Googleing COIN in Iraq

[tequila]

Rob, interesting idea. However I have to question it somewhat.

The problem in the Middle East is not necessarily lack of information. Iraqis are now experiencing something of a media revolution especially compared to Saddam Hussein's time. The Arab mediascape began to really change with the Gulf War in 1991, which helped give birth to satellite television (also in the United States with the 24-hour news cycle as pioneered by CNN, which really became viable during the Gulf War). First came Saudi-run MBC from London, and then al-Jazeera in 1996, which was a genuinely popular revelation. The most popular shows were those that featured genuine political debate in the Crossfire style, which were utterly unknown on Arab media before al-Jazeera.

Since then, al-Jazeera has spawned competitors like al-Arabiya, Abu Dhabi, al-Manar, LBC al-Hayat, etc. America has jumped in with al-Hurra and Radio Sawa, though there are doubts as to how effective those have been.

The problem is that debate and the free exchange of ideas on the internet, while great, are hardly requisite for genuine democracy or civil society or the spread of Western values. These were around before the Internet. Indeed, I would argue that regular users of the internet represent a relatively unrepresentative slice of American society and an even less representative one in Arab countries. The curve here is towards younger, better-off, literate members of society. As we have seen, the violent radicals have had no problem flourishing amongst this demographic. Despite this vast new universe of information flow, with exposure to political debate, radicalism has only increased since the 1990s.

Before we start working on the free exchange of info and ideas via the Internet, I think we need to get the basic services up and running first. It's hard to contribute to web forums if the neighborhood has only 3 hours of power or you're too afraid to go out because of the car bombs; impossible if you can't read because you've lost four years of education because it's not safe to go to school or leave the house.

The idea may have more merit in reforming already stabilized but decrepit societies. It might be an interesting idea for places like Egypt or Jordan. But even then I have questions. For instance, both the Egyptian and Iranian blogospheres are good examples of the relative impotence of computer-literate, politically activated groups. In both countries, the bloggers and their audience are urbanized, already Westernized elite youth with little connection to the most powerful political trends in their societies. They are more capable of gaining quick publicity and mentions in the Western media than in sparking a mass movement or cultural trend in wider society.

In Iran, the youth-led reform movement has essentially died on the vine. In Egypt, the major political movement other than the NPD establishment is the Muslim Brotherhood, which features relatively few bloggers but many successful hospitals, mosques, clinics, and parliamentary candidates.