Turkey mainly, Iraq and the Kurds (2006-2014)

[jmm99]

Taking Bozkurt literally:

Today, winning the hearts and minds of the Kurdish people living in all four neighboring countries is the most important objective for Turkey. As most Kurds are frustrated with the decades-long PKK terror wreaking havoc on their daily lives, they will largely welcome Turkish troops taking out hard-core militants so that peace and stability can finally come to Kurdish areas.

one might conclude that he is looking forward to a NeoHittite-NeoMitanni Concordat.



Has the Middle East changed that much in 3000+ years ?



Turkey has, as well, to look out for the millions of Turkmen in Syria, Iraq and Iran (HT to wm for that one). Thus, Turkey's Foreign Minister Davidson's (another HT to wm for that translation) visit to Iraqi Kurdistan may have had a multiple symbolism.

[Bill Moore]

Today, winning the hearts and minds of the Kurdish people living in all four neighboring countries is the most important objective for Turkey. As most Kurds are frustrated with the decades-long PKK terror wreaking havoc on their daily lives, they will largely welcome Turkish troops taking out hard-core militants so that peace and stability can finally come to Kurdish areas.

It is difficult to make sense of the various sources and their views on reports of Kurdish maneuvering in Iraq and Syria. It is important to point out that while apparently most Kurds want a Kurdish State, the Kurds are not united. They have numerous political parties, the KDP and PUK being the largest ones, and their relationship with the PKK varies depending on the realpolitik issue in currency.

Key issues that I think bare watching:

- Arab Spring emboldens Kurdish ambition for nationalism (now or never view)

- The various Kurdish parties will likely struggle with each other for power creating opportunities for exploitation by state actors in the region.

- Turkey making direct deals for oil with Kurds without going through Baghdad, which infuriates Baghdad.

- Kurdish peshmerga preventing the Iraqi Army from sealing the Syrian-Iraqi border.

- Maliki is pro-Assad, while Barzani is pro-resistance and is offering support to the resistance from Iraq. Where does Iran stand on this? What actions will they take?

- PKK is increasing it level of activity in Turkey, while KDP and Turkey appear to be reaching an agreement, yet reports of the KDP and PKK making a secret deal.

- Same as it has been for years, the Kurds will be a player, but they will be leveraged by other non-state actors, Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Israel, and probably the U.S.. Without unity how much power will the Kurds ultimately have?

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/14...-oil-deal.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...maliki-barzani

[Surferbeetle]

Key issues that I think bare watching:

- Arab Spring emboldens Kurdish ambition for nationalism (now or never view)

- The various Kurdish parties will likely struggle with each other for power creating opportunities for exploitation by state actors in the region.

- Turkey making direct deals for oil with Kurds without going through Baghdad, which infuriates Baghdad.

- Kurdish peshmerga preventing the Iraqi Army from sealing the Syrian-Iraqi border.

- Maliki is pro-Assad, while Barzani is pro-resistance and is offering support to the resistance from Iraq. Where does Iran stand on this? What actions will they take?

- PKK is increasing it level of activity in Turkey, while KDP and Turkey appear to be reaching an agreement, yet reports of the KDP and PKK making a secret deal.

- Same as it has been for years, the Kurds will be a player, but they will be leveraged by other non-state actors, Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Israel, and probably the U.S.. Without unity how much power will the Kurds ultimately have?

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/14...-oil-deal.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...maliki-barzani

I would add:

President Mam Jalal Talabani and the PUK,

• Wikipedia on Talabani, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jalal_Talabani
• Wikipedia on PUK, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot...n_of_Kurdistan

Mohammed Saleh Muslim and the PYD

• Wikipedia on PYD, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democra...n_Party_(Syria)
• Syrian Kurd party says Turkey should not fear its rise, By Isabel Coles
  DUBAI | Tue Aug 7, 2012 8:05am EDT, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8760HN20120807

Feyli Kurds

• Wikidpedia on the Feylis, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feylis

The KRG and it's boundaries, in particular Kirkuk

• KRG by Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdist...nal_Government
• Kirkuk by Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk

Free-rider-ship problem, for all involved but with emphasis on the extraregional patrons of Turkey, Iran, & Kurdistan

• Wikipedia on Free-rider-ship, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_rider_problem

[Entropy]

Landis on Assad's Kurdish Strategy:

Assad’s Kurdish strategy appears to be to help the PKK to take control of the Kurdish regions of Syria in the North East. His aim is to hurt both the Free Syrian Army and Turkey, which are leading the opposition against him. In general, his strategy is to weaken the Sunni Arabs of Syria.

and

The Kurdish parts of Syria will undoubtedly become the focus of the power struggle that is emerging in the region over Syria. Sunni Arabs and Turks will line up against it. Shiite forces will be inclined to encourage Kurdish independence if only to hurt the Sunni Arabs by playing minorities of every stripe against the against the FSA, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the US.

But what should the Kurds do? All Kurds are looking to take advantage of the collapse of central authority in Syria. They see this as an historic opportunity to press for their freedom and national rights. But how hard should they press and how fast? Should they work with Turkey against Assad or should they fight Turkey and ally with Assad? Is this a moment for caution or for audacity?

[TheCurmudgeon]

I am not a UN analyst, but if the Kurdish area of Syria and the Kurdish area of Iraq were to break away and form an independent state, could they request a UN Peace Keeping presence?