Turkey mainly, Iraq and the Kurds (2006-2014)

[LawVol]

Turkey's top general said Thursday his army — which has been massing troops on the border with Iraq — was prepared to attack separatist Kurdish guerrillas in a cross-border offensive.

Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said the military was ready and awaiting government orders for an incursion, putting pressure on the government to support an offensive that risks straining ties with the United States and Europe and raising tensions with Iraqi Kurds.

Public support for an offensive is high, especially following the recent killings of soldiers and a suicide bombing that killed six people

Link: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,276932,00.html

So what does this mean? Is this threat real or just posturing? Part of the justification for not pulling out of Iraq is so that a regional war does not develop. This move would seem to spark it. What role will the peshmerga play? Will they fight Turkey or the PKK? What about the Iraqi government? What will their reaction be to this threat to their sovereignty?

[Ski]

The threat is very real. Over 15,000 Turks were killed fighting with Kurdish seperatists from the 1980's onward through today. The Turks will not and do not mess around when it comes to Kurds.

Now, will they actually do this?

I don't think it's posturing at all. I also don't think it will lead to a regional war - unless the Iranians and Syrians join in with attacks on their Kurdish populations - and then we are in a seriously tight spot. The Peshmerga will fight the Turks first, and the PKK second...ethnicity will win out.

Don't want to lay odds on the situation but there is no love lost between both sides here.

[wm]

While I do not discount the longstanding animosity between Turks and Kurds causing an unfortunate engagement, I do doubt the Turks will actually mount a major cross border incursion. Having a low level border viloation omething that they can explain away as an "oops, sorry I didn't mean to cross the border but I was in hot pursuit of these PKK bad boys ," seems well within the range of the posible. What I cannot speak to is the reaction by the folks on the Iraqi side of the border. Given the amount of Turkish investment into the Iraqi Kurds' economy, there may be a lot of room for maneuver.