Bangladesh: Secular - v- Islamist?

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 27 Oct 08: Islamic Radical Ideologies and South Asian Security: The Case of Bangladesh

Sunni Muslim radicals, a violent and vocal minority, are responsible for the largest number of violent terrorist incidents in the world today. This trend is expected to continue for at least the next decade. South Asia, which is home to 28% of the world’s Muslim population, has been particularly badly hit by the activities of these radicals with the number of violent incidents and deaths in this region ranking second only to Iraq and the Middle East. These radicals are also substantially responsible for the destablilisation of Pakistan and Afghanistan. They are now making a concerted effort to increase their influence Bangladesh, which along with the state of West Bengal in India, is home to 10% of the global Muslim population.....

[davidbfpo]

The mass protests by young people in Dhaka have not been well reported here:

With a huge green and red flag of Bangladesh flying over their heads, they shouted slogans from the liberation war of 1971: “Joy Bangla” (Victory to Bengal); “Tumi ke? Aami ke? Bangalee Bangalee” (Who are you? Who am I? Bengali). They even added some of their own: “Amader ek hi dabi Razakar er fashi” (Our one demand, hang the Razakars); “Jamaat-e-Islami made in Pakistan”.

Shahbag Square is what you make of it. The world is calling it Bangladesh’s own Tahrir Square, some are claiming it is part of the Arab or Muslim Spring, Indians want to know if the Anna Hazare movement is an inspiration. In part, it is an assertion of secular values and an assault on religious fanatics; in part, it is the resurgence of nationalism among the youth.

Link:http://tehelka.com/in-concert-for-ba....OhWLBZnt.dpuf and a very general report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21626843

Today the BBC reports disorder linked to the Islamac party:

Three people have been killed in Bangladesh after demonstrators protesting against the death sentence on an Islamist party leader clashed with police for a third day running.

Link, which includes a very partial witness account:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21639831

[carl]

Reuters says the death toll is up to 30 now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...91R0AN20130228

Over at Brown Pundits they say the flight to India has accelerated.

[carl]

Reuters says up to 60 dead now.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...lobalCoverage2

[davidbfpo]

An OD article on the context for current events:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...limate-of-fear

Incidentally illegally crossing the border with India can result in death; there is a border fence and para-military border guards.

[carl]

The interesting thing about the way things appear to be setting up over there is you have Islamists, who believe Allah is on their side no matter what they do, vs. the relatives of people who were killed in 1971 who blame the Islamists for the deaths of their kin. They want some back. There doesn't seem to be room for compromise.

[Bill Moore]

Putting this in perspective. There is a long history of violent clashes between the Awami League and BNP (to include BNP's ally and to some extent surrogate force JI). Most assessments indicate the Islamists (JI) represent a minority that is losing steam, but a minority in one of the most densely populated nations in the world is still millions of people and a serious security issue if mobilized to fight.

The BNP/JI appear to be losing steam politically, so it is only natural for them based on their philosophy to resort to extremism to stop the gradual (or not so gradual) liberalization of Bangladesh.

The current level of violence isn't bad relatively based on Bangladesh history. This type of violence is usually short lived, but often repeated (cycles). We won't be able to assess the seriousness of the current crisis until more time passes.

There are two parallel movements that are clashing. One is the anti-Islamist movement that the government and majority represent, and the other is the anti-liberalization Spring movement that the BNP and JI represent. The anti-liberalism movement has nothing to do with freeing oppressed peoples, instead those commiting the violence want to oppress the people of Bangladesh with their brand of Sharia law. One can hope PM Hasina successfully enforces the law in a way that contains the violence while still allowing peaceful protests and the democratic process to work.

Places like Bangladesh are a good bellweather to see whether Islamist extremism is gaining or waning.