Lebanon (all aspects)

[Tom Odom]

Here is another good source

United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon

It offers access to the UN research library with mission reports and maps. I just used the mission reports from my time in Lebanon for a paper I am working.

Best

Tom

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 22 Jun 07: Summer Wars in Lebanon?

Lebanon is already involved in four potential struggles:


A Syrian effort to restore influence, if not control.


The rebuilding and restructuring of Hezbollah military power as both a means to gaining power in Lebanon and as an Iranian and Syrian supported threat to Israel.


Confessional struggles for power reflected in a major division between a Christian-Sunni prime Minister and a slim majority of Parliament and a Presidency with Syrian and Hezbollah ties, and


A struggle against the emergence of Sunni Islamist extremist movements with ties to Al Qa’ida that has led to clashes between the Lebanese Army and extremists in Palestinian Camps, but which involves Lebanese supporters of Al Qa’ida as well.

None of these struggles need turn into a “war,” but all of them can. They also interact, not only with internal developments in Lebanon, but developments in Israeli-Syrian relations, regional tensions with Iran, Palestinian struggles, and conflicts involving Sunni Islamist extremist movements like Al Qa’ida. The question of who will use whom interacts with the question of how far things can escalate, and no one can predict the outcome....

[SteveMetz]

ICG, 21 Dec 06: Lebanon at a Tripwire

To put it in a larger perspective, I thought this essay by Vic Hanson was one of the best assessments I've read for a long time:

Mideast cripples own cause


Victor Davis Hanson, senior fellow and historian at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University: Tribune Media Services

June 22, 2007

'The Palestinian people will never forgive the Hamas gangs for looting the home of the Palestinian people's great leader, Yasser Arafat." So Palestinian Authority spokesman Abdel Rahman recently exclaimed. "This crime will remain a stain of disgrace on the forehead of Hamas and its despicable gangs." Looting? Crime? Despicable gangs?

Excuse me. For years, Palestinian Authority-sanctioned gangs shot and tortured dissidents, glorified suicide bombing against Israel and in general thwarted any hopes of various "peace processes."

Of course, this kind of behavior isn't limited to the Palestinian territories but is spread across the Middle East. The soon-to-be-nuclear theocracy in Iran is grotesque. Iraqis continue to discover innovative ways to extinguish one another. Syria assassinates democratic reformers in Lebanon.

Here's why much of the region is so unhinged -- and it's not because of our policy in Palestine or our efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq.

First, thanks to Western inventions and Chinese manufactured goods, Middle Easterners can now access the non-Muslim world cheaply and vicariously. To millions of Muslims, the planet appears -- on the Internet, DVDs and satellite television -- to be growing rich as most of their world stays poor.

Second, the Middle East either will not or cannot make the changes necessary to catch up with what they see in the rest of the world. Tribalism -- loyalty only to kin rather than to society at large -- impedes merit and thus progress. So does gender apartheid. Who knows how many would-be Margaret Thatchers or Sandra Day O'Connors remain veiled in the kitchen?

Religious fundamentalism translates into rote prayers in madrassas while those outside the Middle East master science and engineering. Without a transparent capitalist system -- antithetical to both sharia (Muslim law) and state-run economies -- initiative is never rewarded. Corruption is.

So, Middle Easterners are left with the old frustration of wanting the good life of Western society but lacking either the ability or willingness to change the status quo to get it. Instead, we get monotonous scapegoating. Blaming America or Israel -- "Those sneaky Jews did it!" -- has become a regional pastime.

And after the multifarious failures of Yasser Arafat, the Assads in Syria, Moammar Gadhafi, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Saddam Hussein and other corrupt autocrats, many have, predictably, retreated to fundamentalist extremism.

Almost daily, some fundamentalist claims that the killing of Westerners is justified, because of a cartoon or a Papal paragraph or, most recently, British knighthood awarded to novelist Salman Rushdie. The terrorism of Osama bin Laden, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Taliban is as much about nihilist rage as it is about blackmailing Western governments to grant concessions.

Meanwhile, millions of others simply flee the mess, immigrating to either Europe or the United States...

[SWJED]

7 July NY Times - Chaotic Lebanon Risks Becoming Militant Haven by Souad Mekhennet, Michael Moss and Michael Slackman.

... One year ago, this country found itself in the middle of a war between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah after Hezbollah fighters crossed the border and seized two Israeli soldiers. Although the war’s catastrophic damage drew Lebanese together, they quickly turned on one another politically. Killings, bombings and political protests have become routine.

Political forces find themselves stalemated, with no one firmly in charge. Neighborhoods of rubble from last year’s war remain uncleared, and politicians on each side accuse those on the other of blocking reconstruction to prevent them from getting credit.

Parliament has to select a new president in September, but with the governing coalition and the opposition hostile to each other, that could set off an unraveling of what remains of the system of governance.

“If you are in a hole, at least stop digging,” said Ali Hamdan, foreign affairs adviser to Nabih Berri, speaker of Parliament, leader of the Shiite Amal movement and a close ally of Hezbollah. “Unfortunately, the Lebanese keep digging.”...

[Jedburgh]

GEES, 12 Jul 07: The Lebanon: What Comes Next?

The Current Context

1.- The political crisis in the Lebanon is still unresolved and seems to be worsening: The pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian factions are still in stand-off position, the institutional system is paralysed and sectarian-religious rivalries have done nothing but increase over the last few months. This crisis will simply become more acute between now and the presidential elections next September....

2.- Syria poses an increasingly complicated challenge both within the political panorama and with regard to the security situation. Its first objective is to prevent the inquiry into Hariri's death from implicating persons close to the regime headed by Bashar al-Assad, if not the Syrian President himself. However, at the same time, Damascus aspires to break out of the position of international isolation to which it has been consigned in recent years....

3.- The deterioration of security conditions is evident and, quite possibly, impossible to reverse. Over the last month we have witnessed ever-worsening sectarian violence and terrorist attacks in the north of the country, in Beirut and now in Southern Lebanon.....

4.- Israeli Uncertainty. On Sunday 17th June, Israel suffered a strike from two Katyusha missiles fired from Lebanese soil (specifically, from the area controlled by the UN Interim Force in the Lebanon, UNIFIL, and the Spanish contingent). The attack was condemned by Hezbollah and responsibility was assumed by a hitherto-unknown group that called itself the Jihad Badr Brigade. The Israeli authorities did not respond to this attack because they believed that any attack on their part would seriously compromise the fragile position of the government headed by Prime Minister Siniora in Beirut, which was already under attack from Hezbollah and Syria.....

[Jedburgh]

GEES, 27 Sep 07: Fear Factor: Lebanon and the European Way of Peacekeeping

The European-led United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon known as UNIFIL is proof positive, if any were needed, of why Europe is unlikely to ever be a global superpower. When the 13,400-member force was scratched together following last summer’s 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah, Europeans said their kinder, gentler “soft power” approach to peacekeeping would teach the United States a thing or two about global politics. While the United States starts wars, Europe ends them, or so they claimed.

But today Lebanon is on the verge of political collapse, a defiant Hezbollah has rearmed to the hilt and rumors of another war with Israel are rife. And as Lebanon slides further into chaos, UNIFIL itself has become a tempting target, so much so that it now spends most of its time trying to protect itself.

Which raises the question: What, exactly, are the Europeans doing in Lebanon?

[Rex Brynen]

...if you ask me.

The European-led United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon known as UNIFIL is proof positive, if any were needed, of why Europe is unlikely to ever be a global superpower.

Despite the somewhat ambiguous content of OP 12 of UNSCR 1701 (2006), no one really thought that UNIFIL + was going to disarm Hizbullah, or stop smuggling across the Syrian border (it is not deployed along most of that border), and it certainly didn't have a mandate or capabilities to somehow stop a potential Lebanese civil war (largely a political issue). Europe also didn't think this was their superpower moment.

The Europeans did think--correctly--that everyone needed a way to climb down from a general war that:

• Hizbullah started by accident (they clearly hadn't expected such an intense level of Israeli retaliation to the abduction of IDF personnel)
  
• Israel escalated without any clear game plan (only FM Livni seems to have even raised the question of an exit strategy)
  
• was causing enormous social, economic, human and political damage to post-civil war Lebanon
  
• was also radicalizing public opinion throughout the Middle East.

It was the Israelis who increasingly insisted that if UNIFIL+ was going to be the way of everyone backing down from the confrontation, it needed to have forces somewhat more robust than Fijians (ie, Europeans). Washington, once it was clear that no IDF knock-out punch was in the cards, also belatedly agreed (and certainly wasn't about to volunteer US troops).

Quietly the Israelis have been saying for some months now that, far from performing below expectations, UNIFIL's deployment has shifted much of the locus of Hizbullah rearmament efforts north of the Litani River (although given Hizbullahs popular support in the south and ability to cover its tracks well, its anyone's guess what it has actually done in the UNIFIL deployment zone.)

There is a lot one can criticize about UN peacekeeping, but UNIFIL+ has, more or less, performed the limited task that the UNSC and contributing states set it (most importantly, providing a mechanism for ending the 2006 war). It is hardly fair to criticize it for not doing things that no one seriously ever thought it would be able to do.

[AdamG]

Fearing a War, Lebanese Prepare by Buying Up Arms
Potential for Violence Between Religious Sects Leaves Many Anxious
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...=moreheadlines


(Find the inaccuracy in the graphic, win a cookie)

[AdamG]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7390943.stm

Supporters of Lebanon's Western-backed government and the Hezbollah-led opposition have been involved in fierce armed clashes in the streets of Beirut.

Television reports showed gunmen firing rifles and rocket-propelled grenades in Corniche al-Mazraa and Ras al-Nabaa.

The fighting began after the leader of Hezbollah described the government's move to close its telecommunications network as a "declaration of war".

[Tom Odom]

Hezbollah Ignites a Sectarian Fuse in Lebanon

...That sentiment has stirred fears that moderate, secular Sunni leaders like Mr. Hariri could lose ground to more radical figures, including the jihadists who thrive in Lebanon’s teeming Palestinian refugee camps. Fatah al Islam, the radical group that fought a bloody three-month battle with the Lebanese Army in a refugee camp in northern Lebanon last year, issued a statement Thursday condemning Hezbollah’s actions. The group also gave a warning: “He who pushes our faces in the dirt must be confronted, even if that means sacrificing our lives and shedding blood.”

A New Kind of Conflict

The Sunni-Shiite conflict is relatively new in Lebanon, where the long civil war that ended in 1990 revolved mostly around tensions between Christians and Muslims, and their differences over the Palestinian presence in the country. But after Iran helped establish Hezbollah in the early 1980s, Lebanon’s long-marginalized Shiites steadily gained power and stature. They have also grown in numbers. Although there has been no census since 1932, Shiites are widely believed to be more numerous than Sunnis or Christians, the country’s other major groups.

This will prove interesting. It is not entirely correct in that the "Muslim" bloc in Lebanon when I was there was hardly a bloc--Sunni versus Shia tensions did exist but they were overshadowed by Muslim-Christian tensions, especially when it came to the Israeli occupied south. A Shia versus Sunni struggle will also echo across the border in Syria with an Alawite (Shia derivative seect) regime and a Sunni majority.

Tom

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 15 May 2008: Lebanon: Hizbollah's Weapons Turn Inward

....The recent escalation in violence was made possible, in part, by the long-standing ambiguity surrounding Hizbollah’s weapons. Lebanon must find a middle ground between irresponsibly allowing Hizbollah their unfettered use and recklessly seeking its forcible disarmament. Until a broader regional settlement is found – one that deals not only with the Arab-Israeli conflict but also relations between the U.S., Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia in particular – one cannot hope for much more. Still, as Lebanon edges toward civil war, that would be no modest achievement.

ISN Security Watch, 16 May 08: Lebanon Resumes Fragile Dialogue

...Despite a commitment to renewed dialogue, it remains unclear whether the alteration of the strategic balance between the March 8 opposition bloc and March 14 coalition, implicit in the opposition military successes, can precipitate a breakthrough on the key political issues that have separated the two sides since November 2007.

"I think that Hizbollah may have been damaged much more by the violence than the government in the sense that Hizbollah lost a lot of its legitimacy as a resistance movement that claimed that it would never turn its arms against the country," Shehadi said.

Referring to the violence, Haenni said, "It seems that even sources close to Hizbollah recognize that, in terms of popularity, Hizbollah is going to face severe losses."....

The Economist, 17 May 07: Iran's Tool Fights America's Stooge

....The wonder may be that Lebanon has held together at all, and even maintained a veneer of democracy. But this veneer has grown steadily thinner since the end of the 2006 war, which, aside from leaving 1,200 Lebanese dead and 100,000 homeless, also widened the central fissure in Lebanese politics.

This division is often defined, for simplicity's sake, as a split between Hizbullah, backed by Syria and Iran in the interest of confronting Israel and blocking American influence, against the Western-backed, democratically elected government of Fuad Siniora, the Sunni prime minister. The reality is more complicated.....

CEIP, 21 May 08: Syrian/Israeli Peace Talks and Political Deal in Lebanon

.....I don’t think it’s quite correct to say this is a defeat for the Siniora government. What this is is a recognition of a situation that has been
existing for a long time. And in fact, by recognizing the situation—that is, the real power of Hizbollah to block what the government was doing—it’s an agreement that might allow, in fact, the government to govern a little more than it has been able to do so far. Now, concerning the issue of Hizbollah and whether it has, in fact, suffered a strategic loss, in many ways we will only know with the result of the next parliamentary election.....

[Rex Brynen]

See below for an outstanding CBC investigative report into the Hariri assassination and the subsequent UN investigation:

CBC Investigation: Who killed Lebanon's Rafik Hariri?

Last Updated: Sunday, November 21, 2010 | 10:54 PM ET
By Neil Macdonald CBC News

...

A months-long CBC investigation, relying on interviews with multiple sources from inside the UN inquiry and some of the commission's own records, found examples of timidity, bureaucratic inertia and incompetence bordering on gross negligence.

Among other things, CBC News has learned that:

• Evidence gathered by Lebanese police and, much later, the UN, points overwhelmingly to the fact that the assassins were from Hezbollah, the militant Party of God that is largely sponsored by Syria and Iran. CBC News has obtained cellphone and other telecommunications evidence that is at the core of the case.
• UN investigators came to believe their inquiry was penetrated early by Hezbollah and that that the commission's lax security likely led to the murder of a young, dedicated Lebanese policeman who had largely cracked the case on his own and was co-operating with the international inquiry.
• UN commission insiders also suspected Hariri's own chief of protocol at the time, a man who now heads Lebanon's intelligence service, of colluding with Hezbollah. But those suspicions, laid out in an extensive internal memo, were not pursued, basically for diplomatic reasons.

...

Quite apart from the insight it offers into the killing, it is well worth reading for a detailed account of how SIGINT and network analysis were used to link Hizbullah to the killings.

[Jedburgh]

WINEP, Nov 09: A Victory for Islamism? The Second Lebanon War and Its Repercussions

....The political fallout of the 2006 war continues to be felt in Lebanon. In November 2006, Hizballah suspended its participation in the Lebanese cabinet, paralyzing the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Simultaneously, the party erected a tent camp in central Beirut, bringing normal business to a standstill. Hizballah and its supporters then laid siege to the parliament and the prime minister’s headquarters, further undermining the state. Despite these actions, Siniora’s rump government continued to function, albeit without Shiite ministers.

The crisis escalated in spring 2008 when the government demanded an investigation into Hizballah’s security cameras at Beirut airport and its autonomous telecommunications network. Tensions turned to violence in May of that year, when Hizballah took over West Beirut by armed force. The government and opposition struck an agreement in Doha, Qatar, to defuse the crisis, and a coalition government was formed that once again included Hizballah ministers. In fact, Hizballah’s position in the government was strengthened by the Doha Accord, which provided the opposition with a blocking third of ministers and essentially gave the Party of God veto power over all government decisions.

Hizballah’s increasingly obvious influence as a kingmaker in Lebanese politics has allowed the party to emphasize its demands for a more Islamic society and perpetual war against Israel. Its success to date is based on a strategy of adapting to the local political structure while maintaining its long-term regional goals....

USIP, 10 Nov 09: Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium

Lebanon's recently announced national unity government has eased fears that the country would once again be mired in a dangerous political stalemate. Yet, despite the recent breakthrough, Lebanon's unstable equilibrium -- marked by both internal and regional tensions - - could still devolve into serious violence. Deep seated sectarian animosities persist, raising the prospects for political instability and civil strife if unaddressed. Regionally, mounting tensions with Israel raise the worrisome possibility of isolated border incidents spiraling into more serious conflict. Taken together these two underlying challenges to stability -- internal civil unrest and regional conflict with Israel -- could undermine Lebanon’s fragile peace. This paper will examine internal challenges to Lebanon’s stability.....

[davidbfpo]

I am sure there have been posts - apart from this thread - although SWC's gaze is often elsewhere.

Link to an IISS Strategic Comment:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...aise-tensions/

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - Farmers armed with machineguns, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars forced government troops to abandon an operation to destroy their illegal cannabis crop in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on Monday, a witness said.

No casualties were reported in the exchange of fire but two security force vehicles were hit by bullets, the witness said.

During Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, the fertile Bekaa Valley produced up to 1,000 metric tons (1.1023 * 1000 tons) of cannabis resin annually and 30 to 50 metric tons of opium, used to make heroin.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...86M0DA20120723

[SWJED]

22 May Washington Post - Lebanon Confronts A Fierce Adversary by Ellen Knickmeyer.

A little-known Islamic militant group based in a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon battled government troops Monday in some of the country's fiercest fighting since the civil war ended in 1990, surprising the Lebanese military with the scope of the group's weaponry and financing.

Tank and artillery fire pounded blocks of the Nahr al-Bared camp, creating towers of black smoke, as the second day of fighting pushed the death toll among soldiers and militants to at least 50. Palestinian officials told news agencies that nine civilians had been killed inside the camp Monday, but there was no word of Sunday's civilian casualties...

[marct]

From CBC.ca

Militants fight Lebanese troops outside refugee camp
Last Updated: Thursday, January 25, 2007 | 5:10 AM ET
The Associated Press

Islamic militants on Thursday fired mortars and rocket-propelled grenades at Lebanese troops as they deployed outside a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon, forcing hundreds of civilians to flee, security officials said.

The soldiers fired back at the Jund al-Sham militants in an exchange that lasted about 10 minutes outside the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp near the southern port of Sidon, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

There was no immediate word of casualties.

It was not clear why the Jund al-Sham, an extremist Muslim group, opened fire. Two weeks ago, there was a similar exchange between members of Jund al-Sham and the national army near Ein el-Hilweh in which two soldiers were wounded.

[SWJED]

22 May NY Times - Lebanese Army and Islamists Battle for 2nd Day by Hassan Fattah.

Lebanese tanks and artillery pounded a Palestinian refugee camp in this northern Lebanese city for the second straight day on Monday, battling members of a radical Islamist group and raising concerns for thousands trapped inside.

Government officials said at least 60 people had been killed — 30 soldiers, 15 militants and 15 civilians — in the fighting that began when a police raid on bank robbers early Sunday escalated into one of Lebanon’s most significant security crises since the end of the civil war in 1990.

The militant group, Fatah al Islam, which is thought to have links to Al Qaeda, fired antiaircraft guns and mortars and had night vision goggles and other sophisticated equipment. The Lebanese Army does not have such gear.

Lebanese television stations reported that among the dead militants were men from Bangladesh, Yemen and other Arab countries...

[aktarian]

Government officials said at least 60 people had been killed — 30 soldiers, 15 militants and 15 civilians — in the fighting that began when a police raid on bank robbers early Sunday escalated into one of Lebanon’s most significant security crises since the end of the civil war in 1990.

I guess author wasn't paying much attention to news last summer.....

[tequila]

Well, to be fair a lot more people have died already in this dustup, and it's not over yet.