There is some interesting information out there about the MeK turning into a cult post-2003. This is probably going to play out more along the lines of Waco.Originally Posted by Tom Odom
What's amazing is the amount of restraint the GoI is showing in dealing with the MeK. I might be a hopeless optimist, but this might mark the begining of a responsible GoI that's part of the world community.
Not sure that I agree or disagree - just curious what you mean.
How would you have expected the GoI to act? These are individuals whom Iran wants done away with - something that the GoI might prefer to do for them, as a political gesture to smooth relations. But these are also individuals who have some protected status under humanitarian law, so dumping them in a mass grave or locking them up concentration-camp-style are not options as long as US military, diplomats, NGOs, and western media are looking over their shoulders.
It seems to me that on a path of options available to the GoI, narrowed on one side by Iranian pressure and on the other by western pressure, this was straight down the middle. While I could not have predicted the specific actions taken and the precise timing, what they did doesn't seem very surprising to me.
This doesn’t only benefit the Iranians. These people believe in just about every failed theory of governance that has been attempted in the 20th century. They're not reasonable people and to presume that they could be somehow integrated into Iraqi society isn't a manageable expectation.
This was an internal policing action by a sovereign nation, not a military opeartion - and that's what's so surprising.
Its also not an either/or situation. The GoI could do what they usually do with internal groups that disagree with them... round up the leaders and toss them into prisons never to reappear again. Just the fact that they used nonlethal methods to deal with this shows a lot of forethought and control.But these are also individuals who have some protected status under humanitarian law, so dumping them in a mass grave or locking them up concentration-camp-style are not options as long as US military, diplomats, NGOs, and western media are looking over their shoulders.
Not a lot of people are going to criticize the action the Iraqis took because there’s nothing there to criticize. That's nothing short of a miracle considering how sensitive this situiation is.
I have to agree with you. During my last tour, I spend several weeks at Ashraf interviewing members of the MeK. They are, in the better sense of the word, a cult. This will never end well. Once the GoI go into that compound to round up the members you will see them on the BBC burning themselves. They have done it before in France, and I am almost certain they will do it again here.
Unfortunately, only a small population of these members are really the puppet masters. The rest are the leftovers from the Iran/Iraq war or peasant farmers that were dubbed into joining. They have definitely drunk the koolaid and this will have catastrophic implications in the long run. Problem #1… giving a terrorist organization Protected Persons status in 2003. We all know who to thank for that one.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-31-2009 at 12:34 PM. Reason: pheasant to peasant, coolaide to koolaid
RAND, 30 Jul 09: The Mujahedin-e Khalq in Iraq: A Policy Conundrum
From the early weeks of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) until January 2009, coalition forces detained and provided security for members of the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MeK), an exiled Iranian dissident cult group living in Iraq. At the outset of OIF, the MeK was designated a hostile force, largely because of its history of cooperation with Saddam Hussein’s military in the Iran-Iraq War and its alleged involvement in his suppression of the Shia and Kurdish uprisings that followed the Gulf War of 1991. Since 1997, the MeK has been listed as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the United States because of the attacks it has conducted against Iranian targets since the time of its founding in 1965—and particularly due to the assassinations of three U.S. Army officers and three U.S. civilian contractors in Tehran during the 1970s, which were attributed to the MeK. Despite their belief that the MeK did not pose a security threat, coalition forces detained the group and provided protection to prevent the Iraqi government from expelling MeK members to Iran, even though Iran had granted the MeK rank and file amnesty from prosecution. The coalition’s decision to provide security for an FTO was very controversial because it placed the United States in the position of protecting a group that it had labeled a terrorist organization. Among many resulting complications, this policy conundrum has made the United States vulnerable to charges of hypocrisy in the war on terrorism.....
I'm not really sure that the MeK "matters" in the long run. Its going to be rather catastrophic if you're in the MeK, but I'm not sure that anyone will really make an issue out of the MeK going away forever.
The real question is if this will embolden the GoI to go after some other loose ends before the Americans leave. And why wouldn't they? If I was in the Sons of Iraq and didn't want to take a GoI job, I would be paying close attention to what goes on in Ashraf....
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks