Some of you know that I am a skeptic when it comes to modeling and simulation of a Small Wars scenario - especially in an urban environment. I have no idea how an intelligent agent (if and when one might ever exist) can model and simulate human behavior to include the intentions of an asymmetric foe, the actions and reactions of a local population, our actions and reactions in a COIN environment that relies on the human behavior of our tactical units - and all the second and third-order effects associated with the kinetic and non-kinetic actions and reactions of all the “players” mentioned above. I could very well be wrong – won’t be the first time – but I would like someone to explain to me in “layman’s terms” why I am so off-base here.

Posted below is the latest JFCOM press release on Urban Resolve – any comments, thoughts, musings, etc. (especially by participants) would be most appreciated. I’ll keep an open mind and stand corrected if proved that my knowledge of the capabilities of M&S of Small Wars is lacking…

Urban Resolve 2015 Leaders Meet with the Media

By Robert Pursell
USJFCOM Public Affairs

(SUFFOLK, VA. - Sept. 20, 2006) -- U.S. Joint Forces Command's (USJFCOM) Joint Experimentation Directorate (J9) and its partners show a behind-the-scenes look at Urban Resolve 2015 (UR 2015) to the media today at the Joint Futures Laboratory here.

The Urban Resolve series helps improve the warfighters' ability to operate and control the urban environment, isolate the adversary, and maintain urban stability by denying the enemy access to physical or information resources from which he could conduct de-stabilizing operations.

J9 Director Rear Adm. James Winnefeld explained the mission of UR 2015 and why the focus is on the urban environment.

"In Urban Resolve, we're trying to find ways to operate more safely and more effectively in that very complex terrain called the urban environment. It's very difficult. It's a crowded place. It's a complicated place. It's not like working out in the middle of the desert. So there are a lot of different problems that we have to try to solve to try to do this job correctly," he said.

Army Col. Mike Postma, the experimentation lead for UR 2015, said the experiment's focus was "to isolate the adversary and control key pieces of the urban environment. It's the major mission of what we're trying to do."

Because the event uses one of USJFCOM's facilities, many of the modeling and simulation tools are available. This allows participants to simulate the scenarios from a room full of laptops, instead of experimenting out in the field. Postma explained the importance of this.

"Nobody's life is at risk inside the experiment. This is the environment that enables you to look at those things without getting anybody hurt," he said.

Winnefeld said the participants of UR 2015 include USJFCOM, Special Operations Command, the Joint Staff, the services, and other U.S. and multinational agencies. He explained the importance of the multinational presence.

"We get a tremendous benefit from working with international allies. One of the principal thrusts of what we do out here in the Joint Futures Lab is working with our multinational partners," said Winnefeld.