the success of this particular strategy?

It *might* work, in the short run, if it is co-ordinated with coalition efforts in Afghanistan and, at the same time, tied in with local "uprisings" against the Taliban (i.e. people either switching sides - again - or getting fed up with them). I think a lot with depend on sending a co-ordinated message in both the IO and kinetic spheres.

[goesh]

- they'll just spend more time on the Afghan side of the fence for a while, its in their DNA

[George L. Singleton]

...and the US Marines are waiting for the bums on the Afghan side of the border!

Touche!

[davidbfpo]

What I found puzzling (being polite) is that the NYT article is based on a presentation by ISI. Yet more evidence IMHO of the "stop and go" strategy used so often by Pakistan before.

Question(s) Pakistan is in crisis and needs to deploy more of it's army internally. Is there a current threat from India? A better way exists in Afghanistan in talking to (our) Taliban. Send us more US$ and we can help you, not our own people. Trust us (ISI).

You got me persauded, thanks NYT.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

The Australian has followed up the NYT & ISI article, with an interview with a Pakistani NWFP ANP politician (the ANP are in the national coalition government), who comments:

These are mere mock operations in order to convince NATO and the US that Pakistan is serious (about fighting) extremists and that Pakistan is not the mother of extremism, in fact, extremists are being protected and promoted with the object of destabilising Afghanistan, to compel America to seek Pakistani support, give them dollars and, ultimately, make Afghanistan a stooge state of Pakistan.

Regarding the failure in the Swat valley to get any leaders:

Unless the principal germs -- who have sown the seeds of extremism -- are eradicated, how can we claim the disease has been eradicated? There should be precise operations and hot pursuit of these leaders (but) I am afraid they're being protected

The full article: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...4-2703,00.html

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

An interesting comment by a retired Pakistani Army brigadier, who served in the FATA for both military intelligence and ISI: http://watandost.blogspot.com/

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

David, thanks for posting the Brigadier's article.

What jumped out at me most was:

The likely hideouts are the Dawar area of North Waziristan, Upper Orakzai Agency and the Pakhtun areas of Balochistan. However, if the operations are conducted in both Waziristan agencies, than Zhob and other Pakhtun areas of Balochistan are going to be places where the militants will flee.

Two schools of thought on over advertising in the open the operations before begun in N. and S. Wazirstan:

1. To let the civilian population know to "get out of the way and out of the area" to lower collateral damage/deaths.

2. To warn the key leadership of al Qaida and the Taliban so they could seek shelter elsewhere while letting their men be killed in the future fighting.

Jedburgh, too, has had a series of very informative posts the last few days, in particular, in my opinion. I am too stupid to keep up the adroit, well informed useful info you guys seem to roll over and toss out casually.

All of you keep up the good information and experience sharing. I note a growing number of US company grade and early field grade join-ups on SWJ. This is very encouraging.

Also note a few, would like to see more, Canadians and down unders registering. The more the better.

What I would really like to see are some still serviing, perhaps too much to ask for, Pakistani and Afghan officers and NCOs offering their views and suggestions.

It would uniquely also be helpful to hear from a few regular Army officers in Iran on how they flush out and deal with al Qaida cells which I read of late are being rooted out.

Too, the Saudi Royal family officers currently serving as to how they are containing and controlling the Wahabbi terrorist training camps and schools inside Saudi Arabia.

My wish list could go on and on.

[davidbfpo]

Peter Oborne, one of the UK's best reporters IMHO, has been in Karachi, Pakistan's commercial capital and a huge city beset with problems:

In the last 60 years the population of Karachi has risen from 300,000 to nearly 20 million. The pressure for homes, water and food - compounded by high levels of unemployment - has lead to furious conflict between the rival ethnic groups, with around 1300 people killed in gangland violence last year.

His report is based on following an ambulance driver, employed by a charity and a shorter period with a police inspector, who states:

...at least 100 of his officers have been killed in the past year.

The title of the thread comes from his closing comment - worth fast forwarding to, if twenty five minutes cannot be spared.

The film clip on: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/u...ld/4od#3180510

The written summary is on: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/u...2011/episode-4

The links do work in the USA and a SWC viewer responded:

They should stop making cop shows about Americans and make cops shows about Karachi cops. That was something.

[Tukhachevskii]

There was also this short lived fly-on-the-wall documentary by Channel 4 (iirc) a few years ago called, appropriately enough, Karachi Kops

[carl]

The human material is there. Those two guys are worthy of all the best adjectives, brave, dedicated, noble even. For real. The question is, can Pakistan figure a way to allow men like that to rise and have broader influence?

That ambulance driver, a unprepossessing middle age man, has to be the coolest, most fearless guy for a 5 block radius. The traffic he drove in and the things he did in it were hair raising.