Lebanon (all aspects)

[bourbon]

It makes me wonder what an "al-Qaida linked group" means to the Lebanese officials referenced in the article, and what it means in true terms. Claiming you are down with AQ doesn't mean anything if you don't glean support in the way of materiel, manpower, or intel to drive operations. As Bill Nagle would often say, it's just putting a bumper sticker on it.

That moniker gets thrown around by the media wayyy to much these days, especially when the desired effect is to scare readers and mask deliberate journalistic integrity laziness. AQ has become the boogeyman catch-all.

The story references the very specific nature of the intel – intercepts between known AQ in Lebanon and the Gulf – "al-Qaida linked group" is probably what CIA told them. I doubt we are in the practice of passing along vague threats to, or even communicating with, Hezbollah frequently.

No doubt that AQ has become a catch-all bogeyman (probably always has been), but the US government does not get a pass when it comes to fear-mongering and intellectual laziness with regard to AQ. The media does not get a pass either, but fwiw the author of the article – Mitch Prothero – is imo pretty solid with his coverage of Hezbollah and the Lebanon beat.

[Wyatt]

the big question is why alert hezbollah intentionally? are they not our enemies?

To me it shows how powerful hezbollah is. If they we're inconsequential, what would we care if they were harmed? Further, if they were weak we wouldnt care if they viewed us as partially responsible. Maybe we have added their performance in syria to their performance against Israel and have decided that we would rather not kick thats hornets nest at this time and threw them a bone in the form of this intel.

Are we knowingly siding with sunnis and accepting their AQ links because the geopolitical threat of a shia/persian victory is worse?

It seems possible to me.

[davidbfpo]

Wyatt,

From my viewpoint the decision was sensible. It is in our general interest that the civil war in Syria does not affect Lebanon even more and a bombing campaign could be the "spark" for communal violence. There have been clashes already and Lebanon is a fragile, nay brittle nation. An action that binds Hezbollah closer to maintaining the internal safety and security of the Lebanon is a plus.

[davidbfpo]

An IISS Strategic Comment 'Syrian war worsens Lebanon’s malaise':http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...s-malaise-e473

[davidbfpo]

With events in Syria SWC may have overlooked the situation in the Lebanon, which although generally peaceful has VBIEDs, border clashes and communal clashes on a regular basis.

Thanks to the Soufan Group for this, which illustrates how brittle the nation-state is:

Sectarianism’s most prominent victim has historically been Lebanon, which has not been able to avoid the latest tensions that stress its constitutional framework. Putting aside the massive human tragedy inside Lebanese refugee camps that are changing the demographics of the country, the Syrian civil war has thrust sectarianism into a country desperate to avoid it. Last week’s twin suicide bombings in the northern Alawite town of Jabal Mohsen (near Tripoli) killed nine and might have ignited smoldering sectarian tensions that have never quite been extinguished. It is appropriate that there are competing claims of responsibility since the term means less and less given the amorphous nature of sectarian motivation. The situation in the area is so fraught with sectarian tension and machinations that the government had to raid one of its prisons—Roumieh Prison—which was beyond the writ of control and whose inmates were allegedly responsible for coordinating the Mohsen bombings.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...paris-to-baga/

[davidbfpo]

Another short description of the Lebanon by Professor Scott Lucas:http://eaworldview.com/2015/02/syria...king-pressure/

It ends with:

Lebanon has managed a complicated local and regional juggling act for years – but all the signs are that, as Syria and Iraq continue their meltdowns, things will only get more difficult to hold together. And the prospect of the collapse of Lebanon for stability in the Middle East as a whole is ominous indeed.

[davidbfpo]

A long explanation of the Lebanese, then UN investigation into the murder of the Lebanese politician, Rafik Hariri, a former prime minister, was killed with 21 others in 2005, when a truck bomb exploded near his motorcade in Lebanon. Allegedly by Hezbollah and now a trial minus defendants in the Netherlands:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/ma...=tw-share&_r=2

The case against the defendants depends on years of cell phone analysis. Using techniques now very familiar.