Revoking our support to the Turks worked real well when they invaded Cyprus in 1974.Originally Posted by SteveMetz
By the way, I don't think we have anything like the Habur Gate or a twisty little road from the Mediterranean to the Turkey-Iraq border that we can close to the Turks, or do we?
Revoking our support to the Turks worked real well when they invaded Cyprus in 1974.
By the way, I don't think we have anything like the Habur Gate or a twisty little road from the Mediterranean to the Turkey-Iraq border that we can close to the Turks, or do we?
To tell you the truth, this could be a good thing. An external threat might focus the attention of Iraqis and encourage them to move toward resolution of their internal problems.
Unlikely. Given the remarkably divergent views of the different Iraqi communities towards the various heavily-armed foreigners (Americans, Iranians, foreign Arabs) already in their country, I think the addition of Turks will probably only lead to further splits as factions jockey for advantage.
The Turks have been playing the game in the north for as long as we have and already have dancing partners. One wonders who else will sign up for Turkish funds if Ankara comes in strength.
Again, I suggest a review of the Cyprus situation. A Turkish threat in Northern Iraq would probably be welcomed by factions in the south as a way of eliminating the Kurdish problem--a lot of Iraqis have about as little use for Kurds as the Turks and many Iranians do.
Your post suggests that there is a strong sense of Iraqi national sentiment. If this were the case, which I seriously doubt, then we would not have the sort of problems that we currently see in country. What the Iraqis most lack, IMHO, is a sense of a national identity. If they had one, I believe the Iraqis would close their borders to outside threats and band together to solve their internal security problems.
I submit that the presuppositions about Iraqis unifying in the face of a common foe as expressed in the above quotation reflect the same type of thinking that led to the adoption of the US small footprint approach in Iraq. It was mistakenly presumed that the Iraqi populace would pull together for the greater good of Iraq once we helped them get rid of that small group of bad guys (Saddam and his Ba'athists) who were holding the majority down.
Iraq represents a conflict, like that found in 18th and 19th Century US (and still to some extent today), between the adherents of states' rights and the supporters of Federalism. In Iraq, however, the states' rights (or tribal rights to be more correct) seem to have the upper hand across the country.
Most other countries in the world have not had the same level of success in "melting pot" experiments that America had in the 19th and 20th Centuries.
Of course many of those other countries also did not choose to engage in the experiment on their own--it was forced down their throats by other countries, much as we seem bent on doing in Iraq today.
Pretty close to the truth. The Turks having a go at Iraqi Kurdistan yet again will not bother the Shi'a and Sunni Arab Iraqi factions, let alone distract them much from their own internecine fighting. However, it will serve to further fragment what (pathetically) little cohesiveness exists within the Iraqi central government, as Kurdish representatives make a (futile) attempt to obtain support from their Arab partners along the lines that Steve mentions.
FYI, there is a lot of good discussion on and around this subject in the Kurdistan IO E-Mail thread.
Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 10 Jul 07:
Firefight in Iraq Exposes Presence of Turkish Al-Qaeda Operatives
The northward moves by Kurdish rebels into Turkey in recent weeks and their bombings of Turkish military and civilian targets have been reported extensively, as have the consequent threats by the Turkish military to move into Iraq to bring about a halt to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attacks. A firefight with U.S. forces in Iraq on June 23, however, has shed light on the hitherto lesser known southward flow of foreign fighters out of Turkey into Iraq and the role of Turkish al-Qaeda in overseeing that movement....
Bush's Turkish Gamble
Bush's Turkish Gamble - Robert D. Novak op-ed, Washington Post, 30 July.
The morass in Iraq and deepening difficulties in Afghanistan have not deterred the Bush administration from taking on a dangerous and questionable new secret operation. High-level U.S. officials are working with their Turkish counterparts on a joint military operation to suppress Kurdish guerrillas and capture their leaders. Through covert activity, their goal is to forestall Turkey from invading Iraq.
While detailed operational plans are necessarily concealed, the broad outlines have been presented to select members of Congress as required by law. U.S. Special Forces are to work with the Turkish army to suppress the Kurds' guerrilla campaign. The Bush administration is trying to prevent another front from opening in Iraq, which would have disastrous consequences. But this gamble risks major exposure and failure ...
Turkey to warn Iraq on Rebel Sanctuaries
Turkey to warn Iraq on Rebel Sanctuaries - Washington Post, 6 Aug.
Turkish leaders this week will give visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki what Turkish military commanders and analysts said could be a final warning to act against anti-Turkey Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq -- or to stand by while Turkish forces go after the rebels themselves, risking a new front in Iraq's war.
Leaders of Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party appear to be in agreement with Turkey's generals that the time has come to move against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, known by its Kurdish initials, PKK, in its bases in the mountains of northern Iraq, former generals and a military expert close to the Turkish military's general staff said.
At least 30,000 people have been killed since the Kurdish rebels launched a campaign in 1984 for an independent Kurdish homeland in eastern Turkey. Clashes and bombs this week killed 14 Turkish soldiers and rebel fighters. The rebels also kidnapped eight residents of a Kurdish village in the east.
Turkey accuses Iraq's Kurds -- who have built a nearly autonomous Kurdish state in northern Iraq under protection of the U.S. military since the early 1990s -- of giving the Kurdish rebels a haven and allowing them free passage back and forth across the Iraqi border into Turkey.
"The Turkish people want the government to do something, and in this case, the Turkish military and government now coincide," retired Turkish Maj. Gen. Armagan Kuloglu said in a telephone interview from the Turkish capital of Ankara ...
...
Baran and some others expect U.S. forces to join in if Turkey does act against the rebels in northern Iraq. The scenario most often cited is an operation involving U.S. and Turkish special forces already in northern Iraq.
"I do believe that the Americans . . . are probably getting ready to do something jointly with Turkey, but they really don't want the Turks to go on their own," Baran said ...
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