Lebanon (all aspects)

[Tom Odom]

Agreed on the premise that Lebanon is on the verge again; this is a much better report in that it looks at the Lebanese. The first report looked on UNIFIL as a European failure to somehow "fix" Lebanon's problems. This one does tie the regional players into the equation as well, putting the need to pull in both Israel and Syria into the discussions.

Somewhat disagree in that the "verge" in Lebanon is always present, given the nature of the country, its historical roots, and the ever present need to balance "confessional" politics.

best

Tom

[Jedburgh]

CEIP, 16 Nov 07: The Presidential Crisis in Lebanon Demands Urgent Attention

Lebanon, an important piece of the precarious Middle East puzzle, is threatening to come undone in the coming few days. With the term of the Lebanese president Emile Lahoud coming to an end on November 24, the parliament has yet to meet, rival groups in the country have not agreed on a new president, and the country risks ending up with two governments and a serious breakdown of security and order. Despite a flurry of diplomatic and political activity, the parties—and their international backers—seem dangerously far apart; if a president is not agreed upon in the next few days, the country’s central institutions might soon collapse and the country might spiral slowly into a state of civil war. A high dose of intense international attention to Lebanon right now can save the country and the region years of open conflict and bloodshed. A number of leaders in Lebanon, the region, and around the world are focusing on bringing about a political resolution to the current crisis, but a redoubled effort from the United States and other major players is needed in these remaining days.....

[Rex Brynen]

Unless the Lebanese Armed Forces are the ones to make the attempt, then it doesn't matter.

Reality is, so far as I can tell...Hezbollah is not even remotely subject to the authority of the de jure government of Lebanon.

Until Hezbollah is brought under Beirut's control, and the whole of Lebanese territory is actively under the sovereignty of the government in Beirut, then the situation won't change much.

With the exception of this summer's fighting at Nahr al-Barid, the LAF has never been used domestically in a substantive way without it fragmenting along sectarian-political lines (as it did in 1976). Moreover, roughly c40% + of the Lebanese population is Shi'ite, as are a similar (or larger) share of the LAF rank-and-file. About half of the overall Lebanese population support the March 8 opposition (Hizbullah, Amal, Aoun). With the probable level of support for Hizallah in the LAF (or, at least, a refusal to use force against it), I can't imagine circumstances under which the LAF would even consider trying to forcibly disarm the party (even assuming it has the military capacity to do so)

The most probable outcome of the current presidential impasse is the formation of a national unity cabinet in which Hizballah is directly or indirectly represented, and in which it enjoys (along with its allies) a veto power over major decisions. In these circumstances, disarmament is even more unlikely, although a "moderating" change in the relationship between its political and military aspects might take place over time (although, for reasons I've already posted, I'm not optimistic this will take place quickly or soon).

[Ron Humphrey]

The most probable outcome of the current presidential impasse is the formation of a national unity cabinet in which Hizballah is directly or indirectly represented, and in which it enjoys (along with its allies) a veto power over major decisions. In these circumstances, disarmament is even more unlikely, although a "moderating" change in the relationship between its political and military aspects might take place over time (although, for reasons I've already posted, I'm not optimistic this will take place quickly or soon).

http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/1647.htm

Not sure how easily thats going to happen either.

[Rex Brynen]

For those of you who have never seen a Hizballah promotional video, this is a good example (from Hizb's al-Manar TV).

Impressive production values, and note the nationalist (rather than Shi'ite-sectarian) imagery, most notably with the frequent display of the Lebanese flag.

There are some that highlight this even more (as well as showcasing their crack bagpipe team!), but they tend to get deleted from Youtube rather quickly (as this one might too).

[Jedburgh]

USIP, 12 Feb 08: Facing the Abyss: Lebanon's Deadly Political Stalemate

....Today, Lebanon is plagued by a protracted political stalemate between a rump government led by the anti-Syrian March 14th coalition (inheritors of the Cedar Revolution) and the Hezbollah-led opposition. This dangerous deadlock has propelled Lebanon once again toward the abyss of civil war. Despite intensive Arab and European mediation efforts, a political compromise does not appear imminent. Rather, Lebanon seems poised to endure weeks, if not months, of continued paralysis and violence. This USIPeace Briefing examines some of the key issues underlying Lebanon’s current political turmoil.....